Carolinablue Week 2 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
All plays at The Greek risking 1.1 to win 1.0 unless otherwise noted...

RUTGERS -13.5
WVU -24.5
TEMPLE -2.5 120
UNC +4
OHIO -1
FRESNO +18
PSU -15.5
HAWAII -27.5
MIZZOU -5.5 (played this one at 5 Dimes since the Greek has -6)
ALABAMA -2.5 120 (bought 1/2 at 5 Dimes since they have it at -3)
VILLE/MTSU O57 120 (worst case 47-10 and a push, best case, Ville covers the number on their own, something like 59-10, either way you know they will keep trying to score kinda like Texas Tech does)

A couple plays at the ridiculously low "win $50.00" limit at 5dimes:
NW STATE -4
TN MARTIN -4

Will include a few thoughts tonight and continue the discussion in the morning. If you have any questions about why I am on a play (or why I am not on any other plays that are popular across the board), let me know.
 
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interesting card cb. like it mostly. keep up the good capping. looks liek another week where i wont have money against notre dame and regret it by sunday morning
 
HAWAI'I -27.5

I know, I know, Hawai'i doesn't play as well on the mainland as they do on the island (remember they did win at Fresno by 31 a couple years back though), and the last time they played in Ruston, they were soundly defeated by 30+. Got all that, and that is why I think this line is ONLY 27.5, vs 35 or so, which is weird I believe it should be based on talent differential in this one. Colt Brennan is on a mission this year, and this La Tech defense does not have the ability to stop him, and they surrendered 28 first downs and almost 300yds passing to a Central Arkansas squad that lost their top 2 receivers from last year and only return 6 overall on the offense.

La Tech only won the game 28-7, which doesn't bode well for their offense, since CAU only has 2 guys back from last year's team on the defensive side of the ball. The fact that LT is breaking in a new coach and OC showed big time, as La Tech only managed about 70 yds in the air and if it weren't for 6 CAU turnovers, this one would have been much closer on the scoreboard.

I believe that Hawai'i will be mentally prepared for this one as they will be reminded of the fact that they got blown out the last time they came into town, so you better believe they will be looking for revenge in this spot. I look for Hawai'i to be good for 52+ while La Tech will struggle to get to 21 in this one as their offense will take a while to gel. Definitely nice value in this line in my opinion, so give me Hawai'i laying 4TDs as they know the only way they move up the polls is to decimate everyone in their path and then some.
 
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Won't bother writing up the mainstream plays, but will post some thoughts about Ohio -1, Fresno +18, and UNC +4 tomorrow since no one has mentioned those at all tonight.
 
Not going to hear me arguing either. I'm just trying to get enough balls to play Temple, but I think they're the right side.
 
Fresno may be a good play. The Ags defensive stats can be a bit deceiving from Saturday. As a running team , they actually had no sustained drives. Somewhat surprising. They either 3 and out, or had the ball for all of 3 minutes+. Scored all 5 times inside Montana St. 40 w/4 tds and 1 fg.
Mstate had the ball 36 minutes. The quick possessions put a lot of pressure on a fragile defense.
Good luck on that. I just want my Ags to win.

Press
 
GL Carolina. On PSU, Rutgers, and West Virginia. Looking hard at Mizzou but havent decided yet. Hope you have a successfull week
 
carolinablue said:
All plays at The Greek risking 1.1 to win 1.0 unless otherwise noted...

RUTGERS -13.5: on it and agree
WVU -24.5: will be on it and agree
TEMPLE -2.5 120: will be on it and agree
UNC +4: no opinion here
OHIO -1: I was actually leaning ULL. That rushing attack is a pain in the ass to stop.
FRESNO +18: I like this dog and I am heavily considering it myself
PSU -15.5: on it and agree
HAWAII -27.5: likely will be on it
MIZZOU -5.5: I really like this game.
Click to expand...

Your plays, outside of the Ohio game which I am 99% sure I won't touch, are all games that I am on or have strong leans too. Looking forward to discussing plays this week. GL
 
as a Buffalo Alum and someone who follows them (sad, but true) Temple may be the best play on the board next weekend. GL:cheers:
 
Ouch, I love La Tech...may the best man win on that one.

