Carolinablue Week 6 College Football

[carolinablue]

Even though the outcome wasn't what I had hoped for, I am still really proud of the way my Heels battled on Saturday as no one game them a chance and they were one play away from potentially shocking the world. Plenty more I could say about that one, but no rest for the weary as it is time for Week 6 and also time for me to get this profit train back on track as it has been off the tracks a bit the past two weeks.

Week 5 Results = 7-9 -3.45 Units

I will say however, that the past 2 weeks were a perfect example of why discipline and having a long term vision is so important, because I could have easily read my own press clippings after the first 3 weeks and started increasing my units in Week 4, but thankfully I stayed the course, so the last 2 under 500 weeks did not do major damage to the long-term plan as I am still sitting on a nice profit to date.

Week 1 = 9-3 +5.6 Units
Week 2 = 10-2 +7.8 Units
Week 3 = 7-5-1 +1.15 Units
Week 4 = 5-7 -2.85 Units
Week 5 = 7-9 -3.45 Units

Through Week 5 - Hitting at a 59.4% clip with a 38-26-1 record and up +8.25 Units on the year

Week 6 Plays coming as soon as BOL gets them up as it looks like they are later than usual again this week...


Week 6 Plays
315 UNC v Ga Tech Under 49.5 115
320 Penn State -20.5 115
334 Wisconsin -35.5 110
341 Liberty -3.5 120
351 Washington -13 115
354 SMU -14 110
363 Georgia -23 110
369 Oklahoma -33.5 110
387 UMass +25.5 110
377 Marshall v MTSU Over 56.5 110
387 UMass v FIU Over 68.5 115
396 UTEP PK 110

Added Team Totals from Bovada...
354 SMU Over 36.5 125
363 Georgia Over 37.5 125
380 Notre Dame TT Over 52.5 115
387 UMass Over 20.5 115

 

[carolinablue]

PSU -20.5 115

 

[carolinablue]

Wisky -35.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

Washington -13 115

 

[carolinablue]

SMU -14 110 (moved to 13.5 then up to 15)

 

[carolinablue]

Georgia -23 110

 

[carolinablue]

Oklahoma -33.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

UMass +25.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

Yes, that UMass play is not a typo...I am actually taking a dog LOL

 

[carolinablue]

Will have my eye on 3 team totals and 1 game total when those lines get posted later this week...

 

[number2]

Will have my eye on 3 team totals and 1 game total when those lines get posted later this week...

U eyeing the Umass total and TT ?

 

[Tom Sarefield]

CB,
Mack attack played out of their minds. Nothing to feel bad about. Just wish they kicked extra point, go to O.T.
Good luck this week. Keep the winners comin.

 

[carolinablue]

U eyeing the Umass total and TT ?

Yep

 

[carolinablue]

CB,
Mack attack played out of their minds. Nothing to feel bad about. Just wish they kicked extra point, go to O.T.
Good luck this week. Keep the winners comin.

I’m fine with going for 2 given the injuries on defense and the depth issues, not to mention the need to change the culture so no problem at all from me in the decision.

We all know that if we had lost in OT (which is highly likely given the fact that the cream typically rises to the top the longer a game plays out) most would have gone after Mack for not going for the win when he had the chance, so again no issues at all from me.

 

[carolinablue]

U eyeing the Umass total and TT ?

Game total might be too high though so TT has more appeal to me as UMass should be good for at least 24 as I actually might put 50 on them to win SU as I am not sold on FIU.

 

[PaintCrew]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1178686305221435392

 

[carolinablue]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1178686305221435392

Thanks for the info! I figured he wasn't going to be in there Saturday which is the reason I jumped as soon as I saw 20.5. Last I checked, it was up to 26, so nice to know I got one right!

 

[carolinablue]

Added Total Plays...

377 Marshall v MTSU Over 56.5 110
387 UMass v FIU Over 68.5 115

 

[carolinablue]

Added hold your nose play...

396 UTEP PK 110

 

[carolinablue]

Added "I can't believe I am taking an under" Play...

315 UNC v Ga Tech Under 49.5 115

 

[EFC1878]

Talk me off UNC -9.5. I’ve watched a healthy (unhealthy?) amount of Ga Tech this year and that offense is so horrifically bad that I feel 24 from the Heels would be enough to cover this number. I get the letdown angle, but the flip side could also be a very young team that suddenly realizes “Hey, we really are good enough to play with anyone.” It’s much more of a fade lean on GT than a play in Carolina, but figured I’d get your thoughts.

 

[carolinablue]

Talk me off UNC -9.5. I’ve watched a healthy (unhealthy?) amount of Ga Tech this year and that offense is so horrifically bad that I feel 24 from the Heels would be enough to cover this number. I get the letdown angle, but the flip side could also be a very young team that suddenly realizes “Hey, we really are good enough to play with anyone.” It’s much more of a fade lean on GT than a play in Carolina, but figured I’d get your thoughts.

First off, let me state that I 100% agree with you about the Tech offense and I actually think that we should win this one by DDs easily and I expect us to do just that.

