CDSs NFL Playoff Thread

Coverdatspred

Coverdatspred

Curious About George Costanza‘s Modeling Career
Gonna post all the plays here and update as I go since its working quite well in the CFB forum. Hope I can carry some of that hot streak here as well.

Locked in:

Saturday

Texans -3 -128
Bengals/Texans first H U21.5 -110
Bengals/Texans U43.5 -110
Packers TT O27 -115
Packers first H -4.5 -110
Packers -7 -125

Sunday

Ravens first H -4 -110
Ravens -6.5 -110
Redskins +3 -120
Seahawks/Redskins O46 -110

-----------------------
Divisional plays

Saturday

Ravens first H +6.5 -110
Ravens +10 -130
Packers TT O21.5 -115
Packers +3 -120

Sunday

Falcons -2.5 -115
Falcons first H -1 -115
Falcons/Seahawks O45-114
Texans +10 -130
Texans TT O 20 -115

________________________

Championship Sunday

49ers -3 -135
49ers -7 +150
49ers TT O26 -115
49ers/Falcons first H U24.5 -125
Ravens/Patriots U51.5 -110
 
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Bengals/Texans

This game is shaping up to be a very enjoyable game to watch if you like slugfests. The Bengals bring the number 8 scoring defense (20ppg) ranking as 7th against the pass and 12th against the run. The Texans have struggled down the stretch since having their manhood stolen by the Pats but still manage to field the number 9 scoring defense (20.7 ppg) ranking 16th vs the pass and 7th vs the run.

Cinci is undoubtedly the hotter of the two teams having won 7 of their last 8 games coming into this game. Houston on the other hand has lost 3 of their last 4 after looking like the AFCs most dominant team for much of the year.

This game has the feel of old school playoff football to me. Both teams will try and run the ball and both teams will try and stop the run. The Texans do not want to have to drop Schaub back too many times and have to deal with the strong Bengals pass rush. The Bengals do not want to let JJ Watt take over the game as he is very capable of doing so. This feels like a 20-17 type of a finish with most of the scoring coming in the second half.
 
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Vikings/Packers

The Vikings have won four straight tough games to get to this point. Vs Chi, @ Stl, @ Hou, Vs GB. Ponder has played very well during that stretch run to help guide this team to where they stand now. Peterson has played out of his mind during that stretch. There is no secret to what the Vikings want to do, line up and run and see if you can stop AD. Take a closer look at those locations for those four wins in a row. All dome stadiums. Night time at Lambeau field is a bit different. Should be in the low 20s tomorrow by kickoff.

This Packers team was 15-1 last year when they played their first playoff game. Many expected them to win the superbowl most of last year but instead they were sent home one and done from the playoffs. I can promise you that is what they have been thinking about most of the season this year and it has only intensified now that the first week of the playoffs are here. This team to me has a bit of the feel of the team that won the Superbowl a few years back. Battled injuries for most of the year and got healthy at the right time going into the playoffs and made a run. Nelson, Matthews, Jennings, Woodson are pretty big names to have to play extended periods of time without and all are expected to be back this weekend.

Think about this. When these two played in GB back in early December AD rushed for 210 yards and a TD and the Pack still won this game by 9 pts comfortably. The key to this game is Christian Ponder and he is pretty much coming off the best game he has ever played. Ive seen enough of Ponder to know this much....he is a serviceable QB in the NFL and heck he may even win a game here and there for you but to carry his team to back to back wins vs a flat out better opponent and this time have to do it on the opponents home field? I dont see it happening and in fact I will pay to see him try. Pack win this game by double digits IMO.
 
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Colts/Ravens

my first thought when I saw the lines for this was that the Colts can win this game. Then I looked into it a bit more and then Ray announced his retirement. The emotional impact of mr Lewis on this team can not be understated. I was about to give the colts the edge in emotion because of the whole chuck strong stuff but this ray info was the equalizer IMO

Coaching edge...ravens
QB edge....about even if not tilted in the ravens favor (present time, not future)
RB edge.....not even close. Ravens
Defensive edge.....ravens
Special teams edge.....ravens
Home field.....ravens
Experience....ravens times ten

i love Andrew Luck, he has an amazing future ahead of him. This will be a learning experience for him IMO. The Ravens take the ball away at home and rarely turn it over while the Colts give the ball away on the road and rarely take it away. Luck will have the future and Ray and the Ravens will have the present in this matchup.
 
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Seahawks/Redskins

Two rookies face off in what I think will be the best game of the weekend. Seattle has been crushing their opponents over the past few weeks and the skins have been on fire for weeks seemingly winning every matchup. A few things stand out right away. Seattle has to travel a long way for this game and even though they have played OK on the road lately this is historically a terrible road team. So you have a rookie QB traveling several time zones for his first playoff game with a bad road team.