Looks like I'll be with you on Temple. Not really considering anything else...
 
Whoa, I'm with you on WVU, Penn State, Rutgers, and Temple definitely. I'm also a strong lean on Mizzou but I really feel like that line will fall a little in my favor. I hope it doesn't bite me in the ass later in the week. I'm also a strong lean on Hawaii and hoping I can get it at that number at Matchbook. Less than 4TDs and I'm locked in. There's no way La Tech keeps Hawaii under 56 IMO. Good luck man
 
Blue, would love to hear some of your thoughts on the Ohio game. I live close to the heart of Mac country, hell Marshall used to be in the MAC, but I don't follow any of those teams at all.

I like your card, with the exception of Fresno and UNC, which I simply have no opinion on.

THat Missouri game, I would only find myself on that side, but I am having a hard time getting down on it right now. They way they played in the second half of the Illni game concerns me. Yes Mizzou was up, and with Juice hurt, the Illinois backup came in and maybe they underestimated him.

Like I said, I am not considering anything other than Missouri, I just am having a hard time betting it at this point.
 
Find it really interesting that Oregon is now all the way up to 8.5 at 5dimes. Hope those of you who wanted Oregon had the patience to wait as 8.5 is definitely a lot better than 6.5 or 7. Also hope that those of you who liked Michigan got it at 6.

WVU down to 23.5 at The Greek, kinda surprised by that to be honest as I thought I got a deal at 24.5 but guess not, oh well.

At least PSU is now up to 17 and 18 at most places so I got some value at 15.5, although I still give major credit to those of you smart enough to lock it in at 11.5 to 13.5.
 
Those are weird line movements on WVU and Michigan.

Woulda thought that WVU would stay over 24 since it got bet up quickly.

The money on Michigan might be because Oregon allowed over 200 yards rushing to Houston and figure that Hart has a helluva day.

The over might be the better play since both D's look like they have major issues.
 
maybe chalk the WVU line up to the home dog players. If I was not entrenched in the thick of this one sided rivalry, I suppose one could argue there is a look ahead, sort of for WVU.

When Maryland had Scott McBrien, they did have our number a bit. If y'all remember, he wasn't good enough, or simply didn't want to stay here and be a backup. But I highly doubt you will get much out of the lookahead angle since Maryland is not going to be as good as in years past. They will be on a short week heading into that one.

Maybe one could argue that this is such a huge rivalry, that that is way too many points. Hell, the marshall hoop team has twice won outright in CHarleston as DD DOgs in the last couple years! But those teams, at least on paper are much closer in talent levels that the football squads are.

This game does a lot of good things for the respective cities when one hosts. Revenue generated in huntington establishments for this one contest alone will probably eclipse that of all their other home games combined. They are satisfied with just having the game.

Sure they want to win. This WVU team has been doing their shtick against teams with far better defenses than the one Marshall will throw on the field. Stacking the box worked for a while for western michigan, but when Slaton finally got past that initial wall in the 2nd half, there was no one there.

Before this series got signed before last year, and since the time they played in 97, both athletic departments talked about getting a series together. I mean shit, I would rather we get a bigger name school on the schedule, but I can understand the importance for the little guy to try and beat the big guy. Anyway, they could never get anything together, it was usually money issues. Marshall wanted as much as we would give a team the caliber of Notre Dame to come up there and play, and WVU did not want to go down to huntington to play because the stadium only held about 29,000 fans at the time (I think it is up to 35 now). Anyway, they just couldn't get a deal done. SO a huntington business rented a very visible billboard in the heart of Morgantown with simply the Marshall logo on it. Boy did that cause a shit storm.

Many have not forgotten that, including myself. I could probably write for days about some of the back and forth over the years, but I will stop now.
 
OHIO -1 110 (Greek)

Yes, I know ULL held their own against SC last week while Ohio faced an overmatched Gardner Webb team, but let's not chalk this one up as a win for ULL just yet because there are a lot of variables involved in this one that caused me to jump on the Bobcats.

