Carolinablue Random Week 1 Thoughts, Line Predictions, etc

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
First, just want to say I appreciate the effort from all the guys on here like Sirwins, Lindetrain, Stacks, and others who have threads going to discuss week 1. Definitely helps pass the time while also getting the discussion flowing, so thanks! Basically the only reason I started this one was b/c I didn't want to hijack their threads with my rambling since my thoughts are more stream of consciousnes rather than analytical at this point.

So, with that said...here are a few random thoughts on some of the week one games that I am interested in looking into further as the summer progresses...

LSU at Miss St

I see this line opening around 21 even though many others are guessing it will be anywhere from 9 to 17. I know this is a huge game for the Bulldogs and it will be under the lights on ESPN, but Miss St just doesn't have the horses to hang with LSU IMO. I see it being something like 35-10 or 42-10, so if I can get LSU with a line in the range that most are predicting, I will definitely consider this as one of my week 1 plays, even though those who know me know that I am pretty much a home fav player for the most part (selectivity is the key as you don't hit 60%+ not being selective on home favs obviously)

Memphis vs Ole Miss

I expect this one to be around Memphis -4 (due to HFA). The recent spreads in this series have been pretty tight, ranging anywhere from pk to 4, and over the course of this rivalry Ole Miss has dominated for the most part, but I lean towards the Tigers at home in this one as Ole Miss is shaping up to have a pretty bad season this year. If I can get a spread at 2.5 or less, Memphis will be considered, but the closeness of this series may cause me to lay off as I am not a big fan of laying cash on rivalry games for the most part.

South C vs ULL

I think this one will open somewhere in the low 30's, maybe -35 at the most b/c of all the hype Spurrier and co. are getting this year. I am not afraid to lay big numbers (again selectively), especially early in the season, because we all know there will be plenty of 40+ pt wins in week 1, just gotta find em. I like SC in this one but would prefer to lay in the 28 range if at all possible.

UF vs WKU

I don't think WKU will score more than 7, if at all, in this one, but not sure how I feel about this one as the spread might end up being too high for me so will wait and see how it shakes out. I think it will open at UF -45, and I think it is entirely possible to see a 59-7, 52-7, 52-0 type of game, but I also see a 49-7 or 45-7, so the opening number will be interesting to me in this one. If it comes out at say -38 or lower, then I will be all over it, but don't think it opens at less than 41.

Wisky vs WSU

I think this one opens at around -17 for the Badgers. This is another one where the opening number will be intriguing to me, b/c they are getting much attention right now, so the number might open light. I love them in this spot at home though, so if it opens at less than 2 TDs, will definitely be worth a look.

UAB at MSU

I think this one opens around -20 for the Spartans. The Blazers are going to be horrible this year, but this game is already on my tentative pass list at the moment, even though this is one that MSU should be able to win going away. MSU isn't going to have many wins this year, but I think they kill UAB in this spot. The only issue I have is that between working out a few week 1 kinks with the new coach/system and the inevitable MSU bonehead mental errors, they could leave the backdoor open for a heartbreaker, so unless the spread is lighter than I expect, will probably end up passing. There will be plenty of opps during the season to fade UAB before the books catch on IMO.

Minny vs BGSU

I expect this one to open at Minny around -21 or so. Man, Minny has made me so much week 1 money it is insane as I have cashed so many times on these guys against piss poor competition, but this just might be the year that they fail to cover against their usual week 1 cupcake. Even with the new coach, scheme, and QB, it is hard to not at least consider Minny in week 1, as those changes may give us a lighter line than normal. Would love to see 14 or less but don't think it will happen, b/c everyone has caught on to past performance, so unfortunately the line may be more inflated than it should.

OU vs NT and Texas vs Arkie State

Both of these are on my radar screen even though I expect these to be huge opening lines. I would not be surprised if OU -41 to -45 was the open, so it looks like I am expecting a bigger open than many around here are. I think the Texas line will open somewhere in the range of -45 but I wouldn't be shocked to see it as high as -52 based on past performance. Even with those high lines, I am still interested in both, believe it or not. Scores like 59-7, 59-0 or 65-7 would not surprise me at all in either game.