When you think Seattle you think a team that can run the ball great and play great defense. Both are true but looking a bit deeper there is some interesting info there. Seattle has the 3rd ranked rushing attack at 160 a game, Lynch has nearly 1600 yards on the ground and they are the 10th ranked rushing defense. Washington has the leagues best rushing attack, Morris has over 1600 yards rushing and the skins have the 3rd ranked rushing defense. So if you are keeping score the skins run the ball better and stop the run better than the Seahawks. How bout passing? The skins have a better passing attack as well.

Overall the Seahawks have a better defense and its not even close but overall the skins have a better offense And its not even close. This game is going to come down to the two rookie QBs IMO. I'm backing the home team rather than the team who has all five of its losses on the road this year. It's really as simple as that as far as I'm concerned.

my prediction? This will be a higher scoring game than most think. The skins will be able to run and pass on the Seahawks and the Seahawks should be able to do their thing as well. Skins win 28-24
 
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Added

Texans -3 -128

Seeing wayyyyyy too much cinci love personally. The line has dropped to where I feel ok with buying the hook. Probably will not come into play too much. If Houston plays their game they win by a TD or more. If Cinci plays their game Houston still has a shot at winning If that makes any sense.
 
Rough ass card, still can't figure it out. I lean ravens as well. Such an unpredictable team though. Gl cds.
 
HUNT said:
Rough ass card, still can't figure it out. I lean ravens as well. Such an unpredictable team though. Gl cds.
Click to expand...

Thanks HUNT, I agree its a risky bet but I can't pass on ten Pts in this situation. I'm working on a write up with my thoughts that should be up today sometime.
 
Nice job last weekend CDS. I personally think those two high lines are set that way for a reason, but I'm laying off the NE game. May get involved with the Donks
 
scdoggy said:
Nice job last weekend CDS. I personally think those two high lines are set that way for a reason, but I'm laying off the NE game. May get involved with the Donks
Click to expand...

Thanks doggy, feel like it could have been better if not for the issue with the knee and the handling of the situation by Shanny. Oh well on to this week.
 
Ravens/Broncos

Im not going to sit here and tell you that Denver isnt the better team because thats simply not the case. They are and they are at home and thats why they are heavily favored. This line is too high IMO and thats why Im on the Ravens. Lets look at a few things here.....

In Peyton Mannings career he really has not sparkled in the post season like he has in the regular season. In fact if not for the one superbowl win he has he might be remembered much like Dan Marino, tons of stats but couldnt win the big game. Did you know that 7 times in Peyton Mannings career his teams have been one and done in the playoffs, thats right a first round exit 7 times out of 11 postseasons. His team was a favorite in 6 of those games. In 3 of those games his team had a bye in the first week and were sent packing in the divisional game. In fact in his career he is 1-3 straight up in his first playoff game when his team has had the bye. All that being said those were the Colts and these are the Broncos and I realize its a different team. I would contest though that maybe the team doesnt matter and maybe Peytons brand of offense simply doesnt translate to playoff football and even more so when he has a week off to cool off a bit.

The Broncos have won 11 straight and have been demolishing teams heading up to the playoffs. Does the bye week help hot teams or hurt them? I cant find any reasoning that this bye week is going to help and to me it only hurts a team when things are rolling like they have been for the Broncos. I read a year ago somewhere and I cant remember where for the life of me about teams that enter the playoffs on win streaks and get the bye. The record vs the spread in those games is atrocious. Id have to do some serious digging through my stuff to quote the exact number since I believe I wrote it down somewhere but rather than dig I will just say its bad.

The Broncos went into Baltimore on December 16th and demolished the Ravens 34-17 in a game that was actually 31-3 at the start of the 4th quarter. The Ravens are expected to lose this weekend and the Broncos are expected to win this weekend. In fact, the Broncos are expected to be a superbowl contender while the Ravens were "lucky" to make it past Indy last week who moved the ball up and down the field against them.

Baltimore is old and slow on defense and is no longer the same defense they used to be while on the other side of the ball the Broncos are rock solid on defense. Wait, really? Well the Broncos are number two in the NFL in total yards given up at only 290 a game. The Ravens are 17th at 350 a game. So there is a gap of 15 teams between the two as far as yards go but really its only 60 yards. On defense the Broncos give up a stout 18 pts per game. The Ravens give up a whole FG more per game at 21 points per game. Not too far of a gap huh? Consider this, the Broncos gave up 32 TDs this year while the Ravens gave up 33 TDs. These two are not that far from each other as far as defense goes. AND......for the first time pretty much all season Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Hiloti Ngata and T Suggs are all together on the field at the same time.

