Game 6 Celtics-Heat: Oddsmakers Keep Disrespecting Caleb Martin and Derrick White
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
Derrick White's Teammates
Boston is well-known to have a plethora of good shooters.
As such, it might sometimes feel like a gamble to determine which player will perform well on a given night.
Malcolm Brogdon's teammates are at an advantage because he is hurt.
Currently, Brogdon is listed as a game-time decision with a right forearm strain.
His injury is significant because he plays an extensive role in the Celtics' offense.
While healthy, he scored 19 points in 37 minutes in Game 1 and 13 points in 26 minutes in Game 2.
Since then, however, he's played as few as eight minutes and has scored a combined total of two points in Boston's last three games.
Without Brogdon, other Celtics' players will get more playing time and will be expected to do more for their team's offense.
Derrick White's Three-Point Total
Currently, the over/under for Derrick White's three-pointers made is 2.5.
I prefer the "over" on his three-pointers made to the "over" on his point total because his scoring is heavily tied to his three-point shooting.
Therefore, we get more value by investing in his three-pointers made.
Oddsmakers continue to underrate White. He has made at least three three-pointers in every game in this series.
Evidently, he is in great shooting form.
Besides Brogdon's troubles, White's current excellence is unsurprising because he is normally an efficient shooter.
White is converting 47.9 percent of his three-point attempts in this postseason.
He is getting a lot of volume, which is itself promising against a team like Miami that allows a lot of open three-point attempts.
Best Bet: Derrick White over 2.5 three point field goals made at -106 with BetOnline
Caleb Martin's Teammates
Miami relies on many different pretty good players to produce sufficient offense.
One may therefore find the endeavor to invest in individual Heat players of doubtful value.
But such doubts are especially misplaced with the injury to Gabe Vincent.
Vincent is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
He is averaging 17.5 points on 9.5 field goal attempts in this series, so his absence would create significant room for other Heat players to attempt more shots and score more points.
Besides Vincent's potential absence, Kyle Lowry has disappointed tremendously in this series.
After his Game 1 performance, which was propelled by an unusually efficient three-point shooting output, he has scored zero, seven, five, and five in his next four respective games.
Lowry's lack of contribution to his team's offense creates additional space for other Heat scorers.
Caleb Martin
The over/under for Caleb Martin's point total is 13.5.
Martin is so clearly worth investing in because he has not even needed Vincent to be absent or Lowry to struggle in order to exceed 13 points.
In Game 1, with Lowry playing well and Vincent likewise present, Martin still scored 15 points.
Martin has scored over 13 points in every game so far, indicating that oddsmakers are undervaluing him.
While Martin is averaging 2.8 made threes per game and benefitting from good ball movement and sundry open looks, his scoring is not tied too closely to his three-point shooting.
His versatility indicates that we should invest in his point total rather than his three-pointers made.
Best Bet: Caleb Martin over 13.5 points at -118 with BetOnline
Jimmy Butler
The over/under for Jimmy Butler's point total sits at 29.5 points.
This total might seem too high given Butler's last performance.
He mustered 14 points in Miami's Game 5 debacle.
In a sense, this low point total is a good thing because it's partially a product of his extra bench time.
He received additional rest time in order to be extra fresh and well-prepared for tonight's game.
But, of course, his extra rest time does not explain why he scored only 14 points.
His effort and usual aggression were not apparent.
He also missed a surprising number of easy looks at the basket.
Simply put, he was off.
It was, in other words, not anything that Boston did. The Celtics did not figure out how to stop him but benefitted from his bad night.
Bounce-Back
Nicknamed "Playoff Jimmy," Butler is well-known for his superior play in the postseason, which is a result of the fact that his style of play is more well-suited for the nature of postseason play, which is characterized by game-to-game tactical adjustments against the same opponent, than for the regular season.
So, when Butler has a bad game, one should expect him to bounce back because he normally plays well in the postseason.
In Game 3, for example, Butler mustered 16 points before scoring 29 points in Game 4.
In his last Game 6 against Boston, he bounced back for a 47-point output.
This output even outdoes his 35-point Game 1 effort in this series, which reflects Boston's inability to contain his drive and mid-range game.
Best Bet: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 points at -114 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Kaseya Center in Miami
- Malcolm Brogdon won't be his usual self, if he even plays, leaving room for his teammates to score more points
- Derrick White enjoys great shooting form
- White is receiving a lot of volume, which he deserves for being a superb shooter especially in this postseason
Derrick White's Teammates
Boston is well-known to have a plethora of good shooters.
