OK here we go....
This game looks in most areas to be a great match up. They are very similar in most aspects, a couple of high powered offenses lead by QBs having amazing seasons. A great coach vs a VERY good coach. Tons of weapons all over the field. A good defense vs one that is playing much better than their numbers suggest both of these defenses are going to give up a TON of yardage on Sunday but wait, dig a bit deeper and I think we come up with the one stat that might change everything.
Red Zone Defense.....
The Pats rank 9th in the league in Red Zone scoring percentage at 52.27%. The Falcons ranked dead last at 72.73%
Let that sink in for a bit. The Falcons are allowing a TD three quarters of the time that teams enter the red zone.
I have the most experienced QB in playoff history with the best coach ever and he gets to face a defense that gives up TDs at that rate in the redzone. This is a game that very well may come down to the last possession so I think its the only way you can bet this to take that kind of experience and feel comfortable with your investment. The Pats defense has a better chance to make a stop in this game than the Falcons defense does. In order for the Falcons to get to Brady I think they are going to have to blitz and if that is the case Brady vs the Blitz is not what you want if you are a defense.
I have the Pats winning here and scoring well past the 30.5 that the books set the total at.