Other games I have my eye on are...

Louisville vs Murray State

not sure if we get a line on this one, but if we do, would not be shocked to see it in the 50's, and yes I would still consider the Ville even at something like -52...remember the Temple game last year 62-0

Miami vs Marshall

hoping to get a lighter than expected line b/c of the coaching change but not banking on it. Expecting something like -21 but would love something more reasonable like 17 or less.

Kentucky vs EKU

again, not sure if we get a line or not, but would like Kentucky at anything reasonable, say 35 or less, as they should be able to put up 50 in this one, with that offense.

UNC vs JMU

Love the over in this one as I see both teams scoring 30+ in this matchup as JMU is far from a pushover. Think it could play out like the games we had vs W&M and Furman the last few years, so give me a total of 60 or less and I will definitely consider a play in this one as I will be watching this one online most likely if I can't get out to Chapel Hill this year.

USC vs Idaho

I am not as in love with USC in this one as almost everyone else is as I just think the line will be too high to provide much value. I know USC has studs on 2nd and 3rd string who can score at will against the Vandals once this one gets outta hand, but I just don't like this team laying 45 or more which is where I think it opens, as I would much rather take my chances with teams like OU, Texas, and the Ville when having to lay big numbers like that.

Indiana vs Indy State

With Hoeppner out, I think there will be value in this line if we get one, so if it comes out at anything less than 6, I still like the Hoosiers even with the coaching issue as they will have all summer to work through that, and they will ride the emotion of "doing it for Terry" in week 1 against an inferior Indy State squad. I think it opens around 6 by the way, b/c Indiana is still a bad team who luckily gets a worse team to start the season at home.

USF vs Elon

not sure if this one will be lined, but think USF pitches the shutout in this one, so would like them at anything less than 30.

Last one on my list is Navy at Temple, as if it is true that Navy brings 30,000 fans to Philly for this one, I definitely like Navy even though Temple should be better than last year (I know that isn't saying much). Thinking this one opens around -27 since Navy should be able to run for about 300+ on Temple, although it might be interesting to see if Temple employs some complexity in their schemes on defense since they will have tons of time to prepare for the Middies rushing attack obviously.

Okay, that's all for now....looking forward to some great cfb discussion with you guys this year. That cbb run we were on this past spring was insane, so here's hoping we can pick right back up where we left off, and we can all make some serious cash this fall.
 
carolinablue said:
Wisky vs WSU
I think this one opens at around -17 for the Badgers. This is another one where the opening number will be intriguing to me, b/c they are getting much attention right now, so the number might open light. I love them in this spot at home though, so if it opens at less than 2 TDs, will definitely be worth a look.
Click to expand...

I'm not very familiar with Washington State right now so it's hard for me to discuss the game with any certainty, but it is my opinion that the Badgers are going to be in for a "down" year. I actually think they're going to be pretty decent fade material early in the season until one of their QB's gets the confidence he needs. Like normal, the non conference scheduling is pretty weak, so they should put up a good win/loss record, but I anticipate them to be pretty one dimensional handing off the ball over and over and over. Can also see some stupid passes being made or something that leads to some points, especially in that first game to try to get out of the shadow of past players. I think anything more than 2 TDs I'd have to seriously consider the dog, but like I said I need to look at WSU.
 
no way I lay 17 with a new qb for wisky...

WSU is no joke and the spread will give wisky fits.
 
HUNTDOG said:
no way I lay 17 with a new qb for wisky...

WSU is no joke and the spread will give wisky fits.
Click to expand...


Fondy and Hunt,

Completely hear what you are saying. My guess on the open was 17 but I wouldn't even consider giving Wisky a look unless it was under 2 TDs. Again, just my early random thoughts as I think some lines might set up for solid value based on the spots certain teams are in, and Wisky could be one of em as I think they are 2 TDs better than WSU but b/c of the offensive uncertainty, we might get a light line which might spell value.

Thanks for the feedback, that's what this is all about!
 
I understand CB, Brink is no joke for SU though and when a seniro qb gets more than 2 td's against a 1st time starter I think the value is in the dog, but that's just me.
 