With that said, I just don't think there is any value laying 9.5 given the injuries we are dealing with on defense, the close games we have played each week and the fact that we have lost something like 9 outta 10 on the road against those guys (I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong as I threw that one out from memory so may be off a bit).

Our defense should be able to hold Tech to 10 or less and I am confident we should be able to put up at least 20 or more, but that doesn't equate to value at the 9.5 in my opinion as I am not sure we should be favored by 9.5 against anyone left on our schedule (excluding Mercer and including Va Tech), until we prove that we can play a complete game from start to finish.

My plays are all about variance so if this line was say 3.5 I would be all over it as I think we win by at least 10, but since the line is in line with what I am thinking, that equals no play for me. If you do decide to play, of course I hope you cash big time as I want my Heels to win 31-3 or something along those lines which is entirely possible if we play up to our potential. Not trying to talk you off of any plays so hope it doesn't come off that way. Just wanted to give my perspective, so hope that helped a bit.

Best of luck this weekend!

CB

 

[carolinablue]

Added Team Totals from Bovada...

354 SMU Over 36.5 125
363 Georgia Over 37.5 125
387 UMass Over 20.5 115

 

[PaintCrew]

Thanks for the info! I figured he wasn't going to be in there Saturday which is the reason I jumped as soon as I saw 20.5. Last I checked, it was up to 26, so nice to know I got one right!

Yeah that's a heck of a grab. I saw it open even lower but unfortunately I wasn't around for it. The energy getting sucked completely out of Ross Ade on saturday when Sindelar and Moore went down on the same play is not something I'll soon forget and going to Penn St sure isn't the place for a raw/young team to get right.

 

[carolinablue]

That's all for this week...Hope everyone has a great start to October!

 

[carolinablue]

Yeah that's a heck of a grab. I saw it open even lower but unfortunately I wasn't around for it. The energy getting sucked completely out of Ross Ade on saturday when Sindelar and Moore went down on the same play is not something I'll soon forget and going to Penn St sure isn't the place for a raw/young team to get right.

Yeah I just happened to be around at open yesterday as I was just about to head out since the lines came out later than normal, but then I saw them starting to post so I stuck around for a while so I could get everything in since I knew this week was going to be heavy on the big favs and I figured those lines wouldn't be around today. Guessed right on most this week which is something I haven't done the last 2 weeks, so hopefully that is a good sign!

My best weeks are typically when I get at least 1 to 2 points of value at open vs where the line settles in on Monday/Tuesday, and right now most of my side plays are in that window which makes me feel pretty good about the work I put in early Sunday on Week 6. Of course, I won't know for sure until things play out on Saturday, but hoping this is a sign of good things to come this weekend!

 

[carolinablue]

“We’re going to be aggressive,” Brown said. “I’m at a stage in my life where I don’t care about anything but winning and doing it within the rules.

So if anybody wants to criticize me, who cares? I don’t care. I’m not looking for another job. So I think the biggest thing is that it’s freedom to be this age and to have won this many games and be able to do what you think is best for your team.”

 

[mrob]

BOL CB, dam I wish UNC got that conversion.

 

[carolinablue]

Notre Dame TT Over 52.5 115

 

[carolinablue]

Notre Dame TT Over 52.5 115

See this one at 59-7 so the team total has slightly more value than the game total.

 

[carolinablue]

Wednesday night was a great night for wrestling fans by the way as both NXT and AEW delivered a quality product that clearly demonstrates that the fans will be the real winners of the “Wednesday Night Wars”

 

[carolinablue]

Really tempted to pull the trigger on UCF at 3 120 but checking out a few more things in the am before I hit that submit button.

 

[carolinablue]

341 Liberty -3.5 120 at NMSU

 

[carolinablue]

Updated Card

Week 6 Plays
315 UNC v Ga Tech Under 49.5 115
320 Penn State -20.5 115
334 Wisconsin -35.5 110
341 Liberty -3.5 120
351 Washington -13 115
354 SMU -14 110
363 Georgia -23 110
369 Oklahoma -33.5 110
387 UMass +25.5 110
377 Marshall v MTSU Over 56.5 110
387 UMass v FIU Over 68.5 115
396 UTEP PK 110

Added Team Totals from Bovada...
354 SMU Over 36.5 125
363 Georgia Over 37.5 125
380 Notre Dame TT Over 52.5 115
387 UMass Over 20.5 115

 

[Tom Sarefield]

Good luck this weekend Blue!! Love both picks on SMU.
Go Heels.

 

[carolinablue]

Good luck this weekend Blue!! Love both picks on SMU.
Go Heels.

Thanks Tom, you too man.

As WWE said after losing handily to AEW in the Wednesday night ratings battle...

"This Is A Marathon, Not A One-Night Sprint"

 

[Tom Sarefield]

Thanks Tom, you too man.

As WWE said after losing handily to AEW in the Wednesday night ratings battle...

"This Is A Marathon, Not A One-Night Sprint"

Agreed.