As such, it might sometimes feel like a gamble to determine which player will perform well on a given night.
Malcolm Brogdon's teammates are at an advantage because he is hurt.
Currently, Brogdon is listed as a game-time decision with a right forearm strain.
His injury is significant because he plays an extensive role in the Celtics' offense.
While healthy, he scored 19 points in 37 minutes in Game 1 and 13 points in 26 minutes in Game 2.
Since then, however, he's played as few as eight minutes and has scored a combined total of two points in Boston's last three games.
Without Brogdon, other Celtics' players will get more playing time and will be expected to do more for their team's offense.
Derrick White's Three-Point Total
Currently, the over/under for Derrick White's three-pointers made is 2.5.
I prefer the "over" on his three-pointers made to the "over" on his point total because his scoring is heavily tied to his three-point shooting.
Therefore, we get more value by investing in his three-pointers made.
Oddsmakers continue to underrate White. He has made at least three three-pointers in every game in this series.
Evidently, he is in great shooting form.
Besides Brogdon's troubles, White's current excellence is unsurprising because he is normally an efficient shooter.
White is converting 47.9 percent of his three-point attempts in this postseason.
He is getting a lot of volume, which is itself promising against a team like Miami that allows a lot of open three-point attempts.
Best Bet: Derrick White over 2.5 three point field goals made at -106 with BetOnline
- Caleb Martin will receive less competition for scoring from teammates Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry
- Oddsmakers regularly underrate Martin irrespective of Vincent or Lowry's presence
- Martin is a versatile scorer
Caleb Martin's Teammates
Miami relies on many different pretty good players to produce sufficient offense.
One may therefore find the endeavor to invest in individual Heat players of doubtful value.
But such doubts are especially misplaced with the injury to Gabe Vincent.
Vincent is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
He is averaging 17.5 points on 9.5 field goal attempts in this series, so his absence would create significant room for other Heat players to attempt more shots and score more points.
Besides Vincent's potential absence, Kyle Lowry has disappointed tremendously in this series.
After his Game 1 performance, which was propelled by an unusually efficient three-point shooting output, he has scored zero, seven, five, and five in his next four respective games.
Lowry's lack of contribution to his team's offense creates additional space for other Heat scorers.
Caleb Martin
The over/under for Caleb Martin's point total is 13.5.
Martin is so clearly worth investing in because he has not even needed Vincent to be absent or Lowry to struggle in order to exceed 13 points.
In Game 1, with Lowry playing well and Vincent likewise present, Martin still scored 15 points.
Martin has scored over 13 points in every game so far, indicating that oddsmakers are undervaluing him.
While Martin is averaging 2.8 made threes per game and benefitting from good ball movement and sundry open looks, his scoring is not tied too closely to his three-point shooting.
His versatility indicates that we should invest in his point total rather than his three-pointers made.
Best Bet: Caleb Martin over 13.5 points at -118 with BetOnline
- Jimmy Butler was simply off last game; Boston has not figured him out
- Butler is stronger in the postseason in general and is a reliable bounce-back candidate
- The Celtics lack the defensive ability to contain Butler's drive and mid-range game
Jimmy Butler
The over/under for Jimmy Butler's point total sits at 29.5 points.
This total might seem too high given Butler's last performance.
He mustered 14 points in Miami's Game 5 debacle.
In a sense, this low point total is a good thing because it's partially a product of his extra bench time.
He received additional rest time in order to be extra fresh and well-prepared for tonight's game.
But, of course, his extra rest time does not explain why he scored only 14 points.
His effort and usual aggression were not apparent.
He also missed a surprising number of easy looks at the basket.
Simply put, he was off.
It was, in other words, not anything that Boston did. The Celtics did not figure out how to stop him but benefitted from his bad night.
Bounce-Back
Nicknamed "Playoff Jimmy," Butler is well-known for his superior play in the postseason, which is a result of the fact that his style of play is more well-suited for the nature of postseason play, which is characterized by game-to-game tactical adjustments against the same opponent, than for the regular season.
So, when Butler has a bad game, one should expect him to bounce back because he normally plays well in the postseason.
In Game 3, for example, Butler mustered 16 points before scoring 29 points in Game 4.
In his last Game 6 against Boston, he bounced back for a 47-point output.
This output even outdoes his 35-point Game 1 effort in this series, which reflects Boston's inability to contain his drive and mid-range game.
Best Bet: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 points at -114 with BetOnline