Both of these teams are going to run the ball, we all know that, and they know that, so for me this game will come down to which team will be able to establish a balanced offensive attack, as the rushing games will pretty much cancel each other out.

Kalvin McRae for Ohio will get his 150+ in this one, and I expect the ULL QB Desormeaux along with RB Fenroy to combine for about 200+ as well. McRae had 142 vs GWebb while Desormeaux had 116 vs SC. I know SC is a much better defense than GWebb, but I think we would also agree that SC was not mentally focused for that game as I lost count on the number of missed tackles that occurred on the defensive side of the ball for the Gamecocks, but that is another story.

So, we know that both teams are gonna put up insane numbers on the ground, so what about the passing games? The big key for Ohio this year is to not be so one dimensional as in year's past, as they have simply rode the back of McRae in the past, which has been a decent strategy for the most part, but everyone knows that you can't have sustained success being a one dimensional team. Therefore the key for Ohio this year is not McRae, because he will get his, but Brad Bower, the new Bobcat QB who came over from Illinois a while back. This is his opportunity to prove himself and while GWebb isn't a top 20 defense, they aren't a bottom 20 one either, and Bower did a solid job of hitting his open receivers and taking what the defense gave him on Saturday, and this will bode well vs a ULL defense that is so focused against stopping the downfield ball that they are willing to give up the pitch and catch game all day long.

All the Bobcats need Bower to do is to be consistent in the short passing game and to not make any mistakes while giving them some semblance of a balanced attack, as that will open things up for McRae to break a few big ones vs a young ULL defense that only has 5 starters back. ULL's biggest issue is their lack of balance as their one dimensional attack for all the excitement it may generate, only got them a whopping 18ppg vs conference foes in 2006. Couple that with the fact that ULL had less than stellar attendance to watch their home losses LY vs North Texas (7-16), ULM (20-39), and MTSU (21-35), which in essence takes away the "huge HFA" argument.

At the end of the day, this is a play on Brad Bower and my belief that he has the ability to provide the Bobcats with a more balanced offensive attack than ULL will be able to generate this weekend. Give me Ohio -1 in what should be a close game pulled out by the more balanced, better team from the better conference.

Just a reminder that the above is simply a rationale as to why I am playing Ohio, not a reason for anyone else to do so, because at the end of the day, we need to feel at ease with our own decisions on each of our plays.
 
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Quick note on line moves...

VILLE/MTSU total now up to 59.5, glad I got in when I did
WVU down to 24 - still can't figure this one out, but oh well
UNC up to 4.5 and 5 - completely misjudged this one, man
PSU up to 17 - guess I should stop complaining about my 15.5 now
Rutgers up to 16.5 - definitely happy about the 13.5 I got
 
i like the Penn St. play like everyone else,but for some reason i'm getting bad feelings about it...which is keeping em away..hope it hits though
 
Nice warning/disclaimer on Ohio.

But I like it, I'm leaning toward biting. Solich is very good on the road.
 
Does anyone know if ull got beat up physically in the usc game ?? it is back to back physical football to be played here.


Also , i hope we are all grown adults and dont blame others for "talking us off a play" or "talking us onto a play". The information you and others provide in your posts should be used by people in their own capping as additional , and most often insightful, knowledge. Everyone is responsible for their own decisions. you dont need to make any disclaimers buddy imo.
keep up the good work and look forward to more insight in the coming ..... well seconds or minutes hopefully
 
mb197942 said:
cb whats your 3 best plays
Click to expand...

Top 4 that havent seen large line moves
Temple -2.5 (line is 3.5 now)
WVU -24.5 (line is 23.5 or 24 now so guessed wrong here)
Alabama -2.5 125 (line still the same)
Fresno +18 (line is 17.5 now)

Actually like these below even more than the ones above, but the line moves mean saying I like these won't help you to be honest...

Rutgers -13.5 (line is 16.5 now I think)
TN Martin -4.5 (line is now 10 and I only got down on a play to win 50 b/c of limits at 5dimes)
Over 57 in the Ville game

Gotti - Yes, I would still take it at 60, but not as confident as I would be at 57 because I could see 52-7 or 42-17 in this one.
 
