B
Billivy
Guest
bet it b/c i said to...
i'm on it 550 to win 500
i'm on it 550 to win 500
frankiegotti
Power Boat Enthusiast
Ok, i kind of like dallas here. Although the way cleveland was playing last night i was kind of skeptical that last night's game might be a look ahead for them. I would like them to win outright but i don't know if thats going to happen.
Things in the cavs favor is that they are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. LBJ is starting to get points from the bench so he dosen't have to score outrageous amounts of points every night. Also, ever since dallas lost at home to phoenix they seem to be struggling a little bit.
I don't know what it is, i still like dallas, maybe it is my square intuition talking. I will probally be on this game for a small amount because i can watch it lol.
BOL billy
Things in the cavs favor is that they are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. LBJ is starting to get points from the bench so he dosen't have to score outrageous amounts of points every night. Also, ever since dallas lost at home to phoenix they seem to be struggling a little bit.
I don't know what it is, i still like dallas, maybe it is my square intuition talking. I will probally be on this game for a small amount because i can watch it lol.
BOL billy
:consoling1:
B
Billivy
Guest
To everybody betting on Dallas tonight,
this is me plea to get you to hedge and pay out the juice to your respective books...An OT loss is the worst case scenario for anybody scouting out the Dallas play in advance. Cleveland hasn't lost two in a row in a month. They are playin their best ball of the season and Lebron has been quoted numerous times recently expressing his desire to grab that number one spot from Detroit to avoid a potential second round matchup with the Heat. As of right now, Dallas would have to lose a superstar or two to be caught by Phoenix...the Cavs are 2.5 games behind Detroit however and cannot afford to drop two consecutive right now...expecially with all the good work they've put in the the past three weeks. The Cavs have been a solid home team since day 1 of this season and are 3-0 this season when catching 3-3.5 points @ home. (current spread is 3-3.5) The home team has won 8/10 matchups st8 between these two teams in their past ten and the Cavs are covering 75% of their home games ATS as well. There's a fine line between competitiveness and foolishness IMO. Dallas has a few key role players still sittin on the bench right now and if this turns into a real tussle late in the game, I think Avery will yield some of his edge to not burn out his starters on the second game of another grueling back to back. For some silly reason, Dallas used their starting 5 an average of 38 minutes against New York last night IN A BLOW OUT! That tells me that they were more concerned with grabbing an easy win and 1/2 on this b2b than gearing up for the nationally televised game tonight against the Cavs. On the other side of that coin (lebron doesn't count, his 46 minutes is almost his god damn average and the boy could play 48 minutes every night and run a marathon in between) the Cavs only had one other starter hit the 40 minute mark in an OT contest. Obviously the Cavs got caught up looking ahead to tonight's matchup which has huge motivational implications as to their regular season push for #1 which outweighs the standings implications. Bottom line, this is now the biggest game of the season for Cleveland, Dallas has had several games which they would have considered more important already and have to start thinking about their health b/c the western conference is as tough as it has ever been and they will need everything they can muster to make it out and to the finals. Cleveland has a motivational edge IMO, they have an obvious situational edge IMO, and they have a trends (recent matchups for home team) edge IMO...not to mention the best player on the planet on the top of his game. 3 points should be enough for the home team to make me some money tonight
this is me plea to get you to hedge and pay out the juice to your respective books...An OT loss is the worst case scenario for anybody scouting out the Dallas play in advance. Cleveland hasn't lost two in a row in a month. They are playin their best ball of the season and Lebron has been quoted numerous times recently expressing his desire to grab that number one spot from Detroit to avoid a potential second round matchup with the Heat. As of right now, Dallas would have to lose a superstar or two to be caught by Phoenix...the Cavs are 2.5 games behind Detroit however and cannot afford to drop two consecutive right now...expecially with all the good work they've put in the the past three weeks. The Cavs have been a solid home team since day 1 of this season and are 3-0 this season when catching 3-3.5 points @ home. (current spread is 3-3.5) The home team has won 8/10 matchups st8 between these two teams in their past ten and the Cavs are covering 75% of their home games ATS as well. There's a fine line between competitiveness and foolishness IMO. Dallas has a few key role players still sittin on the bench right now and if this turns into a real tussle late in the game, I think Avery will yield some of his edge to not burn out his starters on the second game of another grueling back to back. For some silly reason, Dallas used their starting 5 an average of 38 minutes against New York last night IN A BLOW OUT! That tells me that they were more concerned with grabbing an easy win and 1/2 on this b2b than gearing up for the nationally televised game tonight against the Cavs. On the other side of that coin (lebron doesn't count, his 46 minutes is almost his god damn average and the boy could play 48 minutes every night and run a marathon in between) the Cavs only had one other starter hit the 40 minute mark in an OT contest. Obviously the Cavs got caught up looking ahead to tonight's matchup which has huge motivational implications as to their regular season push for #1 which outweighs the standings implications. Bottom line, this is now the biggest game of the season for Cleveland, Dallas has had several games which they would have considered more important already and have to start thinking about their health b/c the western conference is as tough as it has ever been and they will need everything they can muster to make it out and to the finals. Cleveland has a motivational edge IMO, they have an obvious situational edge IMO, and they have a trends (recent matchups for home team) edge IMO...not to mention the best player on the planet on the top of his game. 3 points should be enough for the home team to make me some money tonight
