Carolinablue Week 2 College Football

[carolinablue]

Week 1 Recap...

I don't think I have ever experienced so many highs and lows while attending a game before in my entire life, as that game had so many momentum swings, but in the end, we made way too many mistakes and while the defense played their hearts out for the most part, we just couldn't seal the deal when it counted. Not gonna complain about the officiating, as we had opportunities to win the game but just couldn't finish it off. Hats off to Georgia as they were the better team last night.

Crazy week 1 in terms of plays, as my non-free plays were about as effective as our defense was at stopping the Georgia running game in the 4th quarter. I actually just did all the math and I finished up with a 4-6 record on those at BOL, and lost -4.60 units. The only thing that saved me was the fact that I hit 3 ML Dogs (SMiss, Wyoming and Houston) with the free plays, which garnered me +4.62 units, leaving me up +0.02 units overall at BOL, but over at 5D, I ended up down overall, as my FCS plays couldn't offset my horrible Razorback pick, due to the limits on the FCS ones. So, over at 5D, even though I was 3-1 overall for the first week, I still lost -0.39 units.

Total Week 1 Results
7-7 overall, lost -0.37 units

Could have and probably should have been a lot worse, so I will just give thanks that I survived one of the craziest week 1's in recent memory and leave it at that.

Congrats to all those who made cash this first week as the landmines were spread far and wide, so you definitely have my respect if you were able to navigate around them to clear some profit, nice work!

 

[carolinablue]

Week 2 Plays Final Week 2 Results = 9-3 +5.45 Units

BOL
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 375 Georgia Southern -13 -115 for GAME
Football - 375 Georgia Southern -13 -110 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 311 Ohio +1 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 359 Middle Tennessee +3½ -115 for GAME
Football - 315 Eastern Michigan +26 -110 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 366 Miami Florida -22½ -110 for GAME
Football - 311 Ohio +3½ -127 buying -½ for Game
ADDED WKU +29 110
ADDED CMU +21.5 120

5D
9/10/16 3:30pm College Football 369 SMU +31 -110* vs Baylor
9/10/16 6:00pm College Football 506 Marshall -40½ -120* vs Morgan State
ADDED UMASS +17.5 120

 

[sinyde]

NC didnt look so bad bad yesterday, in the end chubbs was a bit to much to handle from what i saw. cant be disappointed in a break even week 1,, that utep over should of swung the other way. going for 2 with 9 min left and missing it? no score for the rest of the game? would of been more scoring if it wasnt 1 sided. best of luck in week 2...

 

[CrimsonK]

I was quite surprised UNC didn't run more. Was an odd offensive gameplan. Your defense actually played better than I anticipated considering UGA had it for 38 minutes.

I played your rivals the Dukies -5.5 at open and San Diego State -7 for this week. I lean the Ga Southern way as well considering how hard they are to stop let alone when their opponents are likely to be drunk most the week celebrating. I think I'm going to be interested in the total in that one - USA has a legit passing attack and that hybrid TE is a nightmare to cover and I don't see them stopping Southern either

 

[carolinablue]

Added at 5D...

9/10/16 3:30pm College Football 369 SMU +31 -110* vs Baylor

 

[carolinablue]

Man, looks like I jumped too early on MTSU as the line is now up to 5.5...gotta admit kinda surprised as I thought it would move the other way, but it happens sometimes so not gonna sweat it too much...unless of course they lose by 4 or 5!

 

[bluedevilboy]

What do you like in Georgia Southern?

 

[carolinablue]

Added at BOL...

Football - 315 Eastern Michigan +26 -110 for Game

 

[M.W.]

Man, looks like I jumped too early on MTSU as the line is now up to 5.5...gotta admit kinda surprised as I thought it would move the other way, but it happens sometimes so not gonna sweat it too much...unless of course they lose by 4 or 5!

Did Stockstill get injured or something? Fortunately, I missed the early number and got the 5.5. Game's a tossup.

 

[carolinablue]

What do you like in Georgia Southern?

USA had one of the worst run defenses in cfb last year and after reading up on the game vs MSU, I was blown away that MSU didn't run the ball more to take control of the game when they had the chance. MSU also appeared to allow USA a lot of second chance opportunities as a result of penalties and defensive lapses, while GSU is a much more disciplined team in my opinion.

