Celtics vs. Heat: Top NBA Bet For Game 6
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Effort
After Miami lost Game 5, Heat players cited lack of effort and lack of energy as reasons for their defeat.
They were not being superficial and they were not only referring to their performance on the defensive side of the ball.
Offensively, Miami is driven by repeated movement and repeated screening. They rank fourth among playoff teams in accruing 10.2 screen assists per game.
Bam Adebayo
More or less rightly so, Miami big man Bam Adebayo shouldered the blame for the Heat defeat and the team's lack of effort.
He is a big part of Miami’s offensive game because the Heat rely on him more than anybody else gets relied on to accrue touches in the paint — this is a statistical fact — and they rely on Adebayo to facilitate offense.
In Game 4, for example, Adebayo executed a DHO (dribble hand-off) or a ball-screen on over half of his team’s offensive possessions.
When Adebayo performs either action, he forces Boston defenders to move — specifically, to lose focus on their man in order to react to what the Heat are doing.
Adebayo himself, who had converted over 60 percent of his field goal attempts and scored over 20 points in each of Miami’s last three games before Game 6, is a threat at the basket.
When someone else doesn’t get open off of his set screen, Adebayo is able to roll to the basket.
In Game 6, he missed a lot of easy looks, a lot of must-make bunnies. He was also softer than usual going up at the rim. His lack of scoring is a product of the lack of energy and lack of activity that Heat players cited as reasons for why they lost Game 5.
Expect Adebayo to pick his game back up, to be stronger and more accurate in front of the basket and to go back to scoring over 20 points per game.
Other Miami Scorers
It’s apparent from watching film that the Celtics haven’t proven reliable at all in containing Miami’s ball-screen game because of the sundry ways in which the Heat can either attack the basket or score without attacking it.
Boston has done what active defenses should so, which is mix in a variety of defensive coverages in an attempt to unsettle Heat scorers by giving them different looks.
One common beneficiary of Adebayo’s DHOs has been Duncan Robinson. Either via the DHO or the pick-and-roll, Robinson wants especially to showcase his sharp-shooting skills.
You’ll see flares, curls, and other kinds of movement in order to create open three-point opportunities from Robinson.
A common theme here is the threat in front of the basket that Celtic defenders have to account for at the same time, which makes life easier for Robinson.
So the three-point attempts are consistently there. On Friday, they mostly weren’t falling, which helps explain why Miami lost. Oddly enough — but not oddly, really — the game still flew „over“ the total.
Dragic
Another common theme in these past three games — all of which have gone „over“ — has been the reduced efficiency from three and the reduced scoring output from Goran Dragic.
For example, Dragic had two of his worst three-point shooting efforts in Miami’s last three games.
Part of his problem is created by the elite defensive presence of Marcus Smart. It would be deceptive of me not to mention him and the NBA-wide accolades that he’s received for his strong defense.
Dragic can still he effective when Miami’s ball movement forces Smart to help off of Dragic, which then frees him from Smart’s defensive presence.
But Dragic’s lack of scoring also means that guys like Adebayo and Robinson score more points. Tyler Herro, who scored 37 points in Game 5 while converting five of 10 three-point attempts, is also somebody who can go off for Miami.
Dragic’s regression is reflective of Miami’s worsened efficiency in contested shot attempts. In three games in this series, they converted over 52 percent of those attempts.
One should expect the Heat, in Game 6, to go back to doing what they had been doing so well all series, which is making tough shots with their plethora of three-point shooters.
Shooting-wise, in a game that still flew „over,“ Miami was off trying to do what it likes to do best. The Heat shot a postseason-low (for them) 7-of-36 (19.4 percent) from three.
For starters, Dragic has always been good in this postseason about bouncing back after a slow performance.
But the broader point is that Miami has too many good shooters and too many ways — especially via its ball-screen game as it withstands Boston’s varied ball-screen defense — to get them into favorable positions.
