Carolinablue Week 11 Plays and Discussion

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
All week 11 plays will go here. Greek lines are just coming out and it is already 8pm, so locking them in as they come up there, as they are trickling in one by one at the Greek now.

BGSU -3 120 (Greek)
INDIANA ML 120 (Greek)
KENT -3 120 (Greek)
AFA -2 110 (5 Dimes)
ECU -7 125 (5 Dimes) - 7.5 was 110 but they charged 15 for 7 grrrr...







Week 10 Results
CLEMSON = ROAD FAV WINNER
LA TECH = ROAD FAV WINNER
2-0 +1.54 units (lost 0.46 on 1-AA plays)

Year to Date Results
41-27 +9.956 units (60.3%)

Breakdown of Record
Road Favs 18-9 (13-3 on Road Favs of 3.5 or greater)
Home Favs 15-12
Road Dogs 3-2
Home Dogs 0-1
Totals 5-3
 
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Here are the teams I will be keeping my eye on this week, line dependent of course...

MTSU as a home fav vs ULL
FAU as a home fav vs ASU
ECU as a road fav at Marshall
LSU as a home fav vs La Tech
KAN as a road fav at OSU
 
Here are some potential road favs that I might be interested in depending on how the lines shake out...

BGSU (at emu), ASU (at ucla), AFA (at nd), IND (at nw), UCF (at uab)
 
BGSU -3 120
INDIANA 0.5 120 (same diff as ML obviously)


Gonna hold out on AF as I saw it drop to 1 somewhere earlier, and it is 2 everywhere else pretty much, so thinking that 5 dimes will have a better price than 2.5 110 which is where the Greek opened it at.
 
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Most of you can probably predict the next round of plays as you know I am looking at road favs who I think will have the best chance of covering, and you know those road favs won't be from the major conferences since I like the under the radar games more than the tv ones..
 
Was hoping for ASU closer to 4, but it is at 6 at The Greek, so that is now a no play.

ECU at 8 is painful as it is 7 and 7.5 everywhere else. Gonna wait and see where 5dimes opens at.

Same with SMiss, it is at 15, was hoping for 14 or less so probably a no play there also.

Kent at 3.5, was hoping 3 so I could get the 2.5. Again, will wait and see where 5dimes opens if they ever get around to releasing their lines.

UCF at 21 also too high as I was hoping closer to 18. Man, just not getting any breaks on these fav lines this week, oh well.
 
Kinda like Fresno at 17 but think that the line will go up later this week, so hopefully it will hit 18 as I might bite at that number, not sure yet since I rarely play dogs.
 
Nothing in the Sunbelt interests me by the way. FAU at 6.5 is dead on in my opinion so no value there. The other lines are shaded too high, but not high enough for me to have any interest in the dogs, so all will be no plays.
 
KENT -3 120 (Greek)

Bookmaker has already moved to 4 and Pinny just saw a spike in juice at 3.5, so figured I shouldn't be greedy and just take the 3 120 while it is there as this one will be 4 110 everywhere pretty soon.

5dimes is starting to see their lines trickle in, so here's hoping they are a half point to a point light on ECU
 
AF -2 110 (5dimes)

Not really any difference between 2.5 and 2, but why take 2.5 at the Greek when I can get 2 at the same 110 price at 5dimes. This is where having a 2nd book comes in handy.
 
Overall, feel pretty good about the lines and prices because I honestly think all the lines will go up a good point between now and this weekend. I see BGSU settling in around 4 or 4.5, Indiana I think will stay around 1.5 or 2 for the most part, Kent I think will hit 4 to 4.5 pretty quickly, if not 5, AFA I think ends up around 3, and ECU I honestly think could hit 10.
 
You are the model of consistency.. While everyone else is chasing the Sunday night NFL game you are locking in value plays for next weeks CFB..:bow:
 
tee*dub said:
You are the model of consistency.. While everyone else is chasing the Sunday night NFL game you are locking in value plays for next weeks CFB..:bow:
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Thanks buddy. I honestly couldn't even tell you who is winning that one or the cfb sunday night game as I have been focused on waiting for these lines to come out for the last 3hrs. I actually recorded the last 5mins of the Indy v NE game so I could watch it just now as I didn't want to miss out on the lines coming out while the game was on haha.
 