RJ Esq said:
Nice warning/disclaimer on Ohio.

But I like it, I'm leaning toward biting. Solich is very good on the road.
Click to expand...

RJ and VK - Yeah, the only reason I put that is b/c I know many guys jumped on ULL at open so not trying to convince anyone of anything, so didn't want it to come off that way at all. I know a lot of guys like to read my stuff and that's cool because I am definitely here to help as many people make money as possible b/c I don't see this as a zero sum game. I will still get my profit so why not have others join in the fun.

There is no competition between me and anyone else in here (except maybe Stacks cuz he is the only one keeping me from proclaiming my dynasty across cbb and cfb haha), as the only one I am tryin to beat is the book, but just didn't want guys to think I was trying to talk em off a play that's all.
 
RJ Esq said:
Those are weird line movements on WVU and Michigan.

Woulda thought that WVU would stay over 24 since it got bet up quickly.

The money on Michigan might be because Oregon allowed over 200 yards rushing to Houston and figure that Hart has a helluva day.

The over might be the better play since both D's look like they have major issues.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was hoping the total would have opened a little lower. Not gonna touch it because it is too steep for my tastes. I think they nailed that one where it is so no value for me in tryin to hope for an offensive shootout in that one, because it could be 34-31 or 31-27 or who knows. Just too many points involved on teams that are sure to make adjustments after week 1 as neither can be too happy about their performance on that side of the ball.
 
CB, if you don't mind, I like to hear about what you expect out of this Fresno St. D. They lost their top 7 tacklers, and they weren't great agains the run LY. I am concerned about them being unable to stop A&M's running game and it is the main reason I am staying away as of now.

Thanks and GL this week.
 
Man, I wish 5dimes wouldn't have such low limits on those 1-AA opens. I knew that TN Martin line was soft when it opened at 4.5, but I could only get down on it at 57.50 to win 50.00, which just doesnt do it for me. Now I see today that the line has shot up to 10.5, crazy stuff. This one is like Hawai'i, were I was able to grab it at open at 53 and then once the limits came off I hit it again at 55. They won by 57, so early line shopping paid off big time since it closed around 60 that night. Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to the TN Martin line late last night so I missed the first jump and subsequent freeing of the limits but oh well. Definitely something for you guys who have 5 dimes to keep an eye on for the future though. The trick is to lock in that second play after the line moves as that is typically when they free up the limits.
 
Dmoney416 said:
CB, if you don't mind, I like to hear about what you expect out of this Fresno St. D. They lost their top 7 tacklers, and they weren't great agains the run LY. I am concerned about them being unable to stop A&M's running game and it is the main reason I am staying away as of now.

Thanks and GL this week.
Click to expand...

Dmoney - Great question and a very valid point. I won't write a ten page thesis on the subject or anything, but I will drop a few thoughts that should help provide insight into why I am willing to give the Bulldogs a shot this weekend...

First, I agree that Fresno did suffer some big losses on defense as they only return 4 starters from a year ago, but this is far from an inexperienced group as they have 6 senior starters and a number of players who have extensive game/starting experience during their tenure at Fresno State. This is important, because while College Station can certainly be a very intimidating place to play, I am more confident that upperclassmen will be able to handle the pressure moreso than if the defense was made up of FR and SO starters.

Secondly, Fresno State is very vulnerable in the secondary in my opinion as that is where most of their youth resides (they have 3 seniors on the DL so in the trenches the experience is there). The fact that A&M relies so heavily on the run is actually a plus for the Bulldogs because I am not convinced that Stephen McGee has the necessary tools to take over a game with his arm moreso than his legs. He is a tremendous athlete, but if Fresno stacks the line and is able to somewhat contain the run and keep him from scrambling and making those crazy plays, I don't think he can pull off the cover through the air, but again just my opinion.

The biggest keys will be whether Fresno can win the battle in the trenches, because once you get past their front four, they are very vulnerable (LBs and DBs) so Fresno has to challenge McGee to beat them in the air and they have to stay focused in their lanes and not over commit or else McGee will have them on their heels all day long.

