Cavaliers vs. Clippers: NBA Picks and Predictions
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, February 14, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Cleveland’s Current Streak
Right now, the Cavaliers are suffering an 0-9 ATS run.
They have repeatedly been non-competitive, losing six of those nine games by over 15 points.
Those six 15+-point losses came either against the Knicks or against teams that, like the Clippers, made the playoffs last year.
Player Injuries
Player injuries do not sufficiently explain the whole of Cleveland’s nine-game ATS losing streak.
Kevin Love has been injured since before this streak began. He remains out with a calf injury.
Larry Nance Jr. is also unable to play for an extended period of time.
But Nance Jr. was healthy and playing a full load for a part of the Cavaliers’ current streak.
Cleveland’s Half-Court Woes
One consistent problem with Cleveland is its ineffective half-court offense.
During its current nine-game ATS losing streak, Cleveland has failed to exceed 100 points five times.
This failure is reflective of its season-long difficulties with point production. Cleveland ranks second-to-last in points per game.
It’s hard to score points with an offense that’s so one-dimensional. The Cavs rank last in three-pointers made per game, instead relying heavily on attempting shots at the basket.
This reliance is problematic tonight because they lack a center who can stretch a defense by comfortably shooting threes. L.A., though, possesses solid rim protection with reputedly strong defense from center Serge Ibaka, who gladly stays near the rim.
I specify that the Cavaliers are horrible in the half-court because their coach has a scheme designed to offset their inferiority in the half-court.
Stylistically, Cleveland wants to play hectic and frenetic basketball. Its big thing is accruing turnovers and turning good defense into good offense.
Throughout the season, the Cavs have ranked among league leaders in forcing turnovers and wracking up steals.
Importance of Nance Jr.
Nance Jr. is important for his defense and for turning defense into offense. He is tied as the NBA’s leader in averaging 1.9 steals per game.
His absence — he has missed the last three games — has led to a noticeable deterioration in Cleveland’s ability to do what it wants defensively.
Without him, the Cavaliers are averaging 6.0 steals per game in their last three games. If this were a season-long figure, it would rank second-to-last.
Likewise, without Nance Jr., Cleveland is forcing an average of 12.3 turnovers per game, which would place its defense at 29th in this respect.
So without Nance Jr., Cleveland suddenly becomes one of the NBA’s worst teams in forcing turnovers and stealing the ball, which is crucial because Cleveland relies so heavily on doing these things defensively.
Turning L.A. over is already a difficult thing to do. The Clippers rank fourth in limiting turnovers and they remain effective in this aspect without a healthy Paul George.
Patrick Beverley Is Back
While George is injured, the return of point guard Patrick Beverley gives Los Angeles more ball-handling prowess and more security in possession. He is turning it over only 0.7 times per game.
As someone who can play upwards of 40 minutes in a game, Beverley stabilizes a Clipper offense that is lately turning the ball over even less than it usually does.
His greatest impact, though, arguably comes on the defensive side of the ball where he possesses a strong defensive rating of 101.8. With this defensive rating, Beverley ranks 68th out of 480 players.
Beverley’s return to form is particularly important tonight because he is notoriously feisty and reliably able to lock down his counterpart at point guard.
Cleveland’s offense is heavily reliant on the point guard. Two of its top three leading scorers — Collin Sexton and Darius Garland — are point guards.
It also helps that Kawhi Leonard — a two time Defensive Player of the Year — can guard the opposing team’s best smaller player.
Clippers Offense vs. Cavaliers Defense
The Clippers have gone from ranking 13th in three-pointers made per game last year to ranking 5th in the category this year.
Signing Luke Kennard has helped L.A. make this stylistic change and improvement. He’s converting 44.7 percent of his three-point opportunities.
This change is especially useful tonight because the Cavaliers do not do a good job of preventing open or wide open three-point shots. The Cavs are allowing the highest three-point percentage.
What Los Angeles loves to do is to set a pick-and-roll for one of its primary guys on offense who are comfortable making plays off a screen.
Guys like Kawhi will use a screen to drive inside in order to put more pressure on the defense.
Getting a defense to collapse creates open shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Cleveland is uniquely vulnerable against the pick-and-roll, ranking third-to-last against this play type based on PPP.
The Verdict
With consistent half-court woes, the return of Beverley, its one-dimensionality, L.A.’s rim protection, and the lessened ability without Nance Jr., to get steals, Cleveland will struggle to put up points.
But also, with its poor ball-screen defense, its difficulty contesting three-point shots, and the Clippers’ playmaking abilities in the ball-screen game and behind the arc, Cleveland will suffer defensively.
Team form — manifested in its nine-game ATS losing streak — will further hinder Cleveland.
