Carolinablue's Week 5 Thoughts

carolinablue

College Football Guru
First, just want to say congrats to all of you guys who were able to pull off a profit in week 6, as it was definitely one of the toughest weeks I can remember in my short 5 year "career" of posting plays online. Special recognition to those of you on the Terps and Illini, nice job!

Second, I want to say that I was very disappointed in my performance yesterday, but I don't regret any of the plays I made, because you gotta take the good with the bad, and yesterday there was definitely plenty of bad breaks to go around and then some! I honestly believe however, that over the course of a season, the good breaks will definitely outweigh the bad, so there is no need for a drastic overhaul or anything crazy. I am an early lines and favs player and that isn't going to change because I had a horrible day yesterday, because that is what has brought me profit year in and year out these last five years, so not gonna change who I am now because of one bad week.

I liken it to the stock market, as it will have its ups and downs over the course of the year, but at the end of the year, you are pretty close to guaranteed that you will make money if you stick to your guns, be smart with your money, and take the emotions out of your decisions. This is where money management comes in, as I won't lie, I was very tempted to chase last night with the late games or today with the NFL, but I didn't and won't, because that is not how you win in this game in the long run.

As I always say, this is a marathon and not a sprint, so time to learn what we can from week 5, and then put it behind us in the record books, as being pissed off about it will do nothing but cloud our minds for the journey that is the remainder of the cfb season.

The great thing about this game is that there is always another week right around the corner, with plenty of profit to be made, and this week is even more special because there is basically cfb on every night of the week beginning on Tuesday and running through Sunday, coupled with the fact that my birthday is next weekend (glad I got the horrible week out of the way this weekend vs next as imagine how much it would have sucked to have been that bad on my bday!). With all that said, let's recap the damage from week 5, and then let's put it behind us never to be spoken of again haha...
 
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As all you guys know, I am not one to disappear after a bad week, as that is just not my style. If you are gonna accept the hype after a good week, you gotta also be man enough to be around for the bad, as we will all have both throughout the season!

Week 5 Recap...
1-7 (-7.10 units)

Year to Date Record
24-18 +3.44 units (57.1%)

I guess I can take solace in the fact that I am sitting at 57.1% after having a 1-7 week. Guess that means I must have done something right the first 4 weeks of this season!

Losses
Purdue Over 38 - Tough one to swallow since they had 23 at half and could have had a lot more if they could have converted TDs instead of FGs in the redzone.

OU Over 38 - This one wasn't as tough to swallow as the Purdue one, as I was lucky to have a shot here, but man when OU got to 24 with 11 left in the 3rd, I thought I had a realistic shot to at least push, but we all know what happened after that. I was actually hoping for OT so I could get a miracle cover on this one haha.

PSU -2.5 - Gotta give Illinois credit, because they have had teams gift wrap games for them 2 weeks straight, and they were good enough to take the gifts and run with em, because most teams aren't able to capitalize like Illinois did. PSU had plenty of chances to not only cover but win by a fairly decent margin, but hey gotta give Illinois credit like I said b/c they took advantage of all the PSU gifts and bad decisions.

Clemson -2.5 - Not much to say here. When Clemson got that penalty to take the 7 off the board I knew I was in trouble. Too many stupid penalties and mental mistakes in this one. GT didn't do much on offense, but they didn't have to in this one. Might help create some line value on GT's next few opponents though as they didn't show me much in this game so I might consider going against them in subsequent weeks.

Houston -9.5 - Not much to say here either. Kept waiting for that Houston second half comeback and cover that never came. Nice job of stepping up by the ECU offense, and also nice finish to that one by the Pirates to pull off the SU win.

Rutgers -13.5 - All credit goes to Maryland here, as they had a brilliant gameplan and their big boys up front dominated RU in this one. Gotta give props to Maryland and all my friends back home for the big win (actually went to summer school in college park), as they played their hearts out and deserved the win. Nice bounceback from that disappointing loss vs Wake last week. Rutgers didn't lose this one, Maryland won it. There is a big difference.

Montana -26 - Not much to say here either. Montana sleepwalked through the first half then dominated the second on the scoreboard 15-0, even though it was closer than that on the field. They did enough to win and that was all. Credit to Weber State for hanging tough with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. Lotta heart demonstrated by the Wildcats yesterday.


WINS...oops I mean WIN
TROY -12.5 - The one game I win is the one that I think everyone in the entire free world disagreed with me on, which is kinda weird, but I will take it, as I had never gone 0-8 before and wasn't looking forward to that potential fate. Never thought I would be so happy with a 1-7 day, but from a mental standpoint, there is something about 1-7 that is a million times better than 0-8. Hard to explain, but those of you who were also faced with the 0-fer yesterday will probably understand haha.


Overall, no excuses on any play, as I don't regret making any of em, as I used the same methods for these plays that I did for the plays that got me to 18-5 in my last 23 before yesterday, so just gonna chalk it up (no pun intended) to one of those days that will happen a few times in the course of a season.

Now that I have that recap out of the way, it's time to move on the week 6!
 
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Man RJ, I would have killed for 2-4 yesterday haha. I felt like I was in a bad dream yesterday as every bad break seemed to go against me, it was really weird. By the same token, I have had a lot of breaks go my way the past few years so that is why I am not out on a ledge or anything. Thankfully I didn't start chasing on 2H plays and stuff like that, but not gonna lie, I was really tempted yesterday and not afraid to admit it. The key is I resisted that temptation, and also resisted the urge to get pissed about all the plays I was "gonna play but didn't". That kinda stuff will drive ya crazy as you only remember all the ones you were gonna play that ended up winning, but never the ones you were gonna play that ended up losing!
 
cb,

just wanted to stop in and tell you to keep truckin'...you're a good capper bro...
 
I know what you mean, CB. I was staring at an 0-6 day with everything that happened.

I mean, I was on PSU, Clemson, and Rutgers with you so you know how the day was going till then.

Thankfully, the Buckeyes helped me out and because the day I was having I bought half of that bet back at Minny +24' with the hopes that I would middle with my four points. That's exactly what happened and I count myself very luck after tOSU fumbled on their own 5 yard line with 3 minutes left and Minny couldn't punch it in and the game was so far gone that going for a FG was meaningless.

Cincy took control as well to save my day.

Lots of top cappers got hit yesterday. Yesterday showed how unpredictable things could be and are sometimes. It also showed that this year any team can win any given day.

May be a "doggy" kind of year.
 
Been lurking for a long time and know your work well - after reading your recap thread, just got to say "YOU ARE ONE CLASS ACT"
Just keep doing what you've been doing and you will find yourself right back on top. Not to worry - we all still love you. :tiphat:
 
CB, we were on the same side on a number of your plays. It took me forever to get my first win yesterday. Wanting to get my first win yesterday was like wanting to lose my virginity in high school.

I'm sure you'll bounce back.
 
With you too CB, I got my ass handed to me yesterday but had done well the first 4 weeks. Agree totally with Riseman above. Appreciate your write ups and those of many others here.
 
Cb - I record your plays in a spreadsheet so I knew all about it.
Don't feel too bad. I went 9-21.
On to next week.
 
cb - We've all been there with the bad week before. Doesn't diminish your capping skills one bit (because we all know you're good). Capping is like a marathon, not a 40 yard dash. I think most people around here had a bad week 5.

Let's bounce back this week bro!

:cheers:
 
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