5 Dimes current lines...

AFA at 2.5
Kent at 4
ECU at 8 (7 now costs 135)
BGSU at 4
Indiana at 1.5

So far so good on locking in the lines early at both 5dimes and the Greek as all have moved up vs what I locked in. It's been a few weeks since my locking in an early line has actually resulted in a W vs a L, so maybe this will be the week when the moves make a difference again.
 
Love AFA.

I'm going to wait on the MAC games, but I can definately see Kent.

Nice week last week and GLTY next week, pal...
 
Joe Public said:
Yeah, I don't understand that Air Force line. Which usually suggests bad things, but I'm with you.
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I hear what you are saying JP but I try not to overanalyze things as almost everyone and their brother at the other place was on Duke last week because of the whole conspiracy or trap theory and look where that got them.
 
counselor said:
Love AFA.

I'm going to wait on the MAC games, but I can definately see Kent.

Nice week last week and GLTY next week, pal...
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Yeah, the MAC is kinda like the Sunbelt in that it is not for the faint of heart. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if EMU and NIU both won SU at home, but gotta go with what my instincts tell me on those two plays and that is with the road favs.
 
gl looks good as i added some plays you have based on my leans and your confidence gl to us.....college basketball bro you have to play atleast a smake wager on todays game fro fun
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, the MAC is kinda like the Sunbelt in that it is not for the faint of heart. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if EMU and NIU both won SU at home, but gotta go with what my instincts tell me on those two plays and that is with the road favs.
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:seeya:
 
Looks like the weather might be a factor in Kalamazoo tomorrow night. 60% of rain and/or snow showers, and 20 mph NNW winds expected. Under?

I got burned by playing the weather-factor on Sat. with Rutgers/UConn and Florida St./BC...
 
counselor said:
Looks like the weather might be a factor in Kalamazoo tomorrow night. 60% of rain and/or snow showers, and 20 mph NNW winds expected. Under?

I got burned by playing the weather-factor on Sat. with Rutgers/UConn and Florida St./BC...
Click to expand...


I have never been able to get a solid grip on playing totals, which is why I hardly ever play em. Every once in a while I see a line that catches my eye, but most of the time I honestly have no idea so I rarely even look at them anymore.
 
sportfanatic71 said:
GL this week..going through card right now. Air Force might be a HUGE play for me.

Any thoughts on kansas this week.
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I like Kansas this week, but they didn't make the cut as I was looking for less than 4 and didn't get it, so no play for me as I think it might be closer than people think.
 
TroyStacks said:
gl looks good as i added some plays you have based on my leans and your confidence gl to us.....college basketball bro you have to play atleast a smake wager on todays game fro fun
Click to expand...

I am gonna drop in the forum in a bit to see what you guys are up to. Haven't even looked at cbb to be honest, as I have been so focused against getting above that 60% mark in cfb so I can hit my profit goals for the season and be done with this crazy sport haha.
 
Good luck this week, CB. I really like Central Michigan -2.5 & Ohio -3 during the week. Have any thoughts on those two games?
 
O.K. WTF is going on here? It appears as though the market average is nearly 9:1 on CMU, but I see the line on has dropped to 2.5 most everywhere, and 1.5 at one of the island shops. This makes me very, very leary.
 
CB,

Some local publications and media sources are reporting that Les Miles intends to rest his starters in the 2nd half on Saturday's game versus La Tech. I figured you would like to have this info, as the line was up to 36.5 last I checked. LSU 1H may be the only way to play this game.

GL bud
 
Blue_Chip said:
CB,

Some local publications and media sources are reporting that Les Miles intends to rest his starters in the 2nd half on Saturday's game versus La Tech. I figured you would like to have this info, as the line was up to 36.5 last I checked. LSU 1H may be the only way to play this game.