ATLHawksBandwagon
Two-Shot Foul
Nice writeup billivy, I'm on the other side though. I think if you're betting the Cavs it has to be purely about their motivation as you were saying, you can't really compare their records. When you say the Cavs haven't lost two straight in a month, a Mavs backers can say they've only lost two in a row twice all year. When you talk about their home record, the Mavs actually have a better road record than the Cavs do at home. As for the last 10 between the two, its true the home team has won 8/10 but its also true that the Mavs have won 8/10 (I don't put any stock in that trend however).. I agree with you that the Cavs are more motivated, but I don't think Avery Johnson will have the Mavs up for this as well. I think the Cavs edge in motivation will be overcome by the Mavs skill/depth, but that's where we differ I assume. GL tonight
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Good post overall, if only you split it into paragraphs it would be even better. I won't hedge my bet, and here's why. Cavs might have the motivational edge, but I'm not betting on motivation in NBA or any of the US based sports for that matter, for the simple reason: it doesn't work.
It can cash in tonight, but I'm sure it won't cash in because "Cleveland were motivated more". We've seen dozens of cases where a team that has "nothing to play for" beats a team which needs the win URGENTLY.
You might have an edge with Dallas not being up for the game mentally since they logged in heavy last night, but I still think they get it done tonight.
Situationally, I don't think Cavs have an "obvious situational edge". They lost to Charlotte last night (here you go, we didn't even need to go that far when teams with nothing to play for against teams with everything to play for are concerned), and lost in a frustrating manner. Do they try to show up big tonight and beat the hottest team in the league? Sure. Do they do it? I don't think so.
I see another letdown moment for the Cavs, they've been winning and covering everything in the past weeks, and I think they lose to a team that has been dosing their game, very rarely having to show up big, or even being challenged to do so.
I don't believe either of these two teams see any special rivalry here, but both will of course want to win. You might be a follower of the theory of pounding the home dog in this situation (and have all the reason and right to do so), but I'm taking the other side, one of us will hit. :shake:
GL.
It can cash in tonight, but I'm sure it won't cash in because "Cleveland were motivated more". We've seen dozens of cases where a team that has "nothing to play for" beats a team which needs the win URGENTLY.
You might have an edge with Dallas not being up for the game mentally since they logged in heavy last night, but I still think they get it done tonight.
Situationally, I don't think Cavs have an "obvious situational edge". They lost to Charlotte last night (here you go, we didn't even need to go that far when teams with nothing to play for against teams with everything to play for are concerned), and lost in a frustrating manner. Do they try to show up big tonight and beat the hottest team in the league? Sure. Do they do it? I don't think so.
I see another letdown moment for the Cavs, they've been winning and covering everything in the past weeks, and I think they lose to a team that has been dosing their game, very rarely having to show up big, or even being challenged to do so.
I don't believe either of these two teams see any special rivalry here, but both will of course want to win. You might be a follower of the theory of pounding the home dog in this situation (and have all the reason and right to do so), but I'm taking the other side, one of us will hit. :shake:
GL.
B
Billivy
Guest
i've done all i can
(this is not simply a motivational edge however...the home team OR Cleveland has covered 9 of 10 ATS in these two teams' last 10 matchups)...Cleveland off a loss @ home vs Dallas in the midst of a winning streak on the road gives a nice situational edge as well)
(this is not simply a motivational edge however...the home team OR Cleveland has covered 9 of 10 ATS in these two teams' last 10 matchups)...Cleveland off a loss @ home vs Dallas in the midst of a winning streak on the road gives a nice situational edge as well)
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
like the cavs play ...bol
Well lets keep with the irrational thinking theory.....
The Cavs are not all that impressive of a home team in my opinion. They are good and they get they have a good fan base but frankly in more than half of their big home games this year they have put up stinkers
vs Phoenix(100-115)
vs Detroit(71-87)
vs Detroit(78-90)
vs Chicago(78-84)
I won;t add in bad home losses to clubs like New York and Atlanta.
You may say that these other games were irrelevant..King James is playing ball now...or Drew Gooden's pussy isn't as sore as earlier in the season..
Bullshit-your using trends like catching 3.5 @ home and how the home team has won 8 of 10(obviously covering 5 years). That stuff is all in the past just like the other games are. But..these other games also provide a foundation for looking at this game..