I sure hope we get Florida at 41, CB, but I was figuring that number would be more like 48...at 41 or lower, I'll definitely be playing Florida-WKU sounds like they could be one of the worst teams in college football history.

I'll be back a little later with some more thoughts on this stuff...I love taking the big favorites week 1, but I haven't thought it over quite yet...
 
Texas will be a play for me no matter the line. Texas kills its opening opponents and I expect Mack to throw alot with the second team QB to get him some game minutes. Last year after the Mccoy injury, Texas tanked and Brown admitted he should've played Snead alot more.

Snead is no longer there but both freshman Chiles and Harris are studs who need to see the field.
 
Thanks for the input Seabass and Horn. Always great to talk cfb with both of you guys, especially this early on.

Bass - I actually am guessing UF -45 but I put that I was hoping for 41, so we are pretty close on what we think with regard to the open.

Horn - I pretty much agree with you on UT as I would probably take that up to -52.

Good discussion, thanks!
 
I think TCU is one team I'll be laying the chalk with at anything less than -17. The books will have a tough time scaring me off of that one.

I'm feeling Kansas State, assuming I get 9 or more. I think Auburn is going to shit the bed ATS this year, and have a great feeling KSU takes this one down to the wire. Also will be interested in the Oklahoma State/Georgia Over if I can get it around 45.

Obviously you didn't mention any of those games, but just some thoughts...glad to hear from you.
 
carolinablue said:
First, just want to say I appreciate the effort from all the guys on here like Sirwins, Lindetrain, Stacks, and others who have threads going to discuss week 1. Definitely helps pass the time while also getting the discussion flowing, so thanks! Basically the only reason I started this one was b/c I didn't want to hijack their threads with my rambling since my thoughts are more stream of consciousnes rather than analytical at this point.

So, with that said...here are a few random thoughts on some of the week one games that I am interested in looking into further as the summer progresses...

LSU at Miss St

I see this line opening around 21 even though many others are guessing it will be anywhere from 9 to 17. I know this is a huge game for the Bulldogs and it will be under the lights on ESPN, but Miss St just doesn't have the horses to hang with LSU IMO. I see it being something like 35-10 or 42-10, so if I can get LSU with a line in the range that most are predicting, I will definitely consider this as one of my week 1 plays, even though those who know me know that I am pretty much a home fav player for the most part (selectivity is the key as you don't hit 60%+ not being selective on home favs obviously)

Memphis vs Ole Miss

I expect this one to be around Memphis -4 (due to HFA). The recent spreads in this series have been pretty tight, ranging anywhere from pk to 4, and over the course of this rivalry Ole Miss has dominated for the most part, but I lean towards the Tigers at home in this one as Ole Miss is shaping up to have a pretty bad season this year. If I can get a spread at 2.5 or less, Memphis will be considered, but the closeness of this series may cause me to lay off as I am not a big fan of laying cash on rivalry games for the most part.

South C vs ULL

I think this one will open somewhere in the low 30's, maybe -35 at the most b/c of all the hype Spurrier and co. are getting this year. I am not afraid to lay big numbers (again selectively), especially early in the season, because we all know there will be plenty of 40+ pt wins in week 1, just gotta find em. I like SC in this one but would prefer to lay in the 28 range if at all possible.

UF vs WKU

I don't think WKU will score more than 7, if at all, in this one, but not sure how I feel about this one as the spread might end up being too high for me so will wait and see how it shakes out. I think it will open at UF -45, and I think it is entirely possible to see a 59-7, 52-7, 52-0 type of game, but I also see a 49-7 or 45-7, so the opening number will be interesting to me in this one. If it comes out at say -38 or lower, then I will be all over it, but don't think it opens at less than 41.

Wisky vs WSU

I think this one opens at around -17 for the Badgers. This is another one where the opening number will be intriguing to me, b/c they are getting much attention right now, so the number might open light. I love them in this spot at home though, so if it opens at less than 2 TDs, will definitely be worth a look.

