Carolinablue Week 6 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Poor showing in Week 5 as I ended up 3-4 -1.6 units as my Memphis and Incarnate Word plays were just plain bad calls on my part. Have to admit that the Heels finish made it the best losing weekend I have ever had in my life, so while I don't want to make it a habit, for one week at least, I will gladly trade the 1.6 units for the euphoria I felt after that kick went through the uprights.

Year to Date 28-19 60% +6.464 units

Week 6 Plays at BOL
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 349 Notre Dame -2½ -115 for GAME - jumped too early on this line as I thought it would cross 3 but now at 1.5
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 354 Eastern Michigan +18½ -110 for GAME - this one now down to 16.5 so actually guessed right on this one
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 320 Buffalo -1 -110 for GAME - happy to get anything under 3 with the home team in a matchup of bad teams
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 318 Akron -6½ -115 for GAME - guessed wrong again as this one now at 105..oh well
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 362 Miami Florida -1½ -110 for GAME - only other one I guessed right on as I see 3 to 3.5 now
Football - 348 North Carolina -2½ -110 for Game - was waiting patiently for this one to get under 3 and it did, so not looking back
Football - 351 Bowling Green +14½ -110 for Game - expecting another MAC dogfight this week so happy to have 3 scores
Football - 347 Virginia Tech/North Carolina under 59 -115 for Game - hope all those college meteorology classes pay off this weekend
Football - 374 Wyoming +11½ -125 buying -½ for Game - expecting a 1 score game either way as Hill will be tough for AFA to handle
Football - 384 Nevada -6½ -125 buying -½ for Game - both teams horrible against the run, but believe only Nevada will take advantage
Football - 355 Houston -16½ -125 buying -½ for Game - love big favs who understand not to take their foot off the gas in 2H
Added Emu team total over 23 110

Week 6 Plays at 5D
10/8/16 3:30pm College Football 363 Texas State +10½ -110* vs Georgia State - I'll take 2 scores vs no rush O or D GSU
10/8/16 4:30pm College Extra Football 579 Mississippi Valley State +53½ -120* vs Montana - risking 0.96 to win 0.80 at 5D
10/8/16 4:30pm College Extra Football 579 Mississippi Valley State +52½ -120* vs Montana - risking 0.24 to win 0.20 at 5D
10/8/16 3:00pm College Football 354 Eastern Michigan +625* vs Toledo - risking 0.2 units
10/8/16 3:30pm College Football 347 Virginia Tech/North Carolina Under 59 -110* - added a play at 5D to win 0.5 units before it drops
 
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BOL his week CB. Tailed you on all but 1. Can't break the rule. No play either way on Miami for me, but that line on appy at a few weeks ago had me scratching my head.
 
sinyde said:
BOL his week CB. Tailed you on all but 1. Can't break the rule. No play either way on Miami for me, but that line on appy at a few weeks ago had me scratching my head.
Click to expand...

Should be an interesting week. May see my first Heels play of the season coming up this week, we will see...
 
sinyde said:
BOL his week CB. Tailed you on all but 1. Can't break the rule. No play either way on Miami for me, but that line on appy at a few weeks ago had me scratching my head.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was one I completely missed as that was the first play this season I completely talked myself out of as I had it on my short list but then bought into the hype I was hearing around here locally leading up to the game. Big mistake on my part to let that one go without a play.
 
good luck on the bets. Know what is up with Woodson and why he didn't play and if he is playing this week?
 
clowncar said:
good luck on the bets. Know what is up with Woodson and why he didn't play and if he is playing this week?
Click to expand...

Below is what I found after the game on Saturday. There was also a tweet about his shoulder injury keeping him out when one of the Kent reporters saw him on the sidelines without pads. Apparently not serious but should know more mid-week. I am comfortable with Chapman in this one though as he made some silly mistakes this weekend but given his inexperience, that was to be expected. He has the talent to give the defense fits this weekend and my play was based on the assumption that he would be the starter. I actually wouldn't be surprised if both got some playing time on Saturday but we'll see...

Woodson sat out Saturday against Kent State, and Tra'Von Chapman started in his place. Further updates are sure to come, but Woodson seems likely to return to action next week against Miami of Ohio.
 
