Carolinablue Week 8 College Football

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Hell of a win by my boys Saturday night as they finally exorcised the demons and turned the corner! Still a long way to go, but the best is yet to come!

GO HEELS!!!

Week 7 --> 10-10 -1.14 units
YTD 102-88-3 -3.64 units

Tuesday
7pm Liberty -13 108 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/-13 115 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)

Thursday
7pm Tulsa -2 115 BOL
7pm James Madison TT o25.5 118 BM

Saturday
12pm Boston College/Georgia Tech o58 113 BM
12pm Oklahoma -18 125 BM
12pm Penn State +5.5 110 BOL
12pm Air Force -8 120 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/-8 128 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
12pm Wagner -1 126 BM
12pm Howard -9.5 112 BM
12pm SC State -6.5 119 BM

1pm St Francis/Duquesne o57.5 115 BM
1pm Duquesne -2.5 125 BOL

2pm ECU -6.5 124 BM
2pm Georgia Southern -16.5 120 BM
2:30pm Western Carolina -3 123 BM
3pm Jackson State -20.5 115 BM

3:30pm Iowa -2.5 140 BOL
3:30pm West Virginia -2.5 135 BOL
3:30pm ND State -37 122 BM
4pm Miami Ohio +3 130 BOL
3:30pm Tennessee +10.5 130 BM
3:30pm Pitt +2.5 118 BM
3:30pm Eastern Michigan +13.5 125 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/+14 134 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
3:30pm Washington State/Oregon o59 123 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/o59 115 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
3:30pm South Carolina/Missouri o58.5 126 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/o58.5 115 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
3:30pm North Texas/Tulane o61 115 BM

6:30pm Heels TT o40.5 130 BOL
7pm Old Dominion +7 125 BM
7pm Ole Miss -4.5 108 (not limited at Heritage)
7:30pm Florida State -12.5 120 BOL
8pm Georgia State/ULL o59.5 119 BM (fill in to get to full unit)/o57 113 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
8pm Utah/USC o53 115 BM

10:30pm Washington -26.5 117 BOL
 
Last edited:
carolinablue said:
Hell of a win by my boys Saturday night as they finally exorcised the demons and turned the corner! Still a long way to go, but the best is yet to come!

GO HEELS!!!

Week 7 --> 10-10 -1.14 units
YTD 102-88-3 -3.64 units
Click to expand...
I got an extra ticket to the game vs Georgia Tech if you want to go. Lol
 
Great win, really didn't see that coming but that's why we're wrong a bunch of times. Time of year I really start capping look ahead games as opposed to what happened last week (that still plays but we're getting closer to rivalries and big picture type things). Not even sure when openers come out on DK or MGM, I'll probably just watch your thread because I know you'll be hitting when BOL drops them.
 
Heritage just floated out Ole Miss -4.5 108 with max $1000 so I went ahead and grabbed some as I figured it would be closer to 7
 
12pm Air Force -8 128 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)

It's a pain to split all my stuff up, but some of these numbers are solid enough at Heritage to make it worth my while.
 
3:30pm Eastern Michigan +14 134 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
KJ said:
Guess I'm surprised it moved that way, took it at 4.5 for fear it would drop to 4 or lower
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I think it will get there eventually as it moved pretty quickly to 5.5 115
 
carolinablue said:
3:30pm Eastern Michigan +14 134 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)

I think it will get there eventually as it moved pretty quickly to 5.5 115
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I only play lines early if they're a key number for me, rarely anythin above 10 because in this sport 12.5 and 14 might as well be the same to me. 4.5 I had to bite, would feel like I lost if it gets to 6 though
 
KJ said:
I only play lines early if they're a key number for me, rarely anythin above 10 because in this sport 12.5 and 14 might as well be the same to me. 4.5 I had to bite, would feel like I lost if it gets to 6 though
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Yeah, I try to track the ROI on my buys and over the past few years I have learned a lot in terms of when it makes sense for me, but totally get that everyone is different in that respect as there is no tried and true formula really. I know I won't get 14 at BM or BOL for example, but paying the 134 on a limit of $100 at Heritage to me is a way for me to leverage them in some way as I am handcuffed on the team totals, which is why I originally signed up with them at the start of the season.
 
No value for me in the Heels line at 24.5 even though 38-10 is doable, just not enough value in that big of a line for me to touch it
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, I try to track the ROI on my buys and over the past few years I have learned a lot in terms of when it makes sense for me, but totally get that everyone is different in that respect as there is no tried and true formula really. I know I won't get 14 at BM or BOL for example, but paying the 134 on a limit of $100 at Heritage to me is a way for me to leverage them in some way as I am handcuffed on the team totals, which is why I originally signed up with them at the start of the season.
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Funny you bring up 14, obviously it's better than 13 but I treat both of those numbers the same. Waited all day on Stanford +12.5 to move to 13 then it shot up to 13.5 in the last 30 minutes before kickoff. Not like it came into play but I wanted 13 dammit!
 
Ga Southern will be a play with ULM coming off another heartbreaker as when that happened vs App they got steamrolled big time and coach acknowledged it played with their heads a bit, which I don't blame em
 
KJ said:
Funny you bring up 14, obviously it's better than 13 but I treat both of those numbers the same. Waited all day on Stanford +12.5 to move to 13 then it shot up to 13.5 in the last 30 minutes before kickoff. Not like it came into play but I wanted 13 dammit!
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Yeah usually I look for the hook but not gonna do 14.5 164 or whatever it was as the value dies at that point. Hate playing for pushes but this one was more insurance against a 28-14 final. Crazy I know, but my mind is weird with some of these, have no prob admitting that!
 