The Ravens will be playing as huge underdogs who are supposed to lose, with one of the best running backs in the league who is coming off a bad game where he fumbled twice, and a quarterback who has as many if not more road playoff wins as anyone else in the history of the NFL. They will be playing loose with no pressure vs a team who has all the pressure in the world on them. If Denver fails to win here they will have to face the questions of why Tebow got more wins last year in the playoffs than Manning. Ravens may not win this game but I sure do like their chances of keeping this within 10 pts.

Some notes here.....you will probably be able to hedge out of this bet at halftime if you dont like what you see. Denver has scored 299 second half points this season which equates to 18.69 second half points per game. They scored 14 or more in all but 3 of their games in the second half this year and in those they scored 13, 13 and 10. They put up second half points in a big way basically. I will be looking at the second half total as well as the second half Broncos TT O with a keen eye during this game.

GL if your playing it.
 
Packers/49ers

I have been a fan of the 49ers switch of Smith for Kap and I think in the end it pays off for them but this is not the end IMO. The move will pay off for them next year not this year. This is the learning experience for Kap. He may go out and prove me wrong but he isnt ready quite yet for the big game. Guys just dont step in and take their teams to the superbowl without learning the pain of losing first, save for a few outliers in the past.

I wrote it in my write up for last weeks game but this season feels and looks a whole hell of a lot similar to the year where the Packers barely made it to the playoffs but went on a hot run straight through to hoisting the Lombardi trophy. They battled injuries all season long this year on both sides of the ball. Their defense at times this season looked very much like swiss cheese but down the stretch they have really tightened up and are now healthy with all the key players for the first time in a long while. If you remember the Pack also miraculously found a running game in that stretch run as well when James Starks all of a sudden started running the ball for the Pack who simply could not run all year long. Sound familiar? The Packers offense this year ranks 20th in the NFL with 106 yards rushing a game. Over the last several weeks if you have watched the Packers have dedicated to the run and have actually been fairly good at it. Harris and Grant along with Kuhn around the goal line have been a pretty good backfield. No they will never run the ball like the 49ers but they dont have to with Rodgers. They only need the threat of running it.

Lets look at some things that upon first glance might stand out. The Pack have a terrible defense and the 49ers have a great defense and defense wins championships. Wait a second, look a bit closer. Over the last ten games of the season the 49ers have given up an average of 17.9 points per game. Stout for sure. The Packers terrible defense has given up over the last 10 games of the season 19.1 points per game. Terrible? Doesnt look all that much different from the 49ers to me actually. 1.2 points per game difference.

What this essentially comes down to is this. I get to fade a QB making his first ever playoff start AND I get arguably one of the best QBs ever to play the game as a dog.

The key to this game is going to be the health of Justin Smith IMO. If Justin Smith can play through the torn triceps injury effectively it opens up Aldon Smith for wreaking havoc. Obviously if they dont pressure Aaron Rodgers he will pick them apart. He simply has too many weapons and they are all healthy in this game. If Justin Smith is not effective Aldon Smith loses quite a bit of effectiveness. This 49ers defense can be passed on. In week 16 Russell Wilson tossed 4 TD passes on them. In week 14 Tom Brady threw for over 400 yards on them in a crazy second half comeback that nearly cost the 49ers the game after having a huge lead. Sam Bradford threw for nearly 500 yards on them in two games, one a tie and one a 49er loss, as well as a couple TD passes.....Sam Bradford! Drew Brees threw for 3 TD passes against them. Christian Ponder threw for 2 TD passes against them. In fact, Aaron Rodgers went for over 300 yards and 2 TD passes in the loss vs the 49ers earlier this season. You get my point, this defense isnt the same shut down defense we saw last year for the 49ers, there will be plenty of chances to score for the Packers.

The Pack have been held under 21.5 points three times this season this season. Once a 21-13 win @ Chicago. Once a 10-38 beatdown @ NYG. And the last one a 12-14 "loss" @ Seattle where the scab refs gifted the Seahawks the win. The 49ers will no doubt try and control this game to limit the amt of possessions that Aaron Rodgers and his offense will have. Essentially they will have to be damn good with the limited possession they have. I watched every snap of the Pack game last week and I honestly feel they could have dropped 50 on the Vikings. They eased up in a big way and relaxed during the second half. I lean hard toward a straight up Packers win here and I may be on it in some way before kick off but I really like the Packers to score here.
 
Three of the games you mentioned were on the road and Seatlle was a b2b road and (at home)Rams was a full extra 15 minutes. Niners d is a whole different beast at home. Hope Niners win 28-24, so we both cash. Good luck with rest!
 
