Ok let's get some thoughts down here.
We have ourselves a historic matchup in this game. Statistically speaking we have a historic pass offense vs a historic pass defense. I'm not going to dive too deep into the numbers here but by most metrics the Seahawks have at least a top five pass defense of all time this season. I prefer to look at adjusted net yards per attempt. It is described perfectly in this article....
http://www.footballperspective.com/putting-the-2013-seahawks-pass-defense-in-perspective/
We begin with the base statistic to measure pass defenses, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Team passing yards and team passing yards allowed, unlike individual passing yards, count sack yards lost against a team’s passing yards total. So to calculate ANY/A on the team level, we use the formula (Passing Yards + 20*TD – 45*INT) divided by (Attempts + Sacks). The Seahawks allowed just 3.19 ANY/A this year, which was 1.20 ANY/A better than any other defense this season. In fact, it was so good that it enabled Seattle to easily post the best ANY/A differential (offensive ANY/A minus defensive ANY/A) in the league, too. The Seahawks 3.19 average is the 4th best average in the least 20 years (behind only the 1996 Packers, 2002 Bucs, and 2008 Steelers). But what makes Seattle’s accomplishment more impressive is the passing environment of the NFL in 2013.
In that article the author goes on to show several measures which put this years Seahawks team as top five pass defense in the past 60+ years.
We we all know that this years Broncos set the passing world on fire. Manning set the records for just about every single year passing feat there is. They have four receivers that have 10 or more TDs etc etc etc. not really much needs to be said other than the fact that they can score points with the all time best teams.
Lets look deeper. Seattle led the league with a 9.9 yards per completion clip. They simply don't give up deep completions. Even more interesting to me given this matchup is the fact that they don't allow many yards after contact. They are tackling machines. They again led the league with a 4.1 yards after the catch average. Why is this important here? The Broncos make their living with short passing and YAC. Manning only sported a 7.8 yards per completion rate this year (28th) but he led the league in YAC with more than 2500.
Seattles brand of defense is perfectly suited to stop the Denver passing game IMO. Manning is really going to be tested. If the Seahawks can disrupt his timing by rushing four as they have done all season it may be a very ugly game for Denver.
When Seattle has the ball the obvious thing is Lynch. He simply shows up in big games. The Broncos have statistically speaking a great rush defense but that doesn't tell the story. Most teams had to abandon the rush because they couldn't match up with the Broncos pass defense. That's not the case here. I think Lynch will see a min of 25 carries. He will be successful too IMO. The Broncos are just too banged up on defense. I keep going back to the Chargers win over the Broncos and Ryan Matthews. He gashed them over and over and controlled that game. He isn't half the back that Lynch is.
If the run game is working it only opens up things for Wilson to operate. He just threw for 215 yards vs a MUCH better 49ers defense. Now he gets to operate vs a defense missing its best pass rusher and best chance to contain the edge (Von Miller), and it's best corner (Chris Harris). The Broncos are also again without safety Rahim Moore. The weapons for Wilson to throw to are nothing special with the exception of Harvin. His presence opens up everything however. If you need any confirmation of that just take a look at the offense with him in his return a couple weeks back vs the offense after he got concussed. If he stays healthy he makes a difference in this game plain and simple. That's why I sprinkled some money on the Harvin for MVP prop. To simplify it a bit more, Seattle has scored points against much better defenses this year and Denver has surrendered points vs much worse offenses this year.
I like like the Seahawks by 7-10 Pts in the end.
Here are some links to some great write ups that I agree with as well.
http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-xlviii-denverseattle-preview/
http://grantland.com/features/the-official-super-bowl-preview/
