Carolinablue Week 6 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
All plays at The Greek unless otherwise noted.

MEMPHIS -2.5 115 WINNER
INDIANA -12 110 WINNER
UCF -2.5 115 LOSER
ARKIE STATE -2.5 115 LOSER
TEXAS TECH -24 120 WINNER
ULL -6 120 (at 5 Dimes) WINNER
KSU -2.5 120 (at 5 Dimes) LOSER

That's all for week 6. Best of luck to everyone this week!
 
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I am getting back to what I do best and that is finding those under the radar games that have solid value. I will leave the tv games to everyone else, as they are not the games that have made me all of my money these past few years. Doesn't mean I won't be playing teams from BCS conferences, just means that I won't be on many of the games that will be on ABC, ESPN, etc. I should have taken it as a bad sign that 75% of my games in week 5 were on tv, I don't think that has ever happened to me before haha.
 
Hey, CB, know you'll do a brief write up later, but what are your thoughts on Memphis in this shitbowl vs. Marshall?

Memphis has a very short week and both teams not doing so hot.
 
frankiegotti said:
CB, i see you are from ohio...Does that mean you are a buckeye football fan?
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Nah, I went to school in Chapel Hill, so I will always be a Tarheel fan. Actually grew up not too far from College Park, so used to go to Cole Field House or Byrd Stadium when I was younger to catch the Terps play either football or basketball at least once a year.
 
RJ Esq said:
Hey, CB, know you'll do a brief write up later, but what are your thoughts on Memphis in this shitbowl vs. Marshall?

Memphis has a very short week and both teams not doing so hot.
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Basically for me, this one comes down to the fact that Marshall can't stop the run (#118 rush defense), can't run the ball (#111), and they are one of the bottom 10 in the country with regard to turnover margin (#108). Add those things to the fact that Memphis is at home with a chance to begin a turnaround in their season against an opponent about equal to them, and I like my shot laying less than a FG. I know the line has dropped to 1.5 but 2 is an irrelevant number, so not concerned about that at all. Hope that helps.
 
CB, No concerns about Memphis throwing the towel in on the season after that disaster last Thursday? This is the 3rd game in 11 days for them as well.
 
carolinablue said:
Basically for me, this one comes down to the fact that Marshall can't stop the run (#118 rush defense), can't run the ball (#111), and they are one of the bottom 10 in the country with regard to turnover margin (#108). Add those things to the fact that Memphis is at home with a chance to begin a turnaround in their season against an opponent about equal to them, and I like my shot laying less than a FG. I know the line has dropped to 1.5 but 2 is an irrelevant number, so not concerned about that at all. Hope that helps.
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:cheers:
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
CB, No concerns about Memphis throwing the towel in on the season after that disaster last Thursday? This is the 3rd game in 11 days for them as well.
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Nope. Could use the same argument against Marshall after the embarrassing home loss vs UNH. I actually think the short week helps Memphis rather than hurts, because the best thing to do after a loss like they had is to get back on the field so you can put it behind you. It would be worse if they had an off week to let it sink in, so no concerns there.
 
Added Texas Tech, as I think Leach is gonna continue his pattern of preying on the weak as he is all about setting as many records as he can this year with this team, especially since they don't have the ability to beat anyone halfway decent. Tech at home with their offensive machine vs an ISU squad that averages less than 20ppg equals a solid chance at a cover here.
 
Waiting on 5dimes to come out with their full slate of lines, as they haven't released any Saturday games yet.

Only other games I am considering are ULL, KSU, and Wake. Have some more research to do on those, but may play 1 or 2 of the above depending on line movement, injury updates, additional data, etc. Was going to play the Ville at the Greek but the line moved to 14.5 so no play for me. Was hoping it would hit 13 but no such luck now, oh well.
 
Hey, CB--

I consider you to be one of the best at figuring out the Sun Belt and I see you considering ULL. So am I.

I use 2 Power Rankings--one subjective and one more objective that figures in the strength of opponents, margin of victory, and HFAs of the last 3 games for each team. I consider it to be a "streak" power ranking.

Using the subjective rankings (what I come up with off the top of my head), I think the line should be -14. Using the 2nd objective power ranking, the line should be -9.

So there looks to be value there.

Also looks to be value on Arky St (which you're already on). Again, my lines make it -3 and -17 (using the subjective and objective power rankings, respectively). Arky St has been a surprise for me and are one of the top 3 Sun Belt teams (Troy, FAU, and Arky St).

What are your thoughts on this one?
 
thoughts on Kentuck, i like the way they are playing, and woodson threw his first int. (gets that out of his mind) getting +3.5. vs South carolina, they are good, but good enought to contain that offense and ktcky's defense seems to be getting netter? thanks
 
RJ Esq said:
Hey, CB--

I consider you to be one of the best at figuring out the Sun Belt and I see you considering ULL. So am I.

I use 2 Power Rankings--one subjective and one more objective that figures in the strength of opponents, margin of victory, and HFAs of the last 3 games for each team. I consider it to be a "streak" power ranking.

