carolinablue
College Football Guru
First, just want to say I appreciate the effort from all the guys on here like Sirwins, Lindetrain, Stacks, and others who have threads going to discuss week 1. Definitely helps pass the time while also getting the discussion flowing, so thanks! Basically the only reason I started this one was b/c I didn't want to hijack their threads with my rambling since my thoughts are more stream of consciousnes rather than analytical at this point.
So, with that said...here are a few random thoughts on some of the week one games that I am interested in looking into further as the summer progresses...
LSU at Miss St
I see this line opening around 21 even though many others are guessing it will be anywhere from 9 to 17. I know this is a huge game for the Bulldogs and it will be under the lights on ESPN, but Miss St just doesn't have the horses to hang with LSU IMO. I see it being something like 35-10 or 42-10, so if I can get LSU with a line in the range that most are predicting, I will definitely consider this as one of my week 1 plays, even though those who know me know that I am pretty much a home fav player for the most part (selectivity is the key as you don't hit 60%+ not being selective on home favs obviously)
Memphis vs Ole Miss
I expect this one to be around Memphis -4 (due to HFA). The recent spreads in this series have been pretty tight, ranging anywhere from pk to 4, and over the course of this rivalry Ole Miss has dominated for the most part, but I lean towards the Tigers at home in this one as Ole Miss is shaping up to have a pretty bad season this year. If I can get a spread at 2.5 or less, Memphis will be considered, but the closeness of this series may cause me to lay off as I am not a big fan of laying cash on rivalry games for the most part.
South C vs ULL
I think this one will open somewhere in the low 30's, maybe -35 at the most b/c of all the hype Spurrier and co. are getting this year. I am not afraid to lay big numbers (again selectively), especially early in the season, because we all know there will be plenty of 40+ pt wins in week 1, just gotta find em. I like SC in this one but would prefer to lay in the 28 range if at all possible.
UF vs WKU
I don't think WKU will score more than 7, if at all, in this one, but not sure how I feel about this one as the spread might end up being too high for me so will wait and see how it shakes out. I think it will open at UF -45, and I think it is entirely possible to see a 59-7, 52-7, 52-0 type of game, but I also see a 49-7 or 45-7, so the opening number will be interesting to me in this one. If it comes out at say -38 or lower, then I will be all over it, but don't think it opens at less than 41.
Wisky vs WSU
I think this one opens at around -17 for the Badgers. This is another one where the opening number will be intriguing to me, b/c they are getting much attention right now, so the number might open light. I love them in this spot at home though, so if it opens at less than 2 TDs, will definitely be worth a look.
UAB at MSU
I think this one opens around -20 for the Spartans. The Blazers are going to be horrible this year, but this game is already on my tentative pass list at the moment, even though this is one that MSU should be able to win going away. MSU isn't going to have many wins this year, but I think they kill UAB in this spot. The only issue I have is that between working out a few week 1 kinks with the new coach/system and the inevitable MSU bonehead mental errors, they could leave the backdoor open for a heartbreaker, so unless the spread is lighter than I expect, will probably end up passing. There will be plenty of opps during the season to fade UAB before the books catch on IMO.
Minny vs BGSU
I expect this one to open at Minny around -21 or so. Man, Minny has made me so much week 1 money it is insane as I have cashed so many times on these guys against piss poor competition, but this just might be the year that they fail to cover against their usual week 1 cupcake. Even with the new coach, scheme, and QB, it is hard to not at least consider Minny in week 1, as those changes may give us a lighter line than normal. Would love to see 14 or less but don't think it will happen, b/c everyone has caught on to past performance, so unfortunately the line may be more inflated than it should.
OU vs NT and Texas vs Arkie State
Both of these are on my radar screen even though I expect these to be huge opening lines. I would not be surprised if OU -41 to -45 was the open, so it looks like I am expecting a bigger open than many around here are. I think the Texas line will open somewhere in the range of -45 but I wouldn't be shocked to see it as high as -52 based on past performance. Even with those high lines, I am still interested in both, believe it or not. Scores like 59-7, 59-0 or 65-7 would not surprise me at all in either game.
Other games I have my eye on are...
