Carolinablue Week 14 Plays

[carolinablue]

Last week went 0-1 as my only play was a complete bust (thanks MSU). You see, that's what I get for playing a dog!

Year to Date 51-45-1 as I continue to limp towards the finish line haha.

Road Favs 25-18
Home Favs 13-12
Road Dogs 11-9
Home Dogs 1-0-1
Totals 1-6

One play so far this week and yes it is a Road Fav, and yes it is from the Sunbelt.

ARKANSAS STATE -20 110 (greek)

Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold are gonna rack up 500+ against the Mean Green defense, as ASU still has an outside shot at the Sunbelt and they are also playing for bowl eligibility, so I expect them to come out and take care of business in a statement game, as they try to show why they should be considered for an at large bowl berth at the end of the season.

The fact that this one is a road game for ASU is irrelevant as North Texas actually seems to be better prepared on the road than at home, but either way, I expect them to give up 50 plus here as the balanced ASU offensive attack will be too much for the Mean Green to handle as they play out the string of what has been a completely dreadful season.

 

[RJ Esq]

I take it you think the line will only go up.

 

[carolinablue]

I take it you think the line will only go up.

I expect it to hit 21.5 or 22 sooner rather than later.

 

[RJ Esq]

What about the fact that Arky St is only 1-4 ATS against UNT?

 

[carolinablue]

What about the fact that Arky St is only 1-4 ATS against UNT?

North Texas' worst games have been against teams that are multi-dimensional. The reason they were able to beat WKU is b/c the Hilltoppers were the definition of a one dimensional team, and that allowed NT to compensate for their liabilities on defense by focusing on one aspect of WKU's offensive game.

The problem for them in this matchup IMO will be the fact that Leonard has a fairly decent arm and Arnold is a beast in the backfield. Leonard also has the ability to scramble as well, so this one in some ways could be reminiscent of the ULL at NT matchup which the Cajuns won by 29, as their offense is in many ways similar to Arkie State's, although I would give the edge to ULL in terms of talent, but not by any outrageous margin by any means.

I honestly don't use ATS history in my analysis as a lot of factors could be shaping those past numbers, so the 1-4 ATS L5 doesn't affect my thinking at all. The bigger stat for me is that ASU hasn't blown anyone out this year (I don't count non D-1A teams), but NT seems to be the cure all for any offense that is having trouble putting drives together and points on the board in bunches, as they are allowing about 45ppg in their Sunbelt games, and I see ASU having no problem hitting at or above that average on Saturday.

Best of luck this weekend!

 

[TheGarfather]

For a man that likes favorites and under the radar games I thought for sure I would see Nevada listed in here.

 

[carolinablue]

For a man that likes favorites and under the radar games I thought for sure I would see Nevada listed in here.

Was on the short list, but didn't quite make the cut because I am not sure how they will come out after the tough defeat on Saturday in what was basically their Super Bowl of sorts. You know me well though as it was on my short list which basically only had 3 plays on it, with Arkie State the only one making the cut.

 

[pags11]

GL CB...

 

[Timh]

GL CB.

 

[TheGarfather]

Hey bro, I need a favor. You are better at finding info than I am. I tried topix.net but must not have done a good job cause I still don't have the info I need.

What is the status of the four following individuals for WMU: Londen Fryar (Irving's son), Schneider Julien, Brandon West, and Branden Ledbetter? If you find anything let me know. Either here or at my site. Thanks a bunch. You know I that's a dog I like on the ML.

 

[TheGarfather]

According to donbest.com FWIW, Schneider and West are in, the other two are out. I wanted West and Fryar, so I went 1-1 I guess. Schneider is nice to have because he is a punt returner, but really you can always find someone to catch the ball so his absence along with Ledbetter didn't worry me too much. West is the leading rusher and a nice receiver out of the back field. Good enough for government work. Official play: WMU ML +355. They could get blown out, but if its close I don't see why they can't win.

 

[Timh]

Hey bro, I need a favor. You are better at finding info than I am. I tried topix.net but must not have done a good job cause I still don't have the info I need.

What is the status of the four following individuals for WMU: Londen Fryar (Irving's son), Schneider Julien, Brandon West, and Branden Ledbetter? If you find anything let me know. Either here or at my site. Thanks a bunch. You know I that's a dog I like on the ML.

Important Injuries
Western Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/24 2:44am CB Londen Fryar Toe is downgraded to doubtful
11/24 2:44am TE Branden Ledbetter Abdominal is downgraded to expected to miss
11/24 2:43am RB Brandon West Ankle is upgraded to probable
11/24 2:43am WR Schneider Julien Shoulder is upgraded to probable

 

[carolinablue]

Last few days I debated on whether or not I should take a shot on a total since I have been absolutely abysmal this year on em, but I narrowed it down to the Arkie State over and the Texas over, and I ended up taking Texas over 67 since they have all the motivation in the world to put up 68 on their own, since they completely understand how things work with regard to the BCS.

TEXAS/A&M OVER 67

 

[Schrute]

Last few days I debated on whether or not I should take a shot on a total since I have been absolutely abysmal this year on em, but I narrowed it down to the Arkie State over and the Texas over, and I ended up taking Texas over 67 since they have all the motivation in the world to put up 68 on their own, since they completely understand how things work with regard to the BCS.

TEXAS/A&M OVER 67

CB I love it and I'm on it too. I see something like 63-14

 

[M.W.]

I really the 2Q over 20 -105 in that game.

 

[carolinablue]

This is partly an ego play for me to be honest as I just can't accept being 1-6 on totals this year as I have lost by a point here and a point there, so this may not be the smartest play for me as I am letting emotions get involved, but I just don't see how Texas doesn't put up 60+ in this one. Been drinking since 11am so should make for a fun time watching this one later tonight at the in laws!

 

[carolinablue]

Assuming there is rain moving into the area as the total just dropped a full point at the greek. Gonna stick with my play obviously, but hoping it just some passing showers and not a wind and rain event making its way into Austin.