CCons Week 4 Pick plus write up BYU at Mich

[Ccon the Contrarian]

Thanks for the nice welcome last week. It helps when my plays win though haha. Hers one im on today. I'll be back to post a few more of my later games as well. GL
CCons NCAAF Play 9.26.15

BYU +7 at Michigan


BYU has looked impressive so far this season despite losing their first game of the season to UCLA last week, a game they were in control of from the beginning. While Michigan has bounced back vs sub-par competition in their last two games after losing to Utah in the opener. BYU, usually stout against the run was gashed by UCLA for 296 yards on the ground, which will be a key to the outcome of this one as the Wolverines lone offensive spark has come on the ground. Despite having a former Quarterback as a head coach Jake Rudock has struggled this season throwing 5 interceptions. That could be another area of concern for Michigan as BYU has forced 7 turnovers on the young season. Some key points that make this game interesting to is the fact the BYU had to play a late night game vs UCLA last week on the west coast, with a start time of 7:30pst. Now they will travel east and kickoff at 9:00am pst. That's a big swing and we'll if the Cougars are sleep walking to start this game. In addition, the Cougars defense was able to force (or receive- due to poor reads) key turnovers vs UCLA despite getting dominated for most of the game. If Michigan is able to keep their drives alive without turning the ball over in the redzone, they could capitalize on the BYU's defensive whoa's.


Vegas Impact: This will be the most bet game of the early slotted games. The line opened at Michigan -5 to the surprise of many. Then surged past -6 and now sits at -6.5 and -7 at some shops. Lets note that 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers, meaning it doesn't take much money to move the line to -6 but to 6.5 and especially 7 is big. Its unclear which shops took this Michigan action but most are still seeing BYU money come in at a 2:1 clip especially shops that moved it to 7. Some sharp shops don't have a huge liability on this game but most square ones do and their need is Michigan. Hate to be on this play with the wrong number but I see this as a value trap for BYU backers.


Michigan -7 is my play.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL

Actually opened 6 then went to 4 real quick fwiw.

Ya want to take 7, horrible spot but can UM win/cover this? Who knows.

 

[Inspekdah]

UCLA just kept throwing terrible INT's early that kept the game far closer than it should have been. Some right in the end zone swing 10-14 points. The 296 yards is big.

And now, the fact that Michigan, was competitive against Utah looks more impressive as Utah is pretty, nasty.

Thought Michigan's dominance in the last 2 games goes under the radar because of how bad the competition was... but the defense looks really, really, good. A win here and they could make a push to be ranked.

 

[Fondybadger]

Health on the early game.

 

[Ccon the Contrarian]

GL

Actually opened 6 then went to 4 real quick fwiw.

Ya want to take 7, horrible spot but can UM win/cover this? Who knows.

Depends on the book.. Most offshores opened at 5 or 5.5 then did dip briefly but didn't last a say at 4.5... Don't like the line of -7 but like I mentioned this looks like a value trap for BYU

 

[Ccon the Contrarian]

UCLA just kept throwing terrible INT's early that kept the game far closer than it should have been. Some right in the end zone swing 10-14 points. The 296 yards is big.

And now, the fact that Michigan, was competitive against Utah looks more impressive as Utah is pretty, nasty.

Thought Michigan's dominance in the last 2 games goes under the radar because of how bad the competition was... but the defense looks really, really, good. A win here and they could make a push to be ranked.

Exactly... UCLA left 14-21 points on the board in that game, overlooked by the boxscore and 1 point loss.

 

[Play2win]

BOL today

 

[Ccon the Contrarian]

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[TD="class: sites-layout-tile sites-tile-name-content-1"]UCLA -2 at Arizona


UCLA is coming off of a 1 point win/escape over BYU. The defense was shredded by a BYU offense that is not know to put up a bunch of points. On offense they were able to run the ball well, but struggled mightily throwing the ball. Meanwhile Arizona is 3-0 after beating UTSA, Nevada, N. Arizona. This will be their first real text and they get star LB Scobby Wright back for this game, while UCLA will be without their top linebacker in Miles Jack. Some key points are UCLA will get back top DB Ishmael Adams who was suspended for the first 3 games of the season. This will be a big game for both teams, and really the first true text for both.


Vegas Impact:


This is Vegas' biggest liability of the day. The game opened UCLA -4 and has been bet down to -2 with reports of both sharp and public action coming in on the Wildcats. The line moved through the key number of 3 and has settled on 2. In addition the has been disproportionate money coming in on Arizona on the money line at a 3:1 rate average in books I've received data on. At plus 130 that is big for the books. This also looks to be a top 5 bet game for the day making the disparity even more of a liability. I'll take the Vegas side plus the value, getting a team Vegas deemed 3.5 favorites.


UCLA -1.5 is my play.

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