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Carolinablue Week 5 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 4 Results = 12-8 +2.64 Units
Year to Date Results = 54-47-2 +0.31 Units
Back to back solid weeks to get back on the right side of things after that disastrous Week 2 performance
My Heels broke my heart yet again, but at least I didn't see any of it, as I probably would have sliced through the projector screen if I would have watched it on Saturday


Live from 30,000 feet in the air…

Week 5 Plays

Friday 1-1 -0.13 units
7:30pm UTSA/MTSU O62 112 (BM) - Decent value vs BOL line as I see both teams getting into the 30's in what should be a fun one to watch
11pm UNLV -16 113 (BOL) - Gonna keep riding the UNLV train, especially against that horrible Lobos offense

Saturday
12pm Georgia State/Army O57.5 110 (BM) - Similar to the UTSA game, this should be another fun one as both offenses should be able to pick apart the opp D
12pm Kentucky +7.5 125 BOL - I don't play a lot of dogs, but when I pick one it is because I think they have a solid shot of winning SU, so the points are a bonus

2pm Eastern Michigan -19.5 110 (BOL) - Can't believe I bet on UMass last week...now watch them win straight up against EMU

3:30pm North Carolina -7 141 (BM) - The Heels tend to come out strong after losing big ones like last week, so I expect them to completely destroy the Hokies and get everyone's hopes up about a possible Coastal title
3:30pm North Carolina TT O33.5 121 (MB) - Gonna keep riding these overs as well. If I was smart I would just play both team total overs, but I can't root for opp pts
3:30pm VT/UNC O49.5 119 (BM) - Too much value in this low number, even with the forecasted rain
3:30pm Alabama -15 120 (BOL) - Would have played this up to 17, so was an auto play for me
3:30pm Alabama 1H -9.5 110 (MB) - Pure value play as any time I can get Bama 1H under 10, pretty much an auto play
3:30pm Alabama 1Q -4 123 (MB) - Worse case scenario feels like a push
3:30pm Bama game 1Q O13.5/14
3:30pm Iowa State -2.5 135 (BM) - Not sold on Kansas yet
3:30pm Ohio State TT O49.5 114 (MB) - Would be surprised if they don't get at least 52
3:30pm Ohio +11.5 110 (BOL) - see above

4pm Georgia Southern +11.5 130 (BOL) - weather should help GSU in what should be a competitive back and forth game
5pm ULL +10 135 (BOL) - waited too long here as I would have preferred 11 at this price, but again, would not be surprised if ULL wins SU
5pm Syracuse/Wagner O59.5 120 (BOL) - one of those plays where I am not expecting any help from Wagner at all as Cuse should hit 60 even with backups in 2H
6pm Liberty ML 125 (BOL) - Decent value after that mess vs Akron

7:30pm Indiana +3.5 111 (BOL) - I think IU wins SU so getting 3.5 was a no brainer
7:30pm Georgia -27 120 (BM) - After that performance vs Kent, Missouri is just gonna be in the wrong place at the wrong time as UGA might win by 40+...at least
7:30pm Georgia 1Q -7 128 (MB) - As long as UGA doesn't turn it over, they should get at least 10 while Mizzou will be lucky to score...worst case push at 7-0 after 1
8pm New Mexico State -13.5 129 (BM) - Can't believe I am laying this many with this team, but man FIU is flat out awful
8pm Pittsburgh -19.5 120 (BM) - Not sure Ga Tech will be able to put up more than 13-17 in this one, while Pitt should be able to name their score
 
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Great looking card, lean the same on a bunch.

You'll be feeling the wrath of Teapot for that Kansas fade...

GL, hope the getaway was great.
 
number2 said:
@carolinablue ……should UNC games be auto Over play? Your team can put up points and defense is not that great me think.
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I would...I just don't like having to root for points from the opposing side, so out of principal I just lay off the game total overs usually, but every once in a while I will play em if I think it will be a true shootout situation but we are clearly the better team. These days I have been sticking to the UNC team total overs.

Decent amount of rain is expected this weekend here in the Carolinas, but I don't think it will make a difference as we should be good for at least 35 even in the weather. Just hate getting a bad number but hopefully it won't matter. Best of luck this weekend man!
 
carolinablue said:
Added

Alabama 1H -9.5 110 (MB)
Liberty ML 125 (BOL)
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Might have to reload at MB…..their bonuses sucks…..

BM is so slow with their lines….but can’t complain as they let you RR TT…..

Liking that Alabama 1H……what’s the over for 1H in Alabama game?
 
number2 said:
Might have to reload at MB…..their bonuses sucks…..

BM is so slow with their lines….but can’t complain as they let you RR TT…..

Liking that Alabama 1H……what’s the over for 1H in Alabama game?
Click to expand...
1H is sitting at 31 110
1Q is at -4 123 and 13.5 136

Actually like the 1Q over more than the 1H, but don't want to be that heavy on this one as I would be more likely if it was at home
 
May end up on the game over in Chapel Hill if the line keeps dropping as unfortunately Va Tech should probably be good for 200 on the ground against our D.
 
3:30pm VT/UNC O49.5 119 (BM)

Just can't pass up this one given the low number, as even with the forecasted rain and the Hokies horrible offense, I just can't trust our defense to not give us at least 20 and I am confident we will hit mid 30's no problem.
 
carolinablue said:
Decent amount of rain is expected this weekend here in the Carolinas, but I don't think it will make a difference as we should be good for at least 35 even in the weather. Just hate getting a bad number but hopefully it won't matter. Best of luck this weekend man!
Click to expand...
Weather is going to be a huge factor in the Southeast this weekend with the hurricane expected to make landfall on Friday but it's hard to figure out where. Regardless it will be a large area and more than simply light showers. Hard to figure that out this early.
 