I see the GSU option from the gun attack giving USA fits especially if GSU sticks to their plan this year of mixing in more passing to keep the defenses from stacking the line. USA also has had some injuries on D which impacts their depth and ability to hang for the full 60 minutes against the GSU offense.

None of this even takes into account the potential hangover from the win on Saturday as I had GSU at 21 or more before that one, so an easy variance play for me as I don't over-adjust based on a one game sample size, especially when MSU did more to lose the game than USA did to win it, at least based on what I have reviewed of the game, but I will add the caveat that I didn't actually see the game, so definitely correct me if I am seeing it wrong. Hope this helps!

 

[carolinablue]

Did Stockstill get injured or something? Fortunately, I missed the early number and got the 5.5. Game's a tossup.

Funny, because that was the first thing I looked up when I saw the line at 3.5 so when I saw the injury situation was all clear, I thought I had made a solid grab at that number, but then I come back a couple hours later and see it had jumped to 5 at BOL and 5.5 at 5D and I just laughed because sometimes that's all you can do. I missed the openers at BOL today anyway as I crashed most of the afternoon after driving back earlier today, so was at least happy to get Ohio as a dog as KU winning 2 in a row is a play I will go against 99% of the time.

 

[bluedevilboy]

My site has -13.5 -105 do you think it's pointless buying 1/2 point in this situation?

 

[Gotta Eat]

Any thoughts on your Tarheels this week vs the Illini?

 

[carolinablue]

No value to me at the current line but would have taken it at 6.5 which is where it opened from what I was told. I think we win by DD but just don't see the value laying 2 scores on the road coming off of a tough one like last night.

 

[carolinablue]

I would take the 13.5 105 as i don't buy to a push, only to get across certain numbers.

 

[carolinablue]

Added Miami -22.5 110 at BOL

 

[sinyde]

Added Miami -22.5 110 at BOL

Like it, had a decent team for the past few years but could never play a complete game. After what I saw last night, seems like they may be able to compete in all 4 quarters.

 

[bluedevilboy]

Added Miami -22.5 110 at BOL

Just curious..but what's your power rated number for Miami (FL) vs Florida Atlantic?

 

[carolinablue]

Just curious..but what's your power rated number for Miami (FL) vs Florida Atlantic?

Miami by 31, so given that my plays are variance based, I would play this one at anything under 24. My variance level will change based on how well I do early as it gives me a read on whether I am in the ballpark or way off. Judging from Week 1, I am lowering my variance a bit which means fewer plays and not as many plays on ones that are right on the edge of variance, if that makes any sense.

 

[carolinablue]

Here are my other numbers just for reference...

GSU 21 (variance 8.0)
EMU 17 (variance 8.5)
Ohio 7 (variance 8.0)
SMU 24 (variance 7.0)
MTSU 4 (variance 7.5)

 

[carolinablue]

Added at 5D

9/10/16 6:00pm College Football 506 Marshall -40½ -120* vs Morgan State

 

[Elbutre88]

w/you on southern. gl

 

[carolinablue]

w/you on southern. gl

Kinda surprised the line dropped a bit to 13 110 after initially going up, but decided to no longer drive myself crazy checking lines of games already locked in haha. Best of luck this weekend with the rest of your card.

 

[carolinablue]

Here is clarification on the EMU QB situation....Basically, Porter will get the start again just like he did last week as Roback didn't play in the opener and is not expected to play vs Mizzou either, so no different than expected as my EMU pick was made based on Porter starting like he did in Week 1.

Porter or Roback — Who will it be?: Leading up to the 2016 season, junior quarterback Brogan Roback was the presumptive starter. Roback, however, was suspended for EMU's Sept. 2 opener against Mississippi Valley State for a violation of team rules.

In 2015, Roback compiled a 61 percent completion rate to go with 16 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He threw for 2,304 yards.

Todd Porter — a transfer from Garden City (Kan.) Community College in the offseason — started the Eagles' 61-14 victory over the Delta Devils and played well, completing 15 of 22 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns. The O'Fallon, Ill., native, a redshirt junior, threw one interception.