Thanks HUNT, Sharky and Utes. GL to you guys today and tomorrow.

geopackiv said:
Three of the games you mentioned were on the road and Seatlle was a b2b road and (at home)Rams was a full extra 15 minutes. Niners d is a whole different beast at home. Hope Niners win 28-24, so we both cash. Good luck with rest!
Click to expand...

geo, the niners have played four home games since the bye week in October. They have faced Brian Hoyer, Ryan Tannehill, Jason Campbell and Sam Bradford. Not exactly murderers row. Hoyer, Tannehill and Campbell each managed to get a TD pass in on the niners defense. Bradford dissected them, 26 completions for 275 yards and 2 TDs. My point is that yes they stop the run with the best of them but they can be thrown on. They can't cover everyone and if Bradford can do what he did against them, Rodgers will have a field day if given time. I really think the matchup they can exploit is Cobb vs Whoever they put on him in the slot. I'm leaning toward a play on the Packers as well here so health bro.
 
Overall record

10-6-1 +2.9 units

Got greedy last night with the packers second half play. They just got worn the fuck out, Kaepernick is simply a beast.

Added

Falcons -2.5 -115
Falcons/Seahawks O45 -114

didnt get to write today's games up so here are my quick thoughts. The situation favors the falcons here in a big big way. They have had to sit home for the past two weeks and hear all about how they are paper tigers and how Seattle is going to come into their house and beat them up. Last I checked the Falcons are a pretty damn good home team. The Seahawks have played several very very physical games in a row and are logging some serious travel and are playing a ten o clock west coast time game. Matchup wise I don't think browner can matchup with either roddy or Julio today and whoever is on his side is going to beat him today. Essentially IMO the Falcons are going to get over the hump today, the Seahawks are on the rise but today is Atlantas day.
 
Overall Record
13-8-1 +3.45 units

Added
49ers -3 -135
49ers -7 +150
49ers TT O26 -115

49ers/Falcons

Is this line a bit of a reaction to last week? Hell yes it is. I was hoping to get this thing near or at a pick and make it one of the largest bets Ive made in years but oh well. There are several factors that make me like the 49ers here. I like that they lost last year in the Championship game in a game that they should have won. I like that they have something to prove (win at one of the largest HFA in the NFL). I like that they are playing a finesse team who like to air it out rather than the Seahawks who are essentially a clone of themselves. I like that they get the Falcons a week after their largest win in years and years dating back to the Pre-Vick era. I really can go on and on about my reasons but lets break down a few of those.....

Since Harbaugh took over prior to last season the 49ers have lost 8 games. in 2011 they lost to Dallas, Baltimore, Arizona and NY Giants. In 2012 they lost to Minnesota, NY Giants, St Louis and Seattle. When you look at those teams what jumps out at you? They are all smashmouth teams that bang you up on defense and are able to pound the ball on offense. Every one of them with the exception of Dallas fits that mold to a T. Would you include the Falcons on a list of teams that plays smashmouth defense and pounds the rock? A few years ago absolutely. Now, not so much. I know that the Falcons just ran the ball up and down the field on the Seahawks last week but I can discount that for a few reasons. They caught the Seahawks in an absolutely terrible situation after several rough games in a row and two weeks in a row across the country. Secondly, the Seahawks defense really was not as good against the run as their numbers suggested. The last 8 or so games of the season they gave up rush yardage in chunks. Now a week after the ridiculously emotional last second win they get to face the 49ers who are 4th vs the rush, 4th vs the pass, 2nd in pts allowed. The 49ers who are 4th in the league in rushing yards and averaging 28.6 pts per game since Kaep took the reigns (learning curve and all). Simply put the 49ers are a team built to win in the playoffs and are built to win on the road. Defense travels.

What QB in the league reminds you most of Kaep at this point in time? Probably a more accurate version of Cam Newton IMO. Cam played the Falcons twice this year. Matchup #1 in Atl Cam had 86 yards rushing and a TD and went 15/24 for 215 and two TDs through the air. He had the Falcons beat dead to rights till he fumbled the ball trying to secure a first down that would have ended the game. After the punt Matty Ice tossed a 50 yarder from his own end zone and then ended up putting his team in FG range for the game winning FG. Matchup #2 in Carolina Cam had 116 yards rushing and 1 TD while throwing 23/35 for 287 and two TDs. Carolina beat the Falcons 30-20 in this game. The QB that most resembles the one they will face on Sunday torched the Falcons defense for 704 total yards and 6 TDs in two games.

I fully expect the 49ers to shut down the Falcons run game in this game and that leaves Matty Ice vs a defense who has faced Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers twice this season. They will be ready for just about anything Matty can throw at them IMO. the biggest mismatch in this game will be the 49ers #4 ranked rush offense vs the Falcons #21 ranked rush defense. The 9ers rush for 155 a game and the Falcons give up 123 a game on the ground. This may be a close fought game in the first half but I just see the 49ers wearing them down much the same way they did to the Packers last week.

GL if your playing it as usual.
 
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