Carolinablue Week 5 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Home sweet home...vacations are always great, but there is something about being back home that never gets old...

Week 4 went pretty well as I ended up 5-2 +2.174 units on the day. CMU loss cost me 1.35 due to the buy and only picked up a little more than half a unit on the Houston Baptist win due to the 5D limits.

Year to Date 25-15 +8.064 units

Locked in 2 plays while waiting to get off the plane. Looks like I was smart to get these two early. Didn't see anything else I liked, so may be a light card in Week 5.


BOL to win 1 unit
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 146 Ball State +3½ -115 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 106 Houston -23½ -110 for GAME
Football - 115 Memphis +14½ -110 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 153 Akron -6½ -125 buying -½ for GAME
Football - 117 Tulane -2½ -110 for Game

Added at 5D...to win 1 unit
10/1/16 2:30pm College Football 149 Ohio -135* vs Miami Ohio

Added at 5D....to win 0.4 units
10/1/16 7:30pm College Football 225 Incarnate Word +18½ -120* vs Texas State

Added at 5D....to win 0.4 units
10/1/16 7:30pm College Football 225 Incarnate Word +17½ -120* vs Texas State

Added at 5D...to win 0.2 units
10/1/16 7:30pm College Football 225 Incarnate Word +15½ -120* vs Texas State

Last 2 Free Plays at BOL
Buffalo +625
Memphis +475
 
Last edited:
Would take Houston up to 27.5 and Ball State at anything less than -2.5 so would definitely play at current lines as an fyi.

Missed on Buffalo as I saw it at 21.5 but wanted to get the other 2 plays in and now I see it is 17.5 so not as much value there IMO although I wouldn't be shocked if they won SU, but could just as easily lose by 3 TDs as I can't figure that team out at all.
 
Was hoping for 14.5 with my Heels but only saw 12.5 with it now at 11.5. Not sure if 14.5 was ever out there or not by the time I got down to that part of the card. Will be a no play for me at the current number but if it somehow gets to 3 scores, I will be on it.
 
Added at 5D...

10/1/16 2:30pm College Football 149 Ohio -135* vs Miami Ohio

Miami Ohio has lost 21 of last 22 SU as an underdog, so going with the Bobcats SU in what should be a competitive matchup.
 
Added at 5D....to win 0.4 units

10/1/16 7:30pm College Football 225 Incarnate Word +18½ -120* vs Texas State
 
Added at 5D to win 0.2 units...

10/1/16 7:30pm College Football 225 Incarnate Word +15½ -120* vs Texas State
 
Really like Incarnate Word to potentially win this one SU as I wouldn't trust that Bobcat defense laying more than 2 scores, so fine with that one at anything over 14 as it should be a high scoring game that could come down to the last possession.
 
Carolina.... thoughts on the gm in Tallahassee sat, can UNC cover that #? My die hard fsu buddies think UNC wins straight up. (Could be the reverse psychology move though)
 
ProV1Colt said:
Carolina.... thoughts on the gm in Tallahassee sat, can UNC cover that #? My die hard fsu buddies think UNC wins straight up. (Could be the reverse psychology move though)
Click to expand...

I really was hoping for 14.5 in that one so it is a pass for me at the current 11/12 number I am seeing. I should have actually have more time tomorrow to share some thoughts on this one here in the thread but for now I will say that I wouldn't be shocked if we won SU in a shootout along the lines of 38-35, but also wouldn't be shocked if we lost by 17+ like 41-24 and gave up 300 yards rushing. If I didn't suck so much at totals, I would probably just play the over in this one but I am smart enough to know my strengths and more importantly my weaknesses!
 
Good article on IC about the upcoming game vs FSU...

UNC Seeks Defining Upset over FSU
Greg Barnes
GREG BARNES
Yesterday at 4:29 PM
UNC has lost 22 of its last 25 games against AP Top-25 opponents on the road.