Using the subjective rankings (what I come up with off the top of my head), I think the line should be -14. Using the 2nd objective power ranking, the line should be -9.

So there looks to be value there.

Also looks to be value on Arky St (which you're already on). Again, my lines make it -3 and -17 (using the subjective and objective power rankings, respectively). Arky St has been a surprise for me and are one of the top 3 Sun Belt teams (Troy, FAU, and Arky St).

What are your thoughts on this one?
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Already added it at 6 120 at 5dimes, just haven't posted yet, as my internet is acting weird. Gotta do a scan in a sec. Greek still has it at 7 110 but it has been bouncing between 6.5 and 7.5 since open at most places.

My play on ULL is mainly based on the fact that North Texas can't stop the run if their lives depended on it, so I look for ULL to get about 200+ in this one. NT will air it out all day, and ULL is fairly decent against the pass, so in the end I think ULL will wear em down and cause a few turnovers as well, as North Texas is in the bottom 10 when it comes to turnover margin. Both teams suck, but ULL sucks worse and gets to play at home knowing that this is one of their few shots at a W this year, so I will go with ULL -6. How's that for capping haha.
 
TheCashMan said:
thoughts on Kentuck, i like the way they are playing, and woodson threw his first int. (gets that out of his mind) getting +3.5. vs South carolina, they are good, but good enought to contain that offense and ktcky's defense seems to be getting netter? thanks
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Honestly don't have a feel for it at that line. Was hoping to get 6 but I don't see the value in 3.5 or 4 or whatever the line is right now. Toss up as far as I am concerned, hence the 3 for HFA in SC's favor. Tough one to call either way.
 
Added KSU -2.5 at 5Dimes

There are a number of reasons why I decided to make this my final play on the week 6 card...

-KU is 4-21 in its last 25 road games
-KU has lost 8 straight to KSU in Manhattan
-KU is 0-7 all time vs KSU when KSU has been in the Top 25 (#24 this wk)
-KU hasn't won in Manhattan since 1989
-KU is 23-137-2 vs ranked opponents
-KU beat KSU 39-20 last year, so revenge factor will be huge in this one
-KU hasn't had a road game yet all year
-KU hasn't played anyone of substance yet all year
-KSU has played a much tougher level of competition
-KU has lost its first road game of the year, for the last 3 years

Now, I am not a huge trend player, but in a rivalry game when both teams are pretty much equal, I will typically lean to the home team who has faced tougher competition, and who has a history of winning in the series, over the unproven road team. I know KU has been impressive so far this season, but once I looked back over their schedule, I was brought back to reality, as they harken me back to the days of the old Georgetown Hoyas basketball team, who I believe invented the term cupcake city in reference to their early season strength of schedule.

Should be a fun birthday weekend for me. 7 plays on the card and not one marquee matchup anywhere to be found...just the way I like it!

Best of luck to everyone this week.
 
Could you write a little bit more about your Memphis pick? Interested in your reasons... thanks!
 
Card looks very solid, Memphis line seems to be going to other way, GL this weekend hopefully teh gambling gods reverse our fortunes.
 
GL this week CB .

Considering UCF as well. Would appreciate your thoughts on how you see this game playinhg out.
 
frankiegotti said:
Card looks very solid, Memphis line seems to be going to other way, GL this weekend hopefully teh gambling gods reverse our fortunes.
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Line dropped from 3 to 1.5 back up to 2.5, so the moves are pretty much irrelevant in the whole scheme of things as it only crossed 2 but never got under 1. At one point the ML dropped to 120 at 5dimes, so I have to admit that would have been nice, but it was only there for a few mins if that.

I am not worried about this week at all, as it is all about the long term for me, so one or two bad weeks definitely won't cause me to change what has worked for 5 years.
 
Temujin said:
Could you write a little bit more about your Memphis pick? Interested in your reasons... thanks!
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Here is what I wrote in response to RJ's question about the game last night....

Basically for me, this one comes down to the fact that Marshall can't stop the run (#118 rush defense), can't run the ball (#111), and they are one of the bottom 10 in the country with regard to turnover margin (#108). Add those things to the fact that Memphis is at home with a chance to begin a turnaround in their season against an opponent about equal to them, and I like my shot laying less than a FG. I know the line has dropped to 1.5 but 2 is an irrelevant number, so not concerned about that at all. Hope that helps.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Think I'm sold now, CB, especially with the death. Memphis' problem against equal and weaker opponents has been holding a lead (Arky St, etc.). I think they'll have to fight the same problem here as they jump out early and have to defend a big lead gained by emotion.

Price is right too under a FG.
 
GL bro. Im definlty going to be following you on some of these smaller games the next couple weeks. Hope you hit em all
 
CB, thanks for getting back to me on Kentucky.

Now on to Ark state, this line seems similar to the last week penn state and clemson games both at -3 road faves, monroe has faced some tough competition on the road and now come home and play a team who looks good and i think would be a higher favorite. why would ark win this game? carry over from last weeks second half? or monroe wont be able to stop ark state? thanks again for your time!
 
TheCashMan said:
CB, thanks for getting back to me on Kentucky.