Louisville vs Murray State
not sure if we get a line on this one, but if we do, would not be shocked to see it in the 50's, and yes I would still consider the Ville even at something like -52...remember the Temple game last year 62-0
Miami vs Marshall
hoping to get a lighter than expected line b/c of the coaching change but not banking on it. Expecting something like -21 but would love something more reasonable like 17 or less.
Kentucky vs EKU
again, not sure if we get a line or not, but would like Kentucky at anything reasonable, say 35 or less, as they should be able to put up 50 in this one, with that offense.
UNC vs JMU
Love the over in this one as I see both teams scoring 30+ in this matchup as JMU is far from a pushover. Think it could play out like the games we had vs W&M and Furman the last few years, so give me a total of 60 or less and I will definitely consider a play in this one as I will be watching this one online most likely if I can't get out to Chapel Hill this year.
USC vs Idaho
I am not as in love with USC in this one as almost everyone else is as I just think the line will be too high to provide much value. I know USC has studs on 2nd and 3rd string who can score at will against the Vandals once this one gets outta hand, but I just don't like this team laying 45 or more which is where I think it opens, as I would much rather take my chances with teams like OU, Texas, and the Ville when having to lay big numbers like that.
Indiana vs Indy State
With Hoeppner out, I think there will be value in this line if we get one, so if it comes out at anything less than 6, I still like the Hoosiers even with the coaching issue as they will have all summer to work through that, and they will ride the emotion of "doing it for Terry" in week 1 against an inferior Indy State squad. I think it opens around 6 by the way, b/c Indiana is still a bad team who luckily gets a worse team to start the season at home.
USF vs Elon
not sure if this one will be lined, but think USF pitches the shutout in this one, so would like them at anything less than 30.
Last one on my list is Navy at Temple, as if it is true that Navy brings 30,000 fans to Philly for this one, I definitely like Navy even though Temple should be better than last year (I know that isn't saying much). Thinking this one opens around -27 since Navy should be able to run for about 300+ on Temple, although it might be interesting to see if Temple employs some complexity in their schemes on defense since they will have tons of time to prepare for the Middies rushing attack obviously.
Okay, that's all for now....looking forward to some great cfb discussion with you guys this year. That cbb run we were on this past spring was insane, so here's hoping we can pick right back up where we left off, and we can all make some serious cash this fall.
So, with that said...here are a few random thoughts on some of the week one games that I am interested in looking into further as the summer progresses...
LSU at Miss St
I see this line opening around 21 even though many others are guessing it will be anywhere from 9 to 17. I know this is a huge game for the Bulldogs and it will be under the lights on ESPN, but Miss St just doesn't have the horses to hang with LSU IMO. I see it being something like 35-10 or 42-10, so if I can get LSU with a line in the range that most are predicting, I will definitely consider this as one of my week 1 plays, even though those who know me know that I am pretty much a home fav player for the most part (selectivity is the key as you don't hit 60%+ not being selective on home favs obviously)
Memphis vs Ole Miss
I expect this one to be around Memphis -4 (due to HFA). The recent spreads in this series have been pretty tight, ranging anywhere from pk to 4, and over the course of this rivalry Ole Miss has dominated for the most part, but I lean towards the Tigers at home in this one as Ole Miss is shaping up to have a pretty bad season this year. If I can get a spread at 2.5 or less, Memphis will be considered, but the closeness of this series may cause me to lay off as I am not a big fan of laying cash on rivalry games for the most part.
South C vs ULL
I think this one will open somewhere in the low 30's, maybe -35 at the most b/c of all the hype Spurrier and co. are getting this year. I am not afraid to lay big numbers (again selectively), especially early in the season, because we all know there will be plenty of 40+ pt wins in week 1, just gotta find em. I like SC in this one but would prefer to lay in the 28 range if at all possible.
UF vs WKU
I don't think WKU will score more than 7, if at all, in this one, but not sure how I feel about this one as the spread might end up being too high for me so will wait and see how it shakes out. I think it will open at UF -45, and I think it is entirely possible to see a 59-7, 52-7, 52-0 type of game, but I also see a 49-7 or 45-7, so the opening number will be interesting to me in this one. If it comes out at say -38 or lower, then I will be all over it, but don't think it opens at less than 41.