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – No. 23 North Carolina travels to Tallahassee this weekend with hopes of securing the program’s most significant road win in 20 years.
On Sept. 7, 1996, the Tar Heels defeated Donovan McNabb and No. 9 Syracuse, 27-10, at the Carrier Dome. UNC is 2-22 against AP Top-25 opponents on the road since then, and neither of those teams were ranked as high as No. 12 Florida State.

It’s a daunting challenge for a UNC team coming off an emotional last-second ACC-opening win over Pittsburgh, although the odds have dramatically improved over the past month. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tar Heels a 19.6 percent chance of winning, which has inched up in recent weeks.

The reason? The stout Florida State defense that so many prognosticators forecasted has yet to arrive. The Seminoles rank 108th in scoring defense (35.0), 99th in rushing defense (205.8), 86th in total defense (413.5) and T-121st in yards per play allowed (6.8). Those numbers make UNC’s defensive struggles look average by comparison. The Tar Heels rank 84th in scoring defense (30.0), 118th in rushing defense (240.3), 90th in total defense (424.8) and 83rd in yards per play allowed (5.6).

A more nuanced look, however, illustrates the difference in offensive firepower both defenses encountered in September. Florida State held all four of its opponents – Ole Miss, Charleston Southern, Louisville and South Florida – below their season averages for points and total yards, while holding all but South Florida at least a full yard below their yards-per-play average. UNC, on the other hand, has held only two of its four opponents below their season averages in points, total yards and yards per play. Pitt matched its season average in points with 36 at Kenan Stadium on Saturday.

Regardless, those defensive woes likely have both offenses salivating. FSU is averaging 43.0 points per game, slightly ahead of UNC’s 41.3 points-per-game mark.
UNC is also currently an 11-point underdog, and its last road win as a double-digit dog, oddly enough, was at Florida State in 2010. The Tar Heels have won four games as a road or neutral dog under Larry Fedora, and have been competitive in 10 losses, losing by an average of 9.4 points per game.

Fedora, who is 2-8 against AP Top-25 opponents as UNC’s head coach, remains in search of a signature win during his five-year tenure in Chapel Hill. Despite an 11-game winning streak in 2015 en route to a Coastal Division title, media pundits dismissed the remarkable run by questioning the strength of schedule.
With Florida State up next, those questions will be answered far earlier this season.

“This year we’ve got Florida State this week and we go into a stretch of games where people are ranked and have a bunch of momentum,” junior wide receiver Austin Proehl said. “I think that’s huge for us. It makes everybody on this team have to step up and really realize what’s in front of us and what we have to do to win big games.”
One lingering for the Tar Heels is their inability to secure a program-defining win on a big stage. UNC has faltered in its season openers the past two years against inferior SEC opponents, and is 11-26-1 all-time in games in which both teams are ranked.
 
ATS Soundbite from the above article...

UNC is also currently an 11-point underdog, and its last road win as a double-digit dog, oddly enough, was at Florida State in 2010.

The Tar Heels have won four games as a road or neutral dog under Larry Fedora, and have been competitive in 10 losses, losing by an average of 9.4 points per game.
 
Added another at BOL...

Mobile - FOOTBALL - 153 Akron -6½ -125 buying -½ for GAME

Not worried about the road game or rivalry aspect of this one as basically this is a play acknowledging how horrible the Zips are on defense but my numbers tell me that Akron should be able to put up 38 to 41 in this one, so this play comes down to the fact of Kent not having enough to keep up to put things as simple as possible. Kent will very likely put up more points in this one than any other game this season, but I have them still not being able to stay within 7 of Akron.
 
Added at BOL...


Football - 117 Tulane -2½ -110 for Game

Tulane +7 vs UMass -3 when it comes to turnovers coupled with the fact that Tulane should be able to run the ball pretty effectively in this one leading to some decent looks downfield by the redshirt soph Guilette who was named starter by Fritz earlier this week. UMass coming off an emotional game vs MSU, prone to turning the ball over and very inconsistent to say the least, I will take my chances with Tulane as I expect them to win by 10+ to spoil homecoming at McGuirk.
 
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