KJ said:
Weather is going to be a huge factor in the Southeast this weekend with the hurricane expected to make landfall on Friday but it's hard to figure out where. Regardless it will be a large area and more than simply light showers. Hard to figure that out this early.
Click to expand...
Yep...expecting at least a couple inches over the weekend, but again, don't think it will make a difference in that one. Definitely agree that it is something to keep an eye on for most of the games in the path this weekend.
 
carolinablue said:
1H is sitting at 31 110
1Q is at -4 123 and 13.5 136

Actually like the 1Q over more than the 1H, but don't want to be that heavy on this one as I would be more likely if it was at home
Click to expand...

Been playing 1q overs too…..kinda semi hedge Alabama 1q play…..works out last week as I got push ats and hit the over……

Hopefully BM and BOL have -4……feeling it might be -4.5
 
number2 said:
Been playing 1q overs too…..kinda semi hedge Alabama 1q play…..works out last week as I got push ats and hit the over……

Hopefully BM and BOL have -4……feeling it might be -4.5
Click to expand...
Yeah that s a good idea as I was riding that train for a while the last couple of years but haven’t done a good job keeping up with it this year as BOL and BM team totals, quarters and such just weren’t getting out there when I was around to play em. Added MB to the mix two weeks ago so gonna start up again. Gonna check that first quarter total now.
 
Added Bama/Arky 1Q O13.5 136 to win 0.762

MB isn’t funded like the other 2 so not a full unit in this one yet. Will hopefully get a chance to round it out once the other books post.
 
Heels kickoff specialist to transfer…

"We did have a surprise yesterday," Brown said on Monday in the Kenan Football Center. "Jonathan Kim came in and said he wanted to be the starting field goal kicker and he's not because Noah Burnett has done a real good job. And Jonathan wants to transfer so he has a chance to kick somewhere else. So we'll let Noah Burnette do our kickoffs.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
Hey CB
I don't use my bookie, but they have team totals out already? That alone is reason enough to move some funds over there.
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Yeah, they had em out on Sunday night by the time I got home from the airport if I am not mistaken, as I posted the UNC TT over right after I played it (line is about 3 points lower now, but oh well). I also like that they get all the quarter and half numbers out there by Monday, so I can get everything in before things get busy for me Wed-Fri.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, they had em out on Sunday night by the time I got home from the airport if I am not mistaken, as I posted the UNC TT over right after I played it (line is about 3 points lower now, but oh well). I also like that they get all the quarter and half numbers out there by Monday, so I can get everything in before things get busy for me Wed-Fri.
Click to expand...
Damn Ceasars have Alabama 1q at -5.5 and o/u 14…….1H at -10 31……their 1q lines come out on Tuesdays……

Gonna grab some Georgia 1q at -7 and over 13

Been hitting my Alabama plays at Ceasars since they come out earlier than BOL & BM

MB……gonna reload there after this week even though their reload bonus only at like 20-25%…..
 
number2 said:
Damn Ceasars have Alabama 1q at -5.5 and o/u 14…….1H at -10 31……their 1q lines come out on Tuesdays……

Gonna grab some Georgia 1q at -7 and over 13

Been hitting my Alabama plays at Ceasars since they come out earlier than BOL & BM

MB……gonna reload there after this week even though their reload bonus only at like 20-25%…..
Click to expand...
I like that UGA 1Q over and of course the Bama ones I got. Wish we could do the mainstream online here in NC but as of now still a no go unfortunately.
 
carolinablue said:
I like that UGA 1Q over and of course the Bama ones I got. Wish we could do the mainstream online here in NC but as of now still a no go unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Gonna try fanduel with their $1000 free bet just like ceasars…….only bad thing is that any wager wins over $600 needs to be tax I think…..like the state lottery……I used the Ceasars free bet promo to win $800…..but lost it all in week 1&2…..I’m an action junkie…..hahaha…..no discipline……been breaking even so far this CFB season…..
 
number2 said:
Gonna try fanduel with their $1000 free bet just like ceasars…….only bad thing is that any wager wins over $600 needs to be tax I think…..like the state lottery……I used the Ceasars free bet promo to win $800…..but lost it all in week 1&2…..I’m an action junkie…..hahaha…..no discipline……been breaking even so far this CFB season…..
Click to expand...
Shouldn't be that way as far as taxes. The tax system takes into account the odds it takes to accumulate their set amount which is why if you play $1000/hand blackjack you aren't paying taxes on every winning hand.
 
KJ said:
Shouldn't be that way as far as taxes. The tax system takes into account the odds it takes to accumulate their set amount which is why if you play $1000/hand blackjack you aren't paying taxes on every winning hand.
Click to expand...
With the state lottery, anything over $600 needs to be claimed at lottery office, they give you W-2….

My uncle hit win4 for $5k like 20 years ago…..he didn’t file and got lucky cause IRS wasn’t on his azz….

Now with online sports books, I’m not sure…….so I’ll try to keep it under $600…..but my 12-15 play parlays I don’t mind getting taxed on……
 
number2 said:
With the state lottery, anything over $600 needs to be claimed at lottery office, they give you W-2….

My uncle hit win4 for $5k like 20 years ago…..he didn’t file and got lucky cause IRS wasn’t on his azz….

Now with online sports books, I’m not sure…….so I’ll try to keep it under $600…..but my 12-15 play parlays I don’t mind getting taxed on……
Click to expand...
Lottery odds aren't a comparison to odds on sports betting. Kinda what I was getting at.
 
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