Boston’s Pick & Roll
Like Miami, the Celtics favor with relative emphasis their pick-and-roll attack. Based on PPP (points per play), they also rank fourth in the playoffs.
Miami, too, has thrown what it can at them. The Heat, during the regular season, were more known for their drop coverage. But they’ve tried to move away from this kind of coverage especially against teams with the shooting ability to exploit it.
In this respect, the return of Gordon Hayward is huge for Boston’s point total. When the Heat go with their drop coverage, he capitalizes by pulling up in the mid-range game. Statistically speaking, he has been and is one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers between the three-point line and the paint.
It’s not just Hayward, either.
Jayson Tatum is one of the most efficient at three-point pull-up shooters. When he doesn’t utilize a created one-on-one mismatch to drive inside, he can use his comfort in isolation to produce a three.
His scoring output has been increasing on a game-by-game basis. On Friday he put up 31.
What makes Boston interesting is its ability to rely on bigs like Enes Kanter for offense. Kanter made a positive difference and was immediately efficient (he made his first four attempts from the field) when he entered Game 5.
His presence at the basket punishes the Heat for not utilizing drop coverage. No matter what the Heat decide for their ball-screen defense, they lose.
Jaylen Brown
Boston has fixed Jaylen Brown’s deficit in touches.
He rewards Boston for getting him the ball more by being a consistent scorer. He’s scored over 20 points while converting over 50 percent of his field goal attempts in four straight games now.
In particular, his natural slashing ability makes him difficult to out-body and contain as he attacks the basket with a variety of moves off the dribble.
The Verdict
We’ve seen three straight „overs“ between both teams. This trend has withstood some postseason-worst shooting performances because of what each team brings with its bevy of options particularly in the pick-and-roll game.
Teams have made adjustments, but ones that, at best, only change who scores and don’t reduce scoring output. One example here is Dragic scoring less so that his teammates score more.
We also see changes, like greater involvement from Brown, that work positively for the offense.
Best Bet: Over 214 (-105) at Heritage
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida
Effort
After Miami lost Game 5, Heat players cited lack of effort and lack of energy as reasons for their defeat.
They were not being superficial and they were not only referring to their performance on the defensive side of the ball.
Offensively, Miami is driven by repeated movement and repeated screening. They rank fourth among playoff teams in accruing 10.2 screen assists per game.
Bam Adebayo
More or less rightly so, Miami big man Bam Adebayo shouldered the blame for the Heat defeat and the team's lack of effort.
He is a big part of Miami’s offensive game because the Heat rely on him more than anybody else gets relied on to accrue touches in the paint — this is a statistical fact — and they rely on Adebayo to facilitate offense.
In Game 4, for example, Adebayo executed a DHO (dribble hand-off) or a ball-screen on over half of his team’s offensive possessions.
When Adebayo performs either action, he forces Boston defenders to move — specifically, to lose focus on their man in order to react to what the Heat are doing.
Adebayo himself, who had converted over 60 percent of his field goal attempts and scored over 20 points in each of Miami’s last three games before Game 6, is a threat at the basket.
When someone else doesn’t get open off of his set screen, Adebayo is able to roll to the basket.
In Game 6, he missed a lot of easy looks, a lot of must-make bunnies. He was also softer than usual going up at the rim. His lack of scoring is a product of the lack of energy and lack of activity that Heat players cited as reasons for why they lost Game 5.
Expect Adebayo to pick his game back up, to be stronger and more accurate in front of the basket and to go back to scoring over 20 points per game.
Other Miami Scorers
It’s apparent from watching film that the Celtics haven’t proven reliable at all in containing Miami’s ball-screen game because of the sundry ways in which the Heat can either attack the basket or score without attacking it.
Boston has done what active defenses should so, which is mix in a variety of defensive coverages in an attempt to unsettle Heat scorers by giving them different looks.