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carolinablue said:
Yeah usually I look for the hook but not gonna do 14.5 164 or whatever it was as the value dies at that point. Hate playing for pushes but this one was more insurance against a 28-14 final. Crazy I know, but my mind is weird with some of these, have no prob admitting that!
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3,4 and 6 are my magic numbers. 7 is fine I guess but that's usually not a deal breaker. 7.5-9.5 are just dead weight. 10...sure. 11, it barely makes me think. 11.5-12.5, more dead weight. 13, 13.5, 14 are fringe but important numbers for me.

In CFB where so much BS happens and numbers get crooked in a hurry, I don't pay much attention after 14
 
KJ said:
3,4 and 6 are my magic numbers. 7 is fine I guess but that's usually not a deal breaker. 7.5-9.5 are just dead weight. 10...sure. 11, it barely makes me think. 11.5-12.5, more dead weight. 13, 13.5, 14 are fringe but important numbers for me.

In CFB where so much BS happens and numbers get crooked in a hurry, I don't pay much attention after 14
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Yeah, 3, 4, 7, 10, 13, 14 are probably my 6 but sometimes I like weird stuff on big spreads ie -23.5 instead of -24 or -27.5 instead of 28. Like I said, I know, weird haha...
 
Kinda like Pitt after I failed to submit the dog and over plays that I talked so much about this past week...I get distracted easily sometimes and of course I never get distracted off submitting losers!
 
Coastal would be nice at 6.5
ODU if I can get 7.5
Ga Southern at 16.5

These are a few I am waiting on at BM but nothing out yet...
 
carolinablue said:
Kinda like Pitt after I failed to submit the dog and over plays that I talked so much about this past week...I get distracted easily sometimes and of course I never get distracted off submitting losers!
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Man I woke up just before midnight last night and worked a system on live women's tennis but it takes a ton of attention to do it right. Failed a couple times but for the most part it worked. Attention deficit is the biggest problem for me in this hobby. Need an adderal script but my doc knows better lol
 
BM Adds...

AFA -8 120 - to get to full unit (should have waited and played the full unit here but I thought the line would be higher at BOL and BM)
EMU +13.5 125 - to get to full unit (will be a mixed line with the 14 134 at Heritage as no option for 14 at BM)
Liberty -13 108 (should have waited and played the full unit here, but again, I thought the line would be higher at BOL and BM)
 
3:30pm Washington State/Oregon o59 115 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
3:30pm South Carolina/Missouri o58.5 115 (limited to win $100 at Heritage)
 
M.W. said:
It's 23.5 at BM.
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Still too high for me as will want to just get in and out without any injuries, so if we get up big at the half, I wouldn't be surprised to see some reserves in the 4th, so don't want to leave open the possibility of a backdoor cover.
 
Got everything up to one unit now that BM has totals out. Man, I really hope I hit all those split plays as my head is gonna explode tryin to figure out the split math on any losers
 
12pm Boston College/Georgia Tech o58 113 BM

Should actually be a pretty entertaining one in the noon slot as Tech should be able to rack up 300 through the air while BC should have their way on the ground. Wouldn't be surprised to see it come down to the wire in a fun shootout Big 12 style. Now watch....3-3 at the half haha.
 
carolinablue said:
12pm Boston College/Georgia Tech o58 113 BM

Should actually be a pretty entertaining one in the noon slot as Tech should be able to rack up 300 through the air while BC should have their way on the ground. Wouldn't be surprised to see it come down to the wire in a fun shootout Big 12 style. Now watch....3-3 at the half haha.
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Bc 6 straight overs too……..gotta ride the train……
 
Heard on local sports radio this morning that Riley Leonard has been practicing and looking good and if he keeps it up the next couple of days, he will be cleared to play against FSU. Guess we will know for sure if the line drops so take it for what you will..
 
Not gonna overthink this one as I considered taking JMU but line didn’t offer much value at 3.5 on the road against a decent Marshall team that should have a fired up crowd tonight.

This one is a play against the Marshall run D more than anything as I wouldn’t be surprised if they win SU, but would be if they did it with defense.

7pm James Madison TT o25.5 118 BM
 
carolinablue said:
Not gonna overthink this one as I considered taking JMU but line didn’t offer much value at 3.5 on the road against a decent Marshall team that should have a fired up crowd tonight.

This one is a play against the Marshall run D more than anything as I wouldn’t be surprised if they win SU, but would be if they did it with defense.

7pm James Madison TT o25.5 118 BM
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did you know that when a team gets their team total over they cover at a high rate when the line is fairly small.

You are expecting points from JMad and Marshall should also contribute to the total going over. Assuming all of this the over should be good.

Side, you like JMad to score and if they can get over 26 points I will show that the side you like and over, are correlated for a parlay to maximize profits and ROI


KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

I like Marshall tonight so I am not with you but I thought that I would share so you could track these team total bets.
 
spottie2935 said:
did you know that when a team gets their team total over they cover at a high rate when the line is fairly small.

You are expecting points from JMad and Marshall should also contribute to the total going over. Assuming all of this the over should be good.

Side, you like JMad to score and if they can get over 26 points I will show that the side you like and over, are correlated for a parlay to maximize profits and ROI


KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

I like Marshall tonight so I am not with you but I thought that I would share so you could track these team total bets.
Click to expand...
Thanks man I appreciate the info as I tend to go with the one play that makes the most sense for me rather than multiples on a game but your info makes perfect sense!
 
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