Carolinablue Week 5 College Football

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 4 = U G L Y you ain't got no alibi, you ugly, yeah yeah...you ugly!

Week 4 Recap - 5-7 -2.85 Units

Week 1 9-3 +5.60 Units
Week 2 10-2 +7.80 Units
Week 3 7-5-1 +1.15 Units
Week 4 5-7 -2.85 Units

Year to Date 31-17-1 +11.70 Units

Week 5

Friday Plays

7:30pm
106 Va Tech -2.5 120 vs Duke

Saturday Plays

12:00pm
120 Central Michigan/Western Michigan over 59 125

3:30pm
133 Akron vs UMass Over 63.5 115
155 Clemson at UNC Over 60 110
171 FAU -1 110 at Charlotte
175 Coastal at App Over 59.5 110
133 Akron TT Over 34.5 125
156 UNC TT Over 16.5 120
176 App TT Over 37.5 120

6:00pm
139 ULL -2.5 135 at Ga Southern
180 ODU -1.5 115 vs ECU
182 New Mexico/Liberty over 72 -125

7:00pm
191 UAB -1 110 at WKU

7:30pm
195 Ohio State at Nebraska Over 66.5 110

8:00pm
197 Houston -2 115 at UNT

10:30pm
150 Nevada -2.5 110 vs Hawaii
 
Last edited:
Little old school cheering, love it. I would venture to guess a few good cappers, like yourself, had trouble last week. Was hard to find things without forcing action.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Little old school cheering, love it. I would venture to guess a few good cappers, like yourself, had trouble last week. Was hard to find things without forcing action.
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Yeah, definitely plan to be a lot more selective and disciplined this week as Week 4 was a tough one, but can't complain too much as I have had my share of breaks so it was bound to even out at some point. The key is to stay consistent and focused and not let one bad week cause me to take my eye off the prize which is long-term profit generation. Weekly ups and downs will come, so just need to learn from last week and move forward from there. Best of luck this week!

CB
 
CB,
Yeah tuff week. But still impressively up YTD. Tuff week here also. Long way to go. Looking forward to a rebound week.
BOL this week.
 
Pretty damn good season despite last week. Just a bump in the road for the Stella Train ..
 
carolinablue said:
150 Nevada -2.5 110 vs Hawaii
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Glad to see you on this one, I hesitated yesterday but will probably add today. I’m a big fan of what they’re doing and what they’ve done the last couple years, but I think it sometimes clouds my objectivity and I’ve had some bad misses on them as well.
 
Totals came out late today by the way and I almost missed them as I was checking between 12-2 to no avail and then had to head out, but got lucky as I just happened to login and check again and they had just started posting at BOL.
 
They just took the UAB total off the board as it may have gotten hammered pretty good out of the gate (I didn't pay it much attention as it wasn't on my radar screen since I already have a play on the side)
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Think UNC can stay within 4 tds? UAB ML thoughts? Coastal Carolina chances SU with App St coming off an upset (not really)?
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I think that the Heels are fully capable of staying within the number and may put a scare into Clemson as anything could happen in Chapel Hill, but I also think they could lose by 40, so the spread is definitely a no play for me.

I like the over because Clemson should be good for at least 45-50 while we will put up 17-21 at a minimum, as even Charlotte put 10 on the board against that defense.

With regard to UAB, the line is currently at 3, so no value in a ML play to me, as I play based on variances so I wouldn’t play the spread in this one if I thought it was going to be a one possession game (I think UAB wins by 10). UAB will either win comfortably or lose SU, so that’s why I wouldn’t personally consider the ML.

Coastal is interesting because I wouldn’t be shocked if they won SU, but I won’t be putting any money on it as App should have a field day against that defense.

With that said, CC did make my short list at open which is saying a lot as I very rarely play dogs, but I wanted 18.5 and it didn’t get there and is now moving the other way. I see this one in the 70s so the Over was an easy call at open. Should be a fun one to watch.

Thanks for the questions! Hope my reply helped out at least a bit.

CB
 
Man that King transfer news hurts but hopefully Houston steps up in his absence. At least now I know why the line moved so much (from -2 110 to +2.5 120), as I couldn’t figure out why I was so far off on that one, but now it all makes sense.
 