UAB at MSU

I think this one opens around -20 for the Spartans. The Blazers are going to be horrible this year, but this game is already on my tentative pass list at the moment, even though this is one that MSU should be able to win going away. MSU isn't going to have many wins this year, but I think they kill UAB in this spot. The only issue I have is that between working out a few week 1 kinks with the new coach/system and the inevitable MSU bonehead mental errors, they could leave the backdoor open for a heartbreaker, so unless the spread is lighter than I expect, will probably end up passing. There will be plenty of opps during the season to fade UAB before the books catch on IMO.

Minny vs BGSU

I expect this one to open at Minny around -21 or so. Man, Minny has made me so much week 1 money it is insane as I have cashed so many times on these guys against piss poor competition, but this just might be the year that they fail to cover against their usual week 1 cupcake. Even with the new coach, scheme, and QB, it is hard to not at least consider Minny in week 1, as those changes may give us a lighter line than normal. Would love to see 14 or less but don't think it will happen, b/c everyone has caught on to past performance, so unfortunately the line may be more inflated than it should.

OU vs NT and Texas vs Arkie State

Both of these are on my radar screen even though I expect these to be huge opening lines. I would not be surprised if OU -41 to -45 was the open, so it looks like I am expecting a bigger open than many around here are. I think the Texas line will open somewhere in the range of -45 but I wouldn't be shocked to see it as high as -52 based on past performance. Even with those high lines, I am still interested in both, believe it or not. Scores like 59-7, 59-0 or 65-7 would not surprise me at all in either game.

Other games I have my eye on are...

Louisville vs Murray State

not sure if we get a line on this one, but if we do, would not be shocked to see it in the 50's, and yes I would still consider the Ville even at something like -52...remember the Temple game last year 62-0

Miami vs Marshall

hoping to get a lighter than expected line b/c of the coaching change but not banking on it. Expecting something like -21 but would love something more reasonable like 17 or less.

Kentucky vs EKU

again, not sure if we get a line or not, but would like Kentucky at anything reasonable, say 35 or less, as they should be able to put up 50 in this one, with that offense.

UNC vs JMU

Love the over in this one as I see both teams scoring 30+ in this matchup as JMU is far from a pushover. Think it could play out like the games we had vs W&M and Furman the last few years, so give me a total of 60 or less and I will definitely consider a play in this one as I will be watching this one online most likely if I can't get out to Chapel Hill this year.

USC vs Idaho

I am not as in love with USC in this one as almost everyone else is as I just think the line will be too high to provide much value. I know USC has studs on 2nd and 3rd string who can score at will against the Vandals once this one gets outta hand, but I just don't like this team laying 45 or more which is where I think it opens, as I would much rather take my chances with teams like OU, Texas, and the Ville when having to lay big numbers like that.

Indiana vs Indy State

With Hoeppner out, I think there will be value in this line if we get one, so if it comes out at anything less than 6, I still like the Hoosiers even with the coaching issue as they will have all summer to work through that, and they will ride the emotion of "doing it for Terry" in week 1 against an inferior Indy State squad. I think it opens around 6 by the way, b/c Indiana is still a bad team who luckily gets a worse team to start the season at home.

USF vs Elon

not sure if this one will be lined, but think USF pitches the shutout in this one, so would like them at anything less than 30.

Last one on my list is Navy at Temple, as if it is true that Navy brings 30,000 fans to Philly for this one, I definitely like Navy even though Temple should be better than last year (I know that isn't saying much). Thinking this one opens around -27 since Navy should be able to run for about 300+ on Temple, although it might be interesting to see if Temple employs some complexity in their schemes on defense since they will have tons of time to prepare for the Middies rushing attack obviously.

Okay, that's all for now....looking forward to some great cfb discussion with you guys this year. That cbb run we were on this past spring was insane, so here's hoping we can pick right back up where we left off, and we can all make some serious cash this fall.
Click to expand...


sa,me thoughts on lsu, minny. i wouldn'ty look at ou they never blow anyone out by 35+. other that lots of chalk and i will stay away from those for the most part. i really like kentucky as well. will be interested in overs and team totals as well. tex is good fro atleast 49 and usc is as well. will chat more later good work bro
 
Stacks - Thanks for the response. You know how I love the chalk buddy, and thankfully I have made a very successful career out of playing favs even though most stay far away from em. I know I am borderline insane (remember that run during cbb where I played something like 40 favs in a row and went 32-8 or something crazy like that), but for me it is all about picking my spots and knowing my strengths. You, Gar, Matador, and others are awesome when it comes to the dogs, so I have no problem leaving them to the experts b/c you guys are definitely who I look to when it comes to dog plays. Best of luck this season!
 