Now on to Ark state, this line seems similar to the last week penn state and clemson games both at -3 road faves, monroe has faced some tough competition on the road and now come home and play a team who looks good and i think would be a higher favorite. why would ark win this game? carry over from last weeks second half? or monroe wont be able to stop ark state? thanks again for your time!
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Cash - This game to me comes down to the fact that ULM is a one dimensional team with no passing game and a bottom 10-15 defense in pretty much every category imaginable, hence the 0-4 record. While Arkie State isn't a world beater by any means, they do have a balanced attack and a passable defense, so I like my chances at less than a FG even though they are a road fav, especially since HFA in the Sunbelt is nowhere near the advantage that it is in the Big 10 and ACC of course. Hope that helps.
 
A few key factors that played a role in my plays above
Memphis with a solid running game, going up against the #118 rush def
Memphis #35 turnover margin vs Marshall #108
Indiana with a solid passing attack, going up against the #119 pass def
Indiana #23 total offense vs Minny #117 total def
Indiana #18 turnover margin vs Minny #118
ULM #102 rush def, #110 pass def, #114 scoring def
ISU #111 turnover margin and #105 scoring offense
KSU trends listed in above post
ULL #9 rush off vs NT #114 rush def
NT #119 total def, #119 scoring def, #107 turnover margin


These are just some of the factors involved in my decision making. I have other factors of course, but just wanted to point out a few since I won't have much time for writeups this week unfortunately.
 
carolinablue said:
I am getting back to what I do best and that is finding those under the radar games that have solid value. I will leave the tv games to everyone else, as they are not the games that have made me all of my money these past few years. Doesn't mean I won't be playing teams from BCS conferences, just means that I won't be on many of the games that will be on ABC, ESPN, etc. I should have taken it as a bad sign that 75% of my games in week 5 were on tv, I don't think that has ever happened to me before haha.
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Well put, Cb.
I came to this conclusion about a year ago, and absolutely agree with you 100%.
GL
 
I feel good about the nice hit I got on Memphis last night at -2.5 as turnovers turned out to be one of the deciding factors, which was to be expected, given the fact that Marshall was #108 in turnover margin.

Have to admit I was surprised that Memphis did not work to establish the running game early on against the Marshall run defense, but alls well that ends well as Memphis got the cover in the end and that is all that matters.

I will officially go on record with the following: I will never play Memphis ever again as they are just painful to watch, with all the stupid mistakes, mental errors, overthrown balls, dropped passes, missed opportunities, etc. I think I aged about 10 years watchin those guys last night, it was brutal. But thankfully, they stepped it up in the second half when everyone thought the whole "3 games in 11 days thing" was going to be their downfall. They didn't play great, heck they didn't even play good, but they played well enough to cover and that is what counts!

1 down and 6 to go as I look for a clean sweep of the board this week, as that is the best birthday present I can give myself this weekend!
 
Good call on Memphis last night CB. I was with you on the -2.5 based on the death and Marshall being winless and on the road. Glad to see both of us cash it.

:smiley_acbe:
 
Line moves...

Indiana now up to 14 from 12
UCF now up to 4 from 2.5
Arkie State still at 2.5
Texas Tech down to 24 110
ULL up to 8 from 6.5
KSU up to 3 125 from 3 110
 
askias said:
Good call on Memphis last night CB. I was with you on the -2.5 based on the death and Marshall being winless and on the road. Glad to see both of us cash it.

:smiley_acbe:
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Glad I could help you bring home the cash askias. Always happy to help others out when I can, as like I always say, this is definitely not a zero sum game. Our only opposition should be the books not each other, as there is plenty of profit to go around for all of us!

Best of luck this weekend.
 
B.A.R. said:
got ther best of most of them


gl this week CB
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Yeah, been doing a pretty good job of predicting them this year, although I have to admit I was a little nervous with the Memphis game on Tuesday as I thought my early jump on the 2.5 was gonna come back to haunt me since the line hit 1.5 at one point during the week and I was afraid it was gonna end up being a 2pt game. Luckily, I came out ok on that one, but man, I was sweating it out for a while. Best of luck with UK tonight.
 
Thanks Ray. This is my birthday weekend, so my wife is cooking all my gameday food as we speak. She promised me 12 hrs of uninterrupted football viewing, with everything from wings to nachos cooked for me and ready to go by the noon kickoffs, so what else could a guy ask for.
 
2-1 so far in week 6, with wins on Memphis and Indiana and the sole loss on KSU. The rest of my card doesn't start till 7pm, so gonna just hang back and watch the OU v Texas game till then.

Nice job by Indiana to close that backdoor on Minny in the 4th. Gotta give credit to you KU backers out there as they got the job done today in Manhattan, nice call.
 
4-3 on the week, as it wasn't pretty, but I ended the day with some profit in the bank, so all is good. At the end of the day it is all about whether or not you brought home the profit, so I will gladly take my 4-3 today as that translates into more profit in the account. Best of luck to you guys on the night game, I will be getting ready for week 7 while I catch the end of the LSU v Florida game.
 
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