GL bud
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info blue chip, your insight is always appreciated.

My card is locked and loaded for the week as I decided to stay off of LSU because I could see La Tech getting a garbage TD late to blow the cover so I didn't wanna risk it with such a huge spread.

Best of luck this week.
 
I'd prefer to be joining ranks with you, Cb , but afraid it will only by AFA.
My record in the MAC is atrocious this year so i pass on BG and Kent . GL
I see your Big Ten game like Vegaskyle does, so it's the best of health to you on Indiana.
Rode your heels last week and likely to do so tomorrow.
Bravo on a real good season in a tough year. :tiphat:
 
BGSU = WINNER

Nice start to week 11 as BGSU was clearly the better team tonight. If they could have taken care of business in the redzone, they would have won this one a lot easier than they did. I like EMU's TB as he is a sparkplug in the backfield, but Eastern's defense was overmatched tonight as BGSU pretty much scored at will in the second half. Definitely a fun game to watch with a gutsy 3rd down call by the Falcons at the end to clinch it.

I know a lot of guys try to stay as far away from the MAC and SUNBELT as possible, but I think there are a lot of great opportunities to cash with those conferences, so I am looking forward to keeping the momentum going with Kent from the MAC also laying 3 on the road tomorrow at NIU. Week 11 is all about the road favs, as each and every one of my plays is a road fav, and I feel great about all 5 of my plays this week, especially since I already got the first win of the weekend under my belt.

Best of luck tomorrow guys, we are entering a crucial stretch of the season as many tend to get distracted by cbb during this time of year, but I am strictly focused on cfb so that I don't take my eye off all that cfb profit that is just waiting to be had.
 
Here is what I posted in VK's thread in response to his question around why anyone would be on Indiana this week....


Why I am on Indiana this week...

I got them early in the week as noted in my thread. Now I think the line is up to 2.5 110, so glad I jumped on em when the line first opened.

First, let's take a look at the performance of the Wildcats at home as of late...In their last 4 home games, they have lost to Duke by 6 (inexcusable), lost to Michigan by 12 (expected so no negative there), beat Minny by 1 (crazy game but no way they should have only won by 1), and lost to Iowa by 11 (inexcusable). Now, Indiana hasn't been world beaters on the road, but they are at least a respectable 2-2 with wins against Iowa and Western and losses against MSU and Wisky. Again, not impressive, but passable on the road at least. Basically the Indiana road performance vs the Northwestern home performance is a wash in my book, so let's move on to matchups....

Indiana has the 46th rated passing offense and they will be going up against the 89th ranked passing defense of Northwestern. Also, Northwestern is one of the 15 worst teams in all of college football in terms of turnover margin, while Indiana is middle of the pack in that category. Lastly, Indiana is 4th in getting to the quarterback, while again Northwestern is one of the worst teams in the country in sacks allowed. The only category where NW holds an advantage over Indiana is in passing offense, as NW is 10th in the country there, but they are only 68th in scoring offense, mainly due to the fact that they are only converting 78% in the redzone this year.

Indiana has gone on record saying that they are not content with 6 wins as they know it doesn't guarantee them a bowl game. They have also gone on record saying they want to finish strong because that is how coach would have wanted it. I think they come out in this one with a lot of emotion in what should be a fun game to watch, but in the end I just think Indiana is the better team with better athletes at the skilled positions, and they do a better job of taking care of the ball.

I expect it to be a close game potentially, but with my ML play, all I need is for Indiana to win, nothing more nothing less. Hope I was able to explain clearly at least some of the reasons why I am on Indiana this weekend. There are more, but those are just some of the reasons since I know you were looking for at least a few thoughts from the Indiana backers. Hope that helps!
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________
 
I like the Hoosiers d, especially their d-line, and I think they get it done in Evansville, as well...

GL, Blue

You're my boy!!!!
 
In Evansville? Isn't the game in Evanston...You are thinking of the Evansville Purple Aces who normally have a solid bball program.
 
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