Clevleland with revenge got drilled by Detroit @ home this year. They then got drilled @ Detroit with double revenge. They then got drilled with triple revenge against Detroit @ home. They finally broke that a few weeks ago here. Very suprising it would take the great King James 4 games to overcome such a mountain(lol).
This isn't really a revenge game. Yes Dallas won the first time but they were expected to. Its not like their is some hate between the two teams. This isn't a natural rivalry.
Can Cleveland win? Of course. James has a super game of say 38-8-8 and the team shoots the ball well they have a very good chance. Heres saying that while he gets his the rest of the team will be cut off for most part.
Dallas 94-87
...The Cavs are not all that impressive of a home team in my opinion. They are good and they get they have a good fan base but frankly in more than half of their big home games this year they have put up stinkers
vs Phoenix(100-115)
vs Detroit(71-87)
vs Detroit(78-90)
vs Chicago(78-84)
I won;t add in bad home losses to clubs like New York and Atlanta.
You may say that these other games were irrelevant..King James is playing ball now...or Drew Gooden's pussy isn't as sore as earlier in the season..
Bullshit-your using trends like catching 3.5 @ home and how the home team has won 8 of 10(obviously covering 5 years). That stuff is all in the past just like the other games are. But..these other games also provide a foundation for looking at this game..
Clevleland with revenge got drilled by Detroit @ home this year. They then got drilled @ Detroit with double revenge. They then got drilled with triple revenge against Detroit @ home. They finally broke that a few weeks ago here. Very suprising it would take the great King James 4 games to overcome such a mountain(lol).
This isn't really a revenge game. Yes Dallas won the first time but they were expected to. Its not like their is some hate between the two teams. This isn't a natural rivalry.
Can Cleveland win? Of course. James has a super game of say 38-8-8 and the team shoots the ball well they have a very good chance. Heres saying that while he gets his the rest of the team will be cut off for most part.
Dallas 94-87
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
The way the game ended... I just feel like this is somewhat a revenge.
The Cavs were definately holding back last night... 100%... I watched... they should be able to win this game tonight... the NBA would love it and I think they get the bounces, the calls, and LJ is so much better than Dirk in big matchups it isnt funny...
Plus Dirk recently leaked he gets "nervous" often... why would you do that? Leaking that alone only would worsen that condition in your own mind. He didn't play well last night and expect Clev to be PHYSICAL.
DET without Billups almost beat these guys... and the Cavs when motivated are about on par with DET healthy IMO... as are the Bulls, Heat... you might not see it yet but in the big games I feel you do.. and you will later in the playoffs
The Cavs were definately holding back last night... 100%... I watched... they should be able to win this game tonight... the NBA would love it and I think they get the bounces, the calls, and LJ is so much better than Dirk in big matchups it isnt funny...
Plus Dirk recently leaked he gets "nervous" often... why would you do that? Leaking that alone only would worsen that condition in your own mind. He didn't play well last night and expect Clev to be PHYSICAL.
DET without Billups almost beat these guys... and the Cavs when motivated are about on par with DET healthy IMO... as are the Bulls, Heat... you might not see it yet but in the big games I feel you do.. and you will later in the playoffs
lmao
B
Billivy
Guest
this game was not as much about revenge as it was a must win for cleveland IMO...
that being said, Dallas played this game like game 7 of the NBA finals....i will not bet against this team again this regular season...they dont ever coast through a second half, b2b on the road and they're fightin like the playoffs...i've never been more impressed...i said to killa before the game that james was gonna have 15 through 3 quarters and then explode in the 4th and put the cavs over the top...well he had 14 through 3 and 17 in the fourth...but dallas in typical dallas style simply locked everyone else and played the cavs like a top tonight....btw, dallas fts: 17-17...cavs missed 8...we lost this game at the FT line...but that doesn't matter, Dallas deserved to win, if it was closer...dallas would have closed harder
that being said, Dallas played this game like game 7 of the NBA finals....i will not bet against this team again this regular season...they dont ever coast through a second half, b2b on the road and they're fightin like the playoffs...i've never been more impressed...i said to killa before the game that james was gonna have 15 through 3 quarters and then explode in the 4th and put the cavs over the top...well he had 14 through 3 and 17 in the fourth...but dallas in typical dallas style simply locked everyone else and played the cavs like a top tonight....btw, dallas fts: 17-17...cavs missed 8...we lost this game at the FT line...but that doesn't matter, Dallas deserved to win, if it was closer...dallas would have closed harder
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Dallas has more than Pistons had last season, I'm not afraid of them peaking too early, they have plenty of guys to rely on and as long as they're blazing as a team the machine should find the way to fuel itself. They're just the best team in the league right now. Whether they win it, that's the question of the year.
Similar threads
