Carolinablue Week 4 Confirmed Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
OKLAHOMA -19.5 110 (AT 5 DIMES)
FAU -5.5 120 (AT THE GREEK)
INDIANA +3.5 120 (AT THE GREEK)
BAYLOR -3.5 120 (AT 5 DIMES)
TEXAS TECH -3 120 (AT THE GREEK) - added Monday 8pm
OKLAHOMA/TULSA OVER 14 1Q 125 (GREEK) - added Friday 620pm

Waiting to see whether there is any value in the Texas Tech and OU totals, and also waiting to see where the Tech line opens at since it is off the board currently.

Best of luck to everyone in week 4. Will have a few thoughts on these plays a little later when I get a sec.

--------------//-------------------
Week 1 --> 5-6-1 -1.56 units
Week 2 --> 9-2 +6.7 units
Week 3 --> 5-1 +3.8 units

19-9-1 Year to Date +8.94 units

As noted in a previous thread, last week I upped my unit size by 50% because I felt I had a really good grasp on things after week 2, so needless to say the timing was pretty nice since I followed up the unit increase with a 5-1 week.

With the new unit size, week 3 actually comes out to +5.7 units (5 wins = 7.5, 1 loss = -1.8 (was -120) ), but for the sake of simplicity, I will just keep calculating using the basic "to win 1 unit" formula if that is cool with everyone.
 
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GL this week Carolina. Keep up the great work. Already on Oklahoma myself. Hope you hit em all
 
CB, congrats on a great season thus far. On Oklahoma with you, lean toward Indiana as well.

Are you at all worried that FAU will struggle some against NT's new spread offense?

GL this week.
 
Dmoney416 said:
CB, congrats on a great season thus far. On Oklahoma with you, lean toward Indiana as well.

Are you at all worried that FAU will struggle some against NT's new spread offense?

GL this week.
Click to expand...

FAU -5.5 Thoughts

Great question. I would be worried if NT had any semblance of a rushing game whatsoever, but they don't, and I usually like my chances against one dimensional teams because it allows average defenses to focus their efforts against one thing vs having to worry about multiple looks.

North Texas is #118 in rushing offense, so needless to say they will live and die by the pass in this one. The biggest issue for them is defense not offense IMO, as they are #104 in rushing defense, #117 in sacks and #119 in total defense (yeah I know the OU game skews the numbers a bit, but you guys get the point). Another issue for NT is the fact that they get no pressure on the QB at all, as they are also #117 in total sacks.

I like the fact that FAU has a somewhat decent running game to compliment their top 30 passing attack, as that balance will allow them to use the run to set up the pass as the old saying goes. I also like the fact that FAU is one of the top teams in the country when it comes to turnover margin, and I expect that to be a huge difference maker against a young Mean Green team.

FAU is the real deal in the Sunbelt as things are starting to come together for them, and they view this year as their year to win the conference, and I don't see them stumbling in a game they have to win to keep their positive momentum going as they continue their march towards a bowl game.
 
Baylor -3.5 Thoughts

I will keep this one relatively simple as for me this game comes down to the fact that Buffalo has yet to play a team with a strong passing game, and they still are one of the worst teams against the pass in the country after three games. They also are in the bottom 25th percentile when it comes to sacks allowed, and I expect the Baylor defense to put pressure on their QB early and often as they are one of the top 30 teams in the country when it comes to getting to the QB and tackles for loss in the backfield. I expect Buffalo to score some points in this one, but in the end, they won't be able to keep up with the Baylor Bears' #8 passing attack in the country as I see Baylor just outscoring them in this one.
 
Indiana +3.5 Thoughts

As you guys know, I very rarely play any dogs at all, but hey whatever works right? Anyway, Indiana and Illinois are basically mirror images of each other, as both have an athletic QB who makes things happen both with his arms and his legs, and both teams are viewing this game as a must win as they jockey for position in the Big Ten race. Both teams have top 10 running games, can put up a lot of points, and have strong rushing defenses, so what do you do in a game like this that seems like a coin flip. Well for me, I take the home team who is #6 in turnover margin, #1 in QB sacks, and #6 in protecting the QB, against the team who is #97 in turnover margin, because in the end I think turnovers will be the difference in this one. Oh yeah, I also get 3.5 points in a game that will probably come down to a FG either way. I will take my chances in this situation any day of the week.
 