At the end of the day, I think A&M wins this one, but I think Brandstater surprises a lot of people on Saturday with his poise and ability to make clutch plays as Fresno takes A&M down to the wire in what should be a close ball game that will be a lot of fun to watch.

Lastly, Pat Hill is a solid coach who will have his team ready to play on Saturday, as he always seems to give the big dogs a fight whether it is at Fresno or in their own backyard, so as long as they don't get rattled out of the gate by the 12th man, I think Fresno will hang tough and A&M will be in for a back and forth dogfight in this one.

Hope that helps give some insight. Best of luck this weekend!
 
Really appreciate the insight - thanks for taking the time to write it up. I'll have to give it another look myself.
 
CB, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the ECU/UNC game.

ECU played VTech tough. UNC had a fairly easy game.

Thanks.
 
CB With you on Fresno. Totally agree with your write up.I think fresno hangs with em and if they can get a early lead on them.watch out .I look for this to be a close game 9 points or less.BOL CB
 
Week 1 Record --> 5-6-1 -1.56 units (Because I played Texas for 2 units, I am counting it as 2 losses on my W/L record for that one play, instead of one). After week 1, I won't include the push anymore, since it is just a pain to keep putting that in my record moving forward.

Week 2 Card Summarized

LOU/MTSU OVER 57 WIN +1.0
RUTGERS -13.5 WIN +1.0
WVU -24.5 (BAD LINE)
TEMPLE -2.5 120
UNC +4 (BAD LINE)
OHIO -1
FRESNO +18
PSU -15.5
HAWAII -27.5
MIZZOU -5.5 (AT 5 DIMES)
ALABAMA -2.5 125 (AT 5 DIMES)

Below are "fun money" plays that won't count towards the record either way since they are less than a fraction of a unit plays due to low 5dimes opening limits. Basically trying to get a feel for the I-AA games in a low risk fashion until I get a feel for the teams better.

TN MARTIN -4 LOSS
NW STATE -4
 
daveniner said:
CB, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the ECU/UNC game.

ECU played VTech tough. UNC had a fairly easy game.

Thanks.
Click to expand...


Dave,
Unfortunately I am about to head out to the store to grab some beer before the noon kickoffs, but I will say that in a rivalry game like this one (and yes this is a huge rivalry game for both teams, with a lot of heat and animosity on both sides), I will always opt for the points, because I see this one coming down to a FG either way, as these teams are very evenly matched. If this becomes a consistent series year in and year out, I can easily see it playing out like the current Memphis/Ole Miss one, where every game is pretty much decided by a few points here or there. I actually see this one going over pretty easily, but after hitting that Louisville over, I don't wanna press my luck on totals, as I probably only play 2-3 a year if that. James Madison is a very solid team by the way, so I wouldn't necessarily write off last week as a cake walk, as they could probably beat a number of 1-A teams, including ECU. Best of luck today!
 
WEEK 2 RECAP (9 Wins, 2 Losses)
LOU/MTSU WIN +1.0
RUTGERS WIN +1.0
WVU WIN +1.0
TEMPLE LOSS -1.2
UNC WIN +1.0
OHIO WIN +1.0
FRESNO WIN +1.0
PSU WIN +1.0
HAWAII LOSS -1.1
MIZZOU WIN +1.0
ALABAMA WIN +1.0

9-2 RECORD +6.7 UNITS

YEAR TO DATE 14-8-1 +5.14 UNITS

Nice bounceback this week, but still a long season to go, so no time to rest on my laurels. Just printed out the week 3 schedule, and will begin working on initial leans while I watch the late games tonight.
 
Thanks guys, appreciate it. Feel really good about winning Ohio, UNC, and Fresno, because those three especially were ones that many had the other side on, so it feels good to know I capped those three correctly as none were fluke wins at all.

Temple was just a bad call on my part as I should have known not to lay points with a bad team, but man they were so tempting haha. Hawaii was just one of those games that happens every once in a while. Can't cap turnovers and silly mistakes but hey what can ya do. Not gonna complain about clearing almost 7 units in a night when you consider all my plays are 1 unit a piece flat plays. Best of luck next week. Already working on my card as we speak.
 
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