FYI - Matchbook just told me that they plan to have week 1 lines up sometime between 7/24-7/31, while WSEX said they won't be posting theirs until 8/16 at the earliest. Just a heads up for those that were wondering.
 
carolinablue said:
Stacks - Thanks for the response. You know how I love the chalk buddy, and thankfully I have made a very successful career out of playing favs even though most stay far away from em. I know I am borderline insane (remember that run during cbb where I played something like 40 favs in a row and went 32-8 or something crazy like that), but for me it is all about picking my spots and knowing my strengths. You, Gar, Matador, and others are awesome when it comes to the dogs, so I have no problem leaving them to the experts b/c you guys are definitely who I look to when it comes to dog plays. Best of luck this season!
Click to expand...

i am a huge favs player actually in every sport as you know in ncaab. same for football. but i do have a knack for picking 1 or 2 dogs a week for sure. i just don't like to lay 40+ points unless its texas,usc or lsu hahaha. chalk is the best but i'm saying it would be hard to lay 48+ or even in the 50's. gimme lsu,texas all year in 1h and game though for sure.
 
Stacks - This year I am going with Matchbook, WSEX, and The Greek. I haven't deposited into any of them yet (took out all my cbb winnings from the greek and didn't leave anything in) as I will decide how to split up my money based on when each book puts out their opening lines each week. Since I am a huge opening line player, I want most of my money in the book that releases lines the earliest (Sunday afternoon/evening) vs later in the week, but not sure which of the three will be the best when it comes to early lines at this point.
 
Have some free time on my hands, so figured I would add a few more thoughts in the thread...

Rutgers vs Buffalo

Think this one will open at around 27 or so, and I actually lean Buffalo here as I think Turner Gill will continue to move this team in the right direction in '07. Buffalo treated me really well ATS last year as they made me some big money in games where no one thought they had a chance (remember that +41 call at Auburn where many thought I had officially gone insane haha - they covered that one losing 7-38 by the way).

Rutgers isn't one of those teams who historically blows poor competition out (just seem to do enough to win against teams they should destroy - see last 2 years vs Buffalo, UConn, etc), while Buffalo has a way of hanging around (see Wisky, BGSU, NIU, Aub LY - was a huge dog in each and covered all 4), so that is the combination I look for when picking my spots on big dogs. I also expect both teams to rely heavily on the run in this game, with both QBs focusing more on a short range passing attack to build confidence for later in the season, as neither has proven they can lead their teams on the strength of their arm alone.

This means more time off the clock and less opportunity for a runaway blowout type of game because the tempo will be more about long Rutgers drives rather than quick strike type of scores, although I expect RU to get a big 50+ yd breakaway rushing score against the UB defense.

Lastly, Rutgers has the Middies coming to town in week 2, so they may have at least some of their attention focused against that one since Navy is always a tricky matchup for most, and I am sure mentally Rutgers already has Buffalo penciled in as a W, whether they admit it or not. Not in love with this game or anything, but definitely have it down as one to watch depending on the line, as I would love to get the Bulls at anything above 4 TDs in this one.
 
Last edited:
More thoughts on games I previously referenced above in my first post...

Texas vs Arkie State -

At this point, I think I would take Texas at anything less than 49 as they just know how to take care of business vs inferior opponents. 49, 57, 65, 59 were the margins of victory vs the last 4 overmatched opponents they faced to kickoff the season since 2003. I don't see how Arkie State gets more than 7, and I also don't see how Texas gets less than 56, hence the 49 point margin of error I am currently considering. What am I missing here guys? Texas has TCU at home in week 2, so no major scheduling issue to consider like the OU vs Miami week 2 situation (although I know TCU is a tricky one). Completely open to hearing the other side of the argument on this one.