Oklahoma -19.5 Thoughts

This one is basically a play on the hot team who knows they have to blow out every single one of their opponents if they have any shot at cracking that top 2, against a team that is in the bottom 10 in the country vs the pass and in the bottom 30 in the country against the run. The whole outscoring your opponent may work many times for Tulsa this year, but not against the top 15 defense of the Sooners it won't. Add to that the fact that OU has 8 takeaways on the year and I predict a long night for Tulsa, as the early adrenaline will soon evaporate along with Tulsa's dreams.
 
i like oklahooma as well, i got it @ -20 though. I like your reasoning about what htey have to do to crack #2. Another thing to add to that is that they need to score in bunches b/c florida isn't going to stop scoring 40 a game any time soon.

GL on the plays.

CB, for the life of me i can't figure out the Georgia Tech line. They are favored by 7 against boston college then they play virginia and they are favored by 3.5? what gives?
 
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hopefully since we have 3 plays in common, it will resemble March Madness instead of what I have been doing recently. I might be MUSH and I would hate to pass my bad luck onto some of the game you played.
 
CB - Like your thoughts on FAU this week. That team has caught my eye so far. BOL this week.
 
Good start to the year CB, really like the write ups. I'm with you on all these plus I have Purdue -13.5
 
Thanks for all the words guys. Still a long way to go in the season, but it is always nice to get off to a good start as we have kept the momentum going since that insane run during cbb where hopefully we all made a ton of profit along the way. Keep the comments and insights coming, that is what makes this place so great, and also why you won't see me posting anywhere else but here!
 
Baylor is now down to 3.5 110 at 5 dimes by the way, so you can save yourself a little money if you are looking to jump on Baylor (It is 4 at the greek).
 
Texas Tech line now -6.5, wow, glad I jumped on it when it was released!

FG - I am gonna lay off the MSU play as I am a little wary of laying DD with most teams on the road unless they are top 20 calibre, and I am not convinced that MSU is at that level right now.
 
Awefully frustrated that Pinny does not list these plays that you add late.
You obviously have had good experiences with both 5 Dimes and Greek??

GLTU
 
CB- great work so far. I think Illinois is better but I see your reasoning for taking home dog with points. I kinda tend to go against undfeated teams at this point.
Like your call on Schnellenberger U. I'll be there.
GL
 
Question about Baylor/Buff. Buff QB made great decisions against PSU. They have no running game at all and all of their points came against 2nd team PSU guys in the secondary, but can Baylor stop the pass?

BOL this week. CB: been a lurker here and always follow your posts. Keep up the great work.
 
hullabelew said:
Question about Baylor/Buff. Buff QB made great decisions against PSU. They have no running game at all and all of their points came against 2nd team PSU guys in the secondary, but can Baylor stop the pass?

BOL this week. CB: been a lurker here and always follow your posts. Keep up the great work.
Click to expand...


Honest answer is no they can't haha. That's why I am predicting Baylor to outscore them on Saturday. This won't be a cakewalk by any means, but I think the Bears have more weapons and can put more points on the board, because at least they have some semblance of a balanced attack on both sides of the ball, which is more than I can say for Buffalo. Would actually be an interesting game to watch in my opinion, but unfortunately I am outta town from Sat morning till Sunday night, so I won't get to catch any games this weekend.
 
Big Wave said:
Awefully frustrated that Pinny does not list these plays that you add late.
You obviously have had good experiences with both 5 Dimes and Greek??

GLTU
Click to expand...


I have been with The Greek forever and I have never had one issue with them, as I always get my withdrawals within 2 days with no hassles and they are pretty consistent with getting lines up each Sunday around 630pm each week.

I am new to 5dimes, and honestly the only reason I am with them is because they have the lines on 1-AA games that no one else has, plus they are reliable from a reputation standpoint, so I am not worried about my money when it is there (or when I am ready to withdraw). They are later than I would like with their cfb lines, but at least they get them out on Sunday evening (about a couple hours after The Greek usually) and again, I know I will get paid quickly with these guys.