1 college extra play added at 5D...multiple hits needed to get all the plays in to total 1 unit, but not as much movement as normal since I am taking the dog vs the fav...

10/8/16 4:30pm College Extra Football 579 Mississippi Valley State +53½ -120* vs Montana[/B] - risking 0.96 to win 0.80 at 5D
10/8/16 4:30pm College Extra Football 579 Mississippi Valley State +52½ -120* vs Montana[/B] - risking 0.24 to win 0.20 at 5D
 
Adding a small ML dog play at 5D just because I see tremendous value at +625 on this one...

Risking 0.2 units at +625.

10/8/16 3:00pm College Football 354 Eastern Michigan +625* vs Toledo - risking 0.2 units
 
Caveat... I am horrible at totals...but I did take a bunch of Meteorology classes in college as at one time I thought about going the tv meteorologist route...yes, that is true. The local forecasts for the Piedmont are predicting a mess this weekend (my birthday weekend by the way) due to Matthew and all the signs point to a chilly, rainy day with high wind gusts. I am not going to overthink this one as I believe this total ends up closer to 53.5 by kickoff.

Added at BOL...
Football - 347 Virginia Tech/North Carolina under 59 -115 for Game
 
From Fedora's press conference...

Wil Elijah Hood be full-go on Saturday?
"I expect him to, yes."


Hood could play a vital role in this one, even moreso than usual, if the weather is as nasty as predicted, as we will need to be able to consistently run the ball in what could end up being a pretty ugly game that ultimately is won in the trenches and that is where Hood excels.
 
Just added another 1/2 unit on the under 59 at 5Dimes at 110. BOL just moved down to 57.5 but 5D still has 59 110 up for the moment...

10/8/16 3:30pm College Football 347 Virginia Tech/North Carolina Under 59 -110*
 
Not much of an update on Akron QB status but here is what I have found so far...


Coach Terry Bowden said during his news conference on Tuesday that Woodson, who threw on a very limited basis, has not been ruled out for Saturday’s game against Miami University.
 
My ODU -6.5 115 play has been canceled due to the game moving to Friday night at 8pm.

BOL now has a static line of 7 110 on the game, so gonna sit tight for now and see if I can get it at 6 or 6.5 before kickoff.
 
Removed ODU play from lineup since it was canceled by BOL due to the game being moved to Friday. No value in the current line of 8 as it crosses variance at that point. Would actually take UMass if the line jumped up to 10 by kickoff but I don't think that will happen.
 
Getting into Fondy territory with all these plays...better make sure I blow out the candles and make my birthday wish before the noon games kickoff tomorrow!
 
Locking horns with you on many of these so I have to wish you good health :shake2:
 
carolinablue said:
From Fedora's press conference...

Wil Elijah Hood be full-go on Saturday?
"I expect him to, yes."


Hood could play a vital role in this one, even moreso than usual, if the weather is as nasty as predicted, as we will need to be able to consistently run the ball in what could end up being a pretty ugly game that ultimately is won in the trenches and that is where Hood excels.
Click to expand...

Gonna be the Logan and Hood Show I'd imagine. Have a great b-day weekend and BoL.
 
Carolina Guy said:
Gonna be the Logan and Hood Show I'd imagine. Have a great b-day weekend and BoL.
Click to expand...

The official word is Hood is "questionable" but given how Fedora is regarding injuries, I fully expect him to play tomorrow.

Rain started here in Charlotte this morning and hasn't stopped. Chapel Hill is slated to start getting some later today and it is expected to continue non-stop through Saturday night as up to 4-5 inches total is being projected for the Hill based on the forecasts this afternoon. Still a lot of uncertainty around the weather, but establishing the running game will definitely be key. I also like our receivers against the VT DBs especially on a wet field as I wouldn't be surprised if we connect on a couple of long ones tomorrow. Hoping for a 31-7 type of game but a win is a win at this point, although 31-7 would help me cash both the side and total haha.
 
Surprised UMass line continuing to go up...do I dare reverse course on my original pick of ODU (before it was canceled) and go the other way and take UMass now that the line is DDs? Hmmm...
 
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