Oklahoma vs North Texas

The more I look into this one, the more I tend to shy away from risking jumping on the Sooners in the opener as the line will probably be too large for me to see any value here. My fear here is that the Sooners come out a little shaky as they get the offense figured out, and as a result the game ends up being something like 31-10. North Texas will be playing that spread offense and will probably take a bunch of chances, which typically means a ton of mistakes, but at least one garbage score due to a blown coverage play.

Curious to hear thoughts on this one with regard to either side as right now I am leaning no play unless the spread is under 25, but I don't expect it to be that low, although I wouldn't be shocked at a -31 due to the QB situation. And if all that isn't enough, the Sooners have the Canes coming to town in week 2. The more I look at this matchup, the more I am thinking about laying off as signs just don't point to a huge blowout, but open to thoughts on this one.

USC vs Idaho

I just don't see Idaho scoring at all in this one, but the problem I have with this one is the fact that the spread may be out of this world because everyone and their mother has USC already penciled in the title game. Value is a big thing with me and I just don't know if there will be any value taking a USC team that could potentially be a 50+ point favorite in this one, as the backups could be in by the 2nd quarter, as the Trojans have a long hard season ahead of them, and they won't need to run up the score as they will already be #1 and the only way they will lose that is by dropping a game, not because they don't win by "enough". No way I would ever take the Vandals as this one could be 28-0 in the 1st quarter, so maybe the first half is a better play in this one, who knows. Interested in thoughts on this one as well.

S Carolina vs ULL

I noted above how I really like SC in this matchup as this might just be the year that Spurrier's boys breakthrough, but man, just not sure if it will be worth the risk on what will surely be a huge spread with all the hype going around SC this season. I am convinced that SC can cover a huge spread similar to how they demolished the Rattlers by 39 LY, but my fear is that the scheduling spot makes this one a little more tricky than it might normally be. With a trip to Georgia in Week 2 meaning that the starters may be rested sometime in the 3Q in this one if the game is as lopsided as I expect it to be, the backdoor might be open in this ULL matchup, so that is really my only fear in this game.

I usually nail heavy favs at a crazy clip the first weekend, so that is why I am asking about these games, and also why you see many of the big fav games in my original posts. Everyone is different obviously, but this has worked wonders for my bankroll the last few years, so not gonna fix it if it ain't broke! Looking forward to hearing the thoughts of you guys on these and others.
 
Last edited:
I don't like anything on Friday 8/31 or Monday 9/3 by the way. At least not after researching all the games on the schedule. Obviously all of my views depend on the opening lines, but right now I just don't see a true edge either way on any of these matchups, so not feelin any of the games at all. The only one that might pique my interest is Navy at Temple in Philly on 8/31, but I think the line might open too high to give me any Navy value, and I am definitely not gonna play Temple.
 
Carolina - two things that jumped out to me (possibly) would be UNDER anything in the Miami/Marshall game (Miami's D will be sick again this year and their Offense may very well be suspect again) if a total is out. Secondly, I believe Kentucky is going to be a nice team to follow this year in relation to the line. Hoping they do not get alot of respect as I believe this team will be very, very competitive this year. Oh yeah, Wiscy will be very nice (should be) this year as well...my pick to win the Big 10.

Peace!
 
Last edited:
carolinablue said:
S Carolina vs ULL

I noted above how I really like SC in this matchup as this might just be the year that Spurrier's boys breakthrough, but man, just not sure if it will be worth the risk on what will surely be a huge spread with all the hype going around SC this season. I am convinced that SC can cover a huge spread similar to how they demolished the Rattlers by 39 LY, but my fear is that the scheduling spot makes this one a little more tricky than it might normally be. With a trip to Georgia in Week 2 meaning that the starters may be rested sometime in the 3Q in this one if the game is as lopsided as I expect it to be, the backdoor might be open in this ULL matchup, so that is really my only fear in this game.

.
Click to expand...

Whats up CB!