Wisky vs WSU
I think this one opens at around -17 for the Badgers. This is another one where the opening number will be intriguing to me, b/c they are getting much attention right now, so the number might open light. I love them in this spot at home though, so if it opens at less than 2 TDs, will definitely be worth a look.
UAB at MSU
I think this one opens around -20 for the Spartans. The Blazers are going to be horrible this year, but this game is already on my tentative pass list at the moment, even though this is one that MSU should be able to win going away. MSU isn't going to have many wins this year, but I think they kill UAB in this spot. The only issue I have is that between working out a few week 1 kinks with the new coach/system and the inevitable MSU bonehead mental errors, they could leave the backdoor open for a heartbreaker, so unless the spread is lighter than I expect, will probably end up passing. There will be plenty of opps during the season to fade UAB before the books catch on IMO.
Minny vs BGSU
I expect this one to open at Minny around -21 or so. Man, Minny has made me so much week 1 money it is insane as I have cashed so many times on these guys against piss poor competition, but this just might be the year that they fail to cover against their usual week 1 cupcake. Even with the new coach, scheme, and QB, it is hard to not at least consider Minny in week 1, as those changes may give us a lighter line than normal. Would love to see 14 or less but don't think it will happen, b/c everyone has caught on to past performance, so unfortunately the line may be more inflated than it should.
OU vs NT and Texas vs Arkie State
Both of these are on my radar screen even though I expect these to be huge opening lines. I would not be surprised if OU -41 to -45 was the open, so it looks like I am expecting a bigger open than many around here are. I think the Texas line will open somewhere in the range of -45 but I wouldn't be shocked to see it as high as -52 based on past performance. Even with those high lines, I am still interested in both, believe it or not. Scores like 59-7, 59-0 or 65-7 would not surprise me at all in either game.
Other games I have my eye on are...
Louisville vs Murray State
not sure if we get a line on this one, but if we do, would not be shocked to see it in the 50's, and yes I would still consider the Ville even at something like -52...remember the Temple game last year 62-0
Miami vs Marshall
hoping to get a lighter than expected line b/c of the coaching change but not banking on it. Expecting something like -21 but would love something more reasonable like 17 or less.
Kentucky vs EKU
again, not sure if we get a line or not, but would like Kentucky at anything reasonable, say 35 or less, as they should be able to put up 50 in this one, with that offense.
UNC vs JMU
Love the over in this one as I see both teams scoring 30+ in this matchup as JMU is far from a pushover. Think it could play out like the games we had vs W&M and Furman the last few years, so give me a total of 60 or less and I will definitely consider a play in this one as I will be watching this one online most likely if I can't get out to Chapel Hill this year.
USC vs Idaho
I am not as in love with USC in this one as almost everyone else is as I just think the line will be too high to provide much value. I know USC has studs on 2nd and 3rd string who can score at will against the Vandals once this one gets outta hand, but I just don't like this team laying 45 or more which is where I think it opens, as I would much rather take my chances with teams like OU, Texas, and the Ville when having to lay big numbers like that.
Indiana vs Indy State
With Hoeppner out, I think there will be value in this line if we get one, so if it comes out at anything less than 6, I still like the Hoosiers even with the coaching issue as they will have all summer to work through that, and they will ride the emotion of "doing it for Terry" in week 1 against an inferior Indy State squad. I think it opens around 6 by the way, b/c Indiana is still a bad team who luckily gets a worse team to start the season at home.
USF vs Elon
not sure if this one will be lined, but think USF pitches the shutout in this one, so would like them at anything less than 30.
Last one on my list is Navy at Temple, as if it is true that Navy brings 30,000 fans to Philly for this one, I definitely like Navy even though Temple should be better than last year (I know that isn't saying much). Thinking this one opens around -27 since Navy should be able to run for about 300+ on Temple, although it might be interesting to see if Temple employs some complexity in their schemes on defense since they will have tons of time to prepare for the Middies rushing attack obviously.
Okay, that's all for now....looking forward to some great cfb discussion with you guys this year. That cbb run we were on this past spring was insane, so here's hoping we can pick right back up where we left off, and we can all make some serious cash this fall.