Best Bet: Clippers ATS (odds TBA)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, February 14, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California
Cleveland’s Current Streak
Right now, the Cavaliers are suffering an 0-9 ATS run.
They have repeatedly been non-competitive, losing six of those nine games by over 15 points.
Those six 15+-point losses came either against the Knicks or against teams that, like the Clippers, made the playoffs last year.
Player Injuries
Player injuries do not sufficiently explain the whole of Cleveland’s nine-game ATS losing streak.
Kevin Love has been injured since before this streak began. He remains out with a calf injury.
Larry Nance Jr. is also unable to play for an extended period of time.
But Nance Jr. was healthy and playing a full load for a part of the Cavaliers’ current streak.
Cleveland’s Half-Court Woes
One consistent problem with Cleveland is its ineffective half-court offense.
During its current nine-game ATS losing streak, Cleveland has failed to exceed 100 points five times.
This failure is reflective of its season-long difficulties with point production. Cleveland ranks second-to-last in points per game.
It’s hard to score points with an offense that’s so one-dimensional. The Cavs rank last in three-pointers made per game, instead relying heavily on attempting shots at the basket.
This reliance is problematic tonight because they lack a center who can stretch a defense by comfortably shooting threes. L.A., though, possesses solid rim protection with reputedly strong defense from center Serge Ibaka, who gladly stays near the rim.
I specify that the Cavaliers are horrible in the half-court because their coach has a scheme designed to offset their inferiority in the half-court.
Stylistically, Cleveland wants to play hectic and frenetic basketball. Its big thing is accruing turnovers and turning good defense into good offense.
Throughout the season, the Cavs have ranked among league leaders in forcing turnovers and wracking up steals.
Importance of Nance Jr.
Nance Jr. is important for his defense and for turning defense into offense. He is tied as the NBA’s leader in averaging 1.9 steals per game.
His absence — he has missed the last three games — has led to a noticeable deterioration in Cleveland’s ability to do what it wants defensively.
Without him, the Cavaliers are averaging 6.0 steals per game in their last three games. If this were a season-long figure, it would rank second-to-last.
Likewise, without Nance Jr., Cleveland is forcing an average of 12.3 turnovers per game, which would place its defense at 29th in this respect.
So without Nance Jr., Cleveland suddenly becomes one of the NBA’s worst teams in forcing turnovers and stealing the ball, which is crucial because Cleveland relies so heavily on doing these things defensively.
Turning L.A. over is already a difficult thing to do. The Clippers rank fourth in limiting turnovers and they remain effective in this aspect without a healthy Paul George.
Patrick Beverley Is Back
While George is injured, the return of point guard Patrick Beverley gives Los Angeles more ball-handling prowess and more security in possession. He is turning it over only 0.7 times per game.
As someone who can play upwards of 40 minutes in a game, Beverley stabilizes a Clipper offense that is lately turning the ball over even less than it usually does.
His greatest impact, though, arguably comes on the defensive side of the ball where he possesses a strong defensive rating of 101.8. With this defensive rating, Beverley ranks 68th out of 480 players.
Beverley’s return to form is particularly important tonight because he is notoriously feisty and reliably able to lock down his counterpart at point guard.
Cleveland’s offense is heavily reliant on the point guard. Two of its top three leading scorers — Collin Sexton and Darius Garland — are point guards.
It also helps that Kawhi Leonard — a two time Defensive Player of the Year — can guard the opposing team’s best smaller player.
Clippers Offense vs. Cavaliers Defense
The Clippers have gone from ranking 13th in three-pointers made per game last year to ranking 5th in the category this year.
Signing Luke Kennard has helped L.A. make this stylistic change and improvement. He’s converting 44.7 percent of his three-point opportunities.
This change is especially useful tonight because the Cavaliers do not do a good job of preventing open or wide open three-point shots. The Cavs are allowing the highest three-point percentage.
What Los Angeles loves to do is to set a pick-and-roll for one of its primary guys on offense who are comfortable making plays off a screen.
Guys like Kawhi will use a screen to drive inside in order to put more pressure on the defense.
Getting a defense to collapse creates open shooting opportunities behind the arc.
Cleveland is uniquely vulnerable against the pick-and-roll, ranking third-to-last against this play type based on PPP.
The Verdict
With consistent half-court woes, the return of Beverley, its one-dimensionality, L.A.’s rim protection, and the lessened ability without Nance Jr., to get steals, Cleveland will struggle to put up points.
But also, with its poor ball-screen defense, its difficulty contesting three-point shots, and the Clippers’ playmaking abilities in the ball-screen game and behind the arc, Cleveland will suffer defensively.
Team form — manifested in its nine-game ATS losing streak — will further hinder Cleveland.
Best Bet: Clippers ATS (odds TBA)