I just graduated from SC and have a pretty good feel for them as a team, will be looking to bet everyone of their games this yr. I would imagine a line like -28 or so and will look to pound the first half to avoid any bullshit at the end of the game. Spurrier will demolish this team if possible but you bring up a good point about the UGA game. The passing game will prob remain 20yrd and under in thsi game and SC will give ULL a heavy dose of Cory Boyd/Mike Davis but the defense should keep them from scoring anything meaningful. I don't have my Phil Steele copy but didnt ULL lose ALOT of players? SC defense might pitch a shutouit first half so thats why I will look to bang that line.
 
Mags said:
Carolina - two things that jumped out to me (possibly) would be UNDER anyhting in the Miami/Marshall game (Miami's D will be sick again ths year and their may very well be suspect again) if a total is out. Secondly, I believe Kentucky is going to be a nice team to follow this year in relation to the line. Hoping they do not get alot of respect as I believe this team will be very, very competitive this year. Oh yeah, Wiscy will be very nice (should be) this year as well...my pick to win the Big 10.

Peace!
Click to expand...


Thanks for the post Mags, good stuff. I will be the first to admit that I suck at totals, hence the reason you will probably see me play less than 2 a year if that. I agree about Kentucky and Wisky by the way, as those are two that may be a little under the radar to start the season, especially Wisky. Can't wait to see the opening lines hit on all the week 1 action. Best of luck this year!
 
TroyStacks said:
tex and usc both 1h no matter the line maybe even 1q play as well
Click to expand...

Stacks - I agree with the 1H assessment on both. I don't think I have ever played a 1Q line though and not sure I would risk it here even though both would be solid. My biggest fear is that something stupid would happen to give the opposition a freak score and then the play is doomed from the start, whereas at least the 1H play gives more time for talent to win out.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Whats up CB!

I just graduated from SC and have a pretty good feel for them as a team, will be looking to bet everyone of their games this yr. I would imagine a line like -28 or so and will look to pound the first half to avoid any bullshit at the end of the game. Spurrier will demolish this team if possible but you bring up a good point about the UGA game. The passing game will prob remain 20yrd and under in thsi game and SC will give ULL a heavy dose of Cory Boyd/Mike Davis but the defense should keep them from scoring anything meaningful. I don't have my Phil Steele copy but didnt ULL lose ALOT of players? SC defense might pitch a shutouit first half so thats why I will look to bang that line.
Click to expand...

Green - Congrats on the graduation! I am really interested in seeing where this line opens at as I would like a 28 or lower but wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 31 range on this one. ULL is supposed to be a mess this year, so this is a great opener for SC, especially with the dawgs looming in week 2. I may have to check out the first half line when it comes out as that may actually be better value, so thanks for the heads up. Looking forward to talking cfb with ya this year, although I am not sure how we can follow up that insane cbb run we both had this past year, but I sure as hell am gonna try!
 
carolinablue said:
Green - Congrats on the graduation! I am really interested in seeing where this line opens at as I would like a 28 or lower but wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 31 range on this one. ULL is supposed to be a mess this year, so this is a great opener for SC, especially with the dawgs looming in week 2. I may have to check out the first half line when it comes out as that may actually be better value, so thanks for the heads up. Looking forward to talking cfb with ya this year, although I am not sure how we can follow up that insane cbb run we both had this past year, but I sure as hell am gonna try!
Click to expand...

Thanks CB.. Ahh I cant wait for CFB to get here and even more I can't wait for UGA in Wk 2 but that is another story. The run in CBB was great, haha, it would be incredible if we could duplicate that.

You have a guess on the ND-GT line.. ND -3? I think GT wins outright
 
CB -

You are going to get around -14 or less on Minnesota, I'm almost sure of that...unless the books decide BGSU is going to absolutely horrible again.

Right now, I have this line at Minnesota -8...no joke. From what I've been looking at, I think Bowling Green will be one of the nation's most improved teams, and could quite possibly win the MAC East. I would be awfully cautious of betting against them at a big price. If I get more than a FG difference from that line, which my power ratings produced, I'll be on it. And I'm almost sure it will be atleast +11.

How is Minnesota going to blow a team out in their first game in the newly-installed spread offense, with a shitty QB and no major threats at WR? Bowling Green returns all 4 starters from a secondary that helped produce a pass D ranking of 22nd