CharlieBX
Friend of CTG
Will post my final play/line when I submit it, but just wanted to get my writeup posted. Will have another game or two added soon.
Northwestern -4 @ Miami (OH)
I’ve been studying this game for a while, and I honestly really like Northwestern here. They return a bunch of starters from a squad that went 7-5 last year and went to a bowl game. Everyone is aware of the unfortunate passing of head coach Randy Walker, who built this program into what it is today. Let’s take a look at the matchups on offense and defense.
Last year, Northwestern was faced with a big task of replacing 3 starters and then to make matters more difficult, starting C Trevor Rees (one of the top centers in the Big 10) was lost to injury. What happened? Well, the inexperienced line opened holes to average 5.0 yards per carry, and allowed only 11 sacks. This year they only lose starting RT Zach Strief and their backup LT, everyone else is back, including a healthy Rees. This offensive line could among the best in the Big 10, which is huge for the new QB Mike Kafka. I haven’t heard many reviews on Kafka, and was actually a little surprised that he was named the starter, I originally pictured CJ Bacher taking over for Basanez one day. Because of the QB’s inexperience, and the fact the OL returns intact, I love the fact the stud youngster RB Tyrell Sutton is back. As a freshman, he ran for 1515 yards on 250 carries and scored 16 TDs. Also gotta like the fact he can catch the ball, 44 catches for 396 yards. Honestly, I expect to see a healthy dose of Sutton early, as the receiving core doesn’t return much after last year’s leading receiver Shaun Herbert (79 catches for 862 yards and TDs).
The Miami (OH) Redhawks return less than a handful of starters on defense this year. Their LB core, dubbed as one of the best in the MAC last season led by Terna Nande, is being completely redone this year. Their 3 starters and their main two backups in the rotation are all gone. Now, how can you protect a inexperience LB group? Have a good defensive line that can be disruptive and aggressive. I don’t see that happening with this defensive line. They lose 2 of their top 3 DTs along with MAC 1at teamer DE Marcus Johnson. The defense last year gave up 4.1 yards per carry against the run, which was their worst within the past 3 years (2004-3.3 yards per carry, 2003-3.4 yards per carry) and now they are facing an experienced overachieving offensive line in Northwestern. The Miami secondary is the strength of the defense, and they may need to stack the box quite a bit to support the interior of the D. If this happens I would expect to see Northwestern bring out a bit of play action, and this group can get burned by it at times. Senior safety Joey Card was a MAC 2nd teamer last year and had 3 INTs but he takes risks at times which lead to mistakes.
On offense, Miami (OH) again does not return much. Stud QB Josh Betts is gone, but his weapons RB Brandon Murphy and WR/PR Ryne Robinson are back. Mike Kokal will lead the offense, but he will do it behind an offensive line that is starting two sophomores and must replace 3 starters from last year that were on all-conference teams (1st and 2nd). Last year, Miami had 2 1000 yard receivers, making it difficult for opposing secondaries to double team any particular WR. Martin Nance, Robinson’s partner in crime has moved on, so unless somebody steps up huge I think Robinson could see his numbers go down a bit.
The Northwestern defense, just like Miami (OH) in my opinion will find its strength in its secondary. They are led by Marquice Cole, who had 5 INTs last year. This group snagged quite a few INTs last year, but must replace their 2 starting safeties. Luckily, SS Bryan Heinz is back from injury, and he was actually the starter before getting hurt. Their defensive line lost star Loren Howard, and saw their yards allowed per run jump from 3.6 to 5.2. They return quite a few along the line, and although are not entirely talented are very experienced as a result of last year. Their LB core will start 3 seniors and returns 5 of their top 6, unfortunately the lone loss is super-stud Tim McGarigle, who broke several records in his tenure.
You may be asking why am I not worried about the Northwestern defense getting destroyed? Well, I’ve already gone over the inexperience of the Miami (OH) offense, not to mention in Randy Walker’s tenure the Northwestern defense has been known to give up points so it’s not like their mindset is “Oh man, we’ve had this steel curtain defense for the past few years and now what are we going to do?”.
As long as Northwestern comes out and is able to establish their running game early, they should get it done. I keep thinking back to last year when Miami (OH) play Northern Illinois. NIU established their running game, keep in mind against a better LB group than what the Redhawks have now, and never allowed Josh Betts and company to get comfortable on offense (And that was the Redhawk offense that still had Betts, Nance, Murphy, Robinson, and a better offensive line).
I think Northwestern comes out and wins this game in honor of their fallen coach. Let’s say 34-24... Go 'Cats!!!