EMU Coach Chris Creighton has refused to indicate how many games Roback's suspension will last.

"We're not ready to announce that yet," Creighton said during the MAC's teleconference on Monday in response to a question about whether Roback will be available this weekend at Missouri. "Brogan will be playing this season. We feel really good about how Todd played last week."

On the team's latest depth chart, which was released on Monday, Porter is listed as the No. 1 quarterback followed by James Pensyl and Roback at No. 3.

 

[carolinablue]

Do I dare roll the dice on 2 big dogs this week, as I am leaning Tulsa and WKU being able to put up enough points to stay within the huge numbers they are getting, especially with the schedule situation of Alabama heading to Ole Miss in Week 3 and OSU with Oklahoma on tap. Going through some numbers now and just going to stay patient as I expect both to rise so want to make sure I get every point I can and not leave any on the table.

 

[carolinablue]

Just added another unit on GSU -13 110 at BOL

Football - 375 Georgia Southern -13 -110 for Game

 

[carolinablue]

Random stat of the day...

Kansas hasn't won back to back games since September 2011, yet they are 3pt favs vs Ohio....

 

[M.W.]

Canes might be my top play this week. Glad all us ACC guys are in agreement on that one.

 

[carolinablue]

Adding another unit on Ohio to make Ohio and GSU two big plays for me this week...

Football - 311 Ohio +3½ -127 buying -½ for Game

 

[carolinablue]

Still considering UMass if the line gets back up to 17 at BOL and also still considering a couple of other small home favs as well.

 

[carolinablue]

Added UMass 17.5 120

One of those math geek plays of mine where the line is past a certain percentage of the total so logically worth a play.

 

[carolinablue]

Added CMU +21.5 120

 

[M.W.]

good luck

 

[bluedevilboy]

I just played Ga Southern in a 2 team 6 point teaser down to -6.5 from -12.5 at Bet DSI

 

[carolinablue]

Looks good BDB. I am in Omaha through Saturday on business so won't catch a lick of football Saturday unless I can snag an earlier flight outta here. Best of luck this weekend!

 

[carolinablue]

Last play of the weekend

Western Kentucky +29 110

Situational and historical trend play coupled with the fact that WKU will go down swinging on the big stage so the backdoor will be open til the end. Seeing a 45-24 type of game here.

 

[carolinablue]

Just in case you guys hadn't heard the news about the UNC OL situation...


CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – North Carolina junior R.J. Prince has been working with the first team at right guard this week and is expected to start against Illinois on Saturday.
Starting right guard Tommy Hatton is currently not practicing with the team due to personal reasons.
When asked on Wednesday about Hatton’s absence at practice this week, offensive coordinator/OL coach Chris Kapilovic said that the redshirt freshman was “working through some things.”

Hatton, who arrived last season as the heir apparent to Lucas Crowley at center, competed and won the right guard spot in training camp following a season-ending chest injury to senior John Ferranto. The Glen Rock, N.J. native beat out Prince and junior Brad Henson for the starting job and played in the season-opening loss to Georgia on Saturday.

Prince, who had played tackle throughout his career until the start of training camp last month, finished second in the position battle and played against the Bulldogs.
“I think he’s ready,” Kapilovic said of Prince. “He’s had a good week and has prepared well, so we’re ready to put him out there and see what he can do.”
The 6-foot-6, 325-pounder out of Albemarle, N.C. has always had the physical tools to start at the Power 5 conference level, but has at times struggled with the mental components of the game.

“I think he’s in a good place,” Kapilovic said. “He’s had a good week. He’s had a couple of good weeks, so he’s starting to show a maturity in being able to handle making the calls and recognizing situations. He’s got a couple of guys around him that can help him, too, so that will be helpful.”

 

[carolinablue]

9-2 (+6.65 units) so far on the day with EMU still pending. Definitely got more than a few breaks today but still nice to see things play out as they did today.

 

[sinyde]

:shake2: Fantastic week cb !

 

[carolinablue]

9-3 +5.45 units on the week.

Definitely want to give credit to those who were on Mizzou as you guys nailed it and my side was the wrong one no doubt, so congrats to you guys.