CCon the Contrarian Ncaaf 10.3.15

Ccon the Contrarian

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Mississippi -6.5 at Florida


In the battle of two unbeaten teams, Ole Miss looks to justify number three ranking in the country vs a top 25 team in the Gators. The Rebels travel to Gainesville after a lackluster win vs Vanderbilt at home, but their statement game of the season was in week 3 when they went into Alabama and stuck it to the Crimson Tide. They look to ride their powerful air attack to another convincing win. On the other side Florida is coming off a big come from behind victory vs Tennessee in which they came back from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to win. That win, combined with a 4-0 start has the Gators ranked for the first time since 2012. Some side notes on this game is that Ole Miss offense is passed on the passing attack, while Florida depends on its defensive secondary as its strong point. The Gators also get back cornerback Jalen Tabor from suspension for this game. Also worth noting, besides its victory over Bama, the Rebels other victory's came against UT Martin, Fresno State, and Vanderbilt.


Vegas Impact:


This looks to be in the top 5 most best games of the day, drawing lopsided action on the Rebels as less then a touchdown favorites at -6.5. The perception is that Ole Miss is a championship contender while the Gators are lucky to be 4-0. Over 94% of parlays and teaser cards bet on this game are on the Rebels. The line opened at 6 and moved to 7 and 7.5 mid week but was bought back down by sharps to 6.5. This looks to be a big sportsbook liability and I'm taking the home dog in this one.


Gators +6.5 is my play

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CCons 10/3/15 NCAAF Plays posted a minute ago<noscript xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">Oct 3, 2015, 4:20 PM</noscript> by C Con [TABLE="class: sites-layout-name-one-column sites-layout-hbox"]
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Arizona St +13 at UCLA


This is a game between two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions. UCLA is 4-0 and coming off a blowout win vs Arizona. Meanwhile the Sun Devils were blown out by USC at home last week. So this game sets up for an easy UCLA victory tonight, one would think. UCLA dominated Arizona but did so verse a backup quarterback after Arizona's starter Soloman was injured in the first quarter. That made Arizona one dimensional having to rum=n the ball the rest of the game. On the flip side Arizona State couldn't contain USC's fast receivers and were burned up and down the field. They also spotted USC 14 points on turnovers. This game will feature a desperate ASU team that came into the season ranked in the top 25 and has now lost 2 out of 4. While UCLA has been hit with the injury bug but able to outlast their opponents with the run game. I expect the absence of miles jack to expose UCLA this week in their rushing defense. While ASU should bring out all their stops to get the win in this one (at least cover).


Vegas Impact:


The line opened at UCLA minus two touchdowns and has moved down to 13 and 12.5 at some sharp books despite the majority of bets being on UCLA at a 3:1 clip. The public might be over reacting to what they saw last week out of both teams while sharps are taking the value in ASU who pre season was not favored more then a touchdown in this game. Not a huge liability for the books because of the sharp money but definitely a need for ASU cover.


Arizona State +13 is my play

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Always appreciate your insight. What were you seeing on the Oregon / Colorado game? Seems like the ducks were a big public bet, what didn't line up for you to take the Buffaloes?
 
Always appreciate your insight. What were you seeing on the Oregon / Colorado game? Seems like the ducks were a big public bet, what didn't line up for you to take the Buffaloes?
No worries capattack ... I was leaning Colorado but bailed on the play just didn't like the play with the value gone at 6.5 ... So I couldn't pull the trigger.
 
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