Hope that helps.

ps I used to have Pinny and The Greek as my 2 books before everything went down with Pinny.
 
MSU now down to 12.5 for all those waiting on the Spartans. May be some solid value in that line if it keeps dropping as money keeps coming in on the Irish. Hope no one jumped too soon, so that you can get under those key numbers of 13 and 14. I might be interested at 9.5, but anything higher and it stays a no play for me.
 
CB, I want Fla Atl @ -5.5 or -6, but I don't think it is changing from -6.5. Do you think -6.5 is still a good line for Fla Atl, or should I wait this one out hoping for it to drop?
 
OK now at -23 as we get close to kickoff, although I have seen -22.5 in some places. Here's hoping they care enough to cover.
 
Blue_Chip said:
CB, I want Fla Atl @ -5.5 or -6, but I don't think it is changing from -6.5. Do you think -6.5 is still a good line for Fla Atl, or should I wait this one out hoping for it to drop?
Click to expand...

I think 6.5 is still a solid line, but I would feel more comfortable with 6 or less to be honest. Best of luck this week. Glad I could help out last week.
 
askias said:
OK now at -23 as we get close to kickoff, although I have seen -22.5 in some places. Here's hoping they care enough to cover.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I am glad I jumped on this one when it was still under 20, as I like 19.5 a lot better than 23. I am not a big fan of laying over 3 TDs on the road against a halfway decent team that likes to air it out, because they could get a backdoor score late and make it something like 38-17 or whatever in garbage time. When you are dealing with a spread that requires 4 scores the likelihood of that happening just gets out of my comfort zone.
 
Thanks Steed, appreciate the words. Can't believe I am gonna miss an entire Saturday of football, but hopefully I will come back to a clean sweep on Sunday night. Best of luck this weekend! At least I will be around to catch the Sooners game tonight...
 
ADDED
OKLAHOMA/TULSA OVER 14 1ST QUARTER TOTAL

Had this one marked down in my notes, but I forgot all about it till I someone sent me an email asking me if I played it already or not, so thanks to who gave me that reminder as I completely forgot to play it, and as a result got stuck with 125 but oh well that's life. The reason I had this one marked is because just like the USC 1Q totals that I have played around with, the way I figure, worst case scenario is a push so it is worth a shot to be up one unit early on the weekend.

Both of these teams strike fast as neither has had a 1Q with less than 14 combined this year, and both teams average about 5.5 plays per drive in the first, so I look for at least 2 TDs, if not 3 in the first 15mins of play. Plays like this are not for the faint of heart of course as many times it comes down to field position and time, so guess we'll see what happens tonight.
 
Quote from Tulsa head coach Todd Graham...(This is why I like my chances on the 1Q over by the way, as field position is one of the biggest factors in determining whether or not the over hits in the first, as I note above)...

"We gave up 27 points in the second quarter and nine-tenths of that had to do with field position and the poor job we did on kickoffs.


About half of that has to do where we kick the ball. If we have deep right, we kick it left. If we have deep left, we kick it right. We've got to get those things corrected because I can tell you that this week we're playing a team that's very, very sound in the kicking game. They have great coverage teams.

The biggest thing I've seen as a football team is we need to get better on special teams with our kickoff coverage. We didn't do a good job with our kickoff return, like we did our first game. These guys this week are going to get down there a little bit faster. We have to do a better job there.
If we can improve and go out and be even in the kicking game, that gives us a chance."
 
Updated Record 21-9 Year to Date Posted

Nice 2-0 start to the week as both the 1st Quarter total and OU spread hit on Friday to give me some strong momentum heading into the weekend.

About to drive to Michigan in another 1/2 hour, so won't be around today, but gonna do my best to get home by 6pm tomorrow night so I can catch those week 5 opens.

Best of luck today guys!
 
Week 4 resulted in yet another profitable week as I ended up 4-2 on the weekend.

Year to Date Confirmed Record 23-11 +10.54 units (67.6%)

Brought my record on Road Favs to 11-3, so gonna keep an eye out for these in week 5

Also, totals record now 3-0, so gonna watch out for these as well.



Week 4 Recap...

Wins
OU
FAU
OU/TULSA 1Q OVER
BAYLOR

Losses
Texas Tech
Indiana
 
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