CB,
LOL..Didn't mean to rub it in. Im on board with Houston, even with the backup QB.
Thanks for posting and best of luck this week.
 
carolinablue said:
Houston now at +2.5 110...guess it only matters if they win by 1 or lose by 1 or 2, but still painful when so much value is left on the table due to a wrong movement guess on my part
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You can't nail them all when you play the early openers...unless you're CK, of course:-).

You seem to get the majority of them correct so props to you.
 
AliShaheed said:
You can't nail them all when you play the early openers...unless you're CK, of course:).

You seem to get the majority of them correct so props to you.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the compliment, I appreciate it!

As far as the line move goes, yeah this was one of those crazy things that pretty much no one saw coming as I admit that I didn't expect King to sit for the rest of the year as I didn't even realize he was even considering it and apparently no one else knew either given the initial line move early from -2 to +2.5 as the news probably got out to a few. Once it spread like wildfire, then of course the line moved another 4 points to the 6 or wherever it is now. The only time stuff like this bugs me is if it factors into the final outcome, so we shall see come Saturday.
 
Looks like I may have one more play on the board if the line moves in my favor tomorrow as I am waiting to see if I can get a 2.5 at a reasonable price, but not sure if it is gonna happen or not..
 
Decided to bite the bullet and pay the 135 to get the -2.5 I wanted with ULL. I think this one hits 4 by kickoff, so figure I might as well take it now as I think this will be the cheapest I will be able to find -2.5.

139 ULL -2.5 135 at Ga Southern
 
carolinablue said:
I think that the Heels are fully capable of staying within the number and may put a scare into Clemson as anything could happen in Chapel Hill, but I also think they could lose by 40, so the spread is definitely a no play for me.

I like the over because Clemson should be good for at least 45-50 while we will put up 17-21 at a minimum, as even Charlotte put 10 on the board against that defense.

With regard to UAB, the line is currently at 3, so no value in a ML play to me, as I play based on variances so I wouldn’t play the spread in this one if I thought it was going to be a one possession game (I think UAB wins by 10). UAB will either win comfortably or lose SU, so that’s why I wouldn’t personally consider the ML.

Coastal is interesting because I wouldn’t be shocked if they won SU, but I won’t be putting any money on it as App should have a field day against that defense.

With that said, CC did make my short list at open which is saying a lot as I very rarely play dogs, but I wanted 18.5 and it didn’t get there and is now moving the other way. I see this one in the 70s so the Over was an easy call at open. Should be a fun one to watch.

Thanks for the questions! Hope my reply helped out at least a bit.

CB
Click to expand...
Yes sir! Thanks!
 
Just signed up at the Bo so I can take advantage of the early team totals there.

Added 3 Plays...

UNC TT Over 16.5 120
Akron TT Over 34.5 125
App TT Over 37.5 120

5x rollover as part of deal to collect the free max 250 (dropped in as cash instead of a separate free play), so not bad when you consider a lot of places throw out those 10x-20x rollovers which make it not worth it to collect the free cash. True test of course will be how they are when it comes time to withdraw the winnings at the end of the season.

CB
 
Have a break so messing around with formatting a bit. Feedback welcomed as I am trying to make it a bit more user friendly so that it is easier for everyone to read...

Week 5

Friday Plays

7:30pm
106 Va Tech -2.5 120 vs Duke

Saturday Plays

12:00pm
120 Central Michigan/Western Michigan over 59 125

3:30pm
133 Akron vs UMass Over 63.5 115
155 Clemson at UNC Over 60 110
171 FAU -1 110 at Charlotte
175 Coastal at App Over 59.5 110
133 Akron TT Over 34.5 125
156 UNC TT Over 16.5 120
176 App TT Over 37.5 120

6:00pm
139 ULL -2.5 135 at Ga Southern
180 ODU -1.5 115 vs ECU
182 New Mexico/Liberty over 72 -125

7:00pm
191 UAB -1 110 at WKU

7:30pm
195 Ohio State at Nebraska Over 66.5 110

8:00pm
197 Houston -2 115 at UNT

10:30pm
150 Nevada -2.5 110 vs Hawaii
 
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