:cheers:
Northwestern -4 @ Miami (OH)
I’ve been studying this game for a while, and I honestly really like Northwestern here. They return a bunch of starters from a squad that went 7-5 last year and went to a bowl game. Everyone is aware of the unfortunate passing of head coach Randy Walker, who built this program into what it is today. Let’s take a look at the matchups on offense and defense.
Last year, Northwestern was faced with a big task of replacing 3 starters and then to make matters more difficult, starting C Trevor Rees (one of the top centers in the Big 10) was lost to injury. What happened? Well, the inexperienced line opened holes to average 5.0 yards per carry, and allowed only 11 sacks. This year they only lose starting RT Zach Strief and their backup LT, everyone else is back, including a healthy Rees. This offensive line could among the best in the Big 10, which is huge for the new QB Mike Kafka. I haven’t heard many reviews on Kafka, and was actually a little surprised that he was named the starter, I originally pictured CJ Bacher taking over for Basanez one day. Because of the QB’s inexperience, and the fact the OL returns intact, I love the fact the stud youngster RB Tyrell Sutton is back. As a freshman, he ran for 1515 yards on 250 carries and scored 16 TDs. Also gotta like the fact he can catch the ball, 44 catches for 396 yards. Honestly, I expect to see a healthy dose of Sutton early, as the receiving core doesn’t return much after last year’s leading receiver Shaun Herbert (79 catches for 862 yards and TDs).
The Miami (OH) Redhawks return less than a handful of starters on defense this year. Their LB core, dubbed as one of the best in the MAC last season led by Terna Nande, is being completely redone this year. Their 3 starters and their main two backups in the rotation are all gone. Now, how can you protect a inexperience LB group? Have a good defensive line that can be disruptive and aggressive. I don’t see that happening with this defensive line. They lose 2 of their top 3 DTs along with MAC 1at teamer DE Marcus Johnson. The defense last year gave up 4.1 yards per carry against the run, which was their worst within the past 3 years (2004-3.3 yards per carry, 2003-3.4 yards per carry) and now they are facing an experienced overachieving offensive line in Northwestern. The Miami secondary is the strength of the defense, and they may need to stack the box quite a bit to support the interior of the D. If this happens I would expect to see Northwestern bring out a bit of play action, and this group can get burned by it at times. Senior safety Joey Card was a MAC 2nd teamer last year and had 3 INTs but he takes risks at times which lead to mistakes.
On offense, Miami (OH) again does not return much. Stud QB Josh Betts is gone, but his weapons RB Brandon Murphy and WR/PR Ryne Robinson are back. Mike Kokal will lead the offense, but he will do it behind an offensive line that is starting two sophomores and must replace 3 starters from last year that were on all-conference teams (1st and 2nd). Last year, Miami had 2 1000 yard receivers, making it difficult for opposing secondaries to double team any particular WR. Martin Nance, Robinson’s partner in crime has moved on, so unless somebody steps up huge I think Robinson could see his numbers go down a bit.
The Northwestern defense, just like Miami (OH) in my opinion will find its strength in its secondary. They are led by Marquice Cole, who had 5 INTs last year. This group snagged quite a few INTs last year, but must replace their 2 starting safeties. Luckily, SS Bryan Heinz is back from injury, and he was actually the starter before getting hurt. Their defensive line lost star Loren Howard, and saw their yards allowed per run jump from 3.6 to 5.2. They return quite a few along the line, and although are not entirely talented are very experienced as a result of last year. Their LB core will start 3 seniors and returns 5 of their top 6, unfortunately the lone loss is super-stud Tim McGarigle, who broke several records in his tenure.
You may be asking why am I not worried about the Northwestern defense getting destroyed? Well, I’ve already gone over the inexperience of the Miami (OH) offense, not to mention in Randy Walker’s tenure the Northwestern defense has been known to give up points so it’s not like their mindset is “Oh man, we’ve had this steel curtain defense for the past few years and now what are we going to do?”.
As long as Northwestern comes out and is able to establish their running game early, they should get it done. I keep thinking back to last year when Miami (OH) play Northern Illinois. NIU established their running game, keep in mind against a better LB group than what the Redhawks have now, and never allowed Josh Betts and company to get comfortable on offense (And that was the Redhawk offense that still had Betts, Nance, Murphy, Robinson, and a better offensive line).
I think Northwestern comes out and wins this game in honor of their fallen coach. Let’s say 34-24... Go 'Cats!!!
:cheers:
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