One common beneficiary of Adebayo’s DHOs has been Duncan Robinson. Either via the DHO or the pick-and-roll, Robinson wants especially to showcase his sharp-shooting skills.
You’ll see flares, curls, and other kinds of movement in order to create open three-point opportunities from Robinson.
A common theme here is the threat in front of the basket that Celtic defenders have to account for at the same time, which makes life easier for Robinson.
So the three-point attempts are consistently there. On Friday, they mostly weren’t falling, which helps explain why Miami lost. Oddly enough — but not oddly, really — the game still flew „over“ the total.
Dragic
Another common theme in these past three games — all of which have gone „over“ — has been the reduced efficiency from three and the reduced scoring output from Goran Dragic.
For example, Dragic had two of his worst three-point shooting efforts in Miami’s last three games.
Part of his problem is created by the elite defensive presence of Marcus Smart. It would be deceptive of me not to mention him and the NBA-wide accolades that he’s received for his strong defense.
Dragic can still he effective when Miami’s ball movement forces Smart to help off of Dragic, which then frees him from Smart’s defensive presence.
But Dragic’s lack of scoring also means that guys like Adebayo and Robinson score more points. Tyler Herro, who scored 37 points in Game 5 while converting five of 10 three-point attempts, is also somebody who can go off for Miami.
Dragic’s regression is reflective of Miami’s worsened efficiency in contested shot attempts. In three games in this series, they converted over 52 percent of those attempts.
One should expect the Heat, in Game 6, to go back to doing what they had been doing so well all series, which is making tough shots with their plethora of three-point shooters.
Shooting-wise, in a game that still flew „over,“ Miami was off trying to do what it likes to do best. The Heat shot a postseason-low (for them) 7-of-36 (19.4 percent) from three.
For starters, Dragic has always been good in this postseason about bouncing back after a slow performance.
But the broader point is that Miami has too many good shooters and too many ways — especially via its ball-screen game as it withstands Boston’s varied ball-screen defense — to get them into favorable positions.
Boston’s Pick & Roll
Like Miami, the Celtics favor with relative emphasis their pick-and-roll attack. Based on PPP (points per play), they also rank fourth in the playoffs.
Miami, too, has thrown what it can at them. The Heat, during the regular season, were more known for their drop coverage. But they’ve tried to move away from this kind of coverage especially against teams with the shooting ability to exploit it.
In this respect, the return of Gordon Hayward is huge for Boston’s point total. When the Heat go with their drop coverage, he capitalizes by pulling up in the mid-range game. Statistically speaking, he has been and is one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers between the three-point line and the paint.
It’s not just Hayward, either.
Jayson Tatum is one of the most efficient at three-point pull-up shooters. When he doesn’t utilize a created one-on-one mismatch to drive inside, he can use his comfort in isolation to produce a three.
His scoring output has been increasing on a game-by-game basis. On Friday he put up 31.
What makes Boston interesting is its ability to rely on bigs like Enes Kanter for offense. Kanter made a positive difference and was immediately efficient (he made his first four attempts from the field) when he entered Game 5.
His presence at the basket punishes the Heat for not utilizing drop coverage. No matter what the Heat decide for their ball-screen defense, they lose.
Jaylen Brown
Boston has fixed Jaylen Brown’s deficit in touches.
He rewards Boston for getting him the ball more by being a consistent scorer. He’s scored over 20 points while converting over 50 percent of his field goal attempts in four straight games now.
In particular, his natural slashing ability makes him difficult to out-body and contain as he attacks the basket with a variety of moves off the dribble.
The Verdict
We’ve seen three straight „overs“ between both teams. This trend has withstood some postseason-worst shooting performances because of what each team brings with its bevy of options particularly in the pick-and-roll game.
Teams have made adjustments, but ones that, at best, only change who scores and don’t reduce scoring output. One example here is Dragic scoring less so that his teammates score more.
We also see changes, like greater involvement from Brown, that work positively for the offense.
Best Bet: Over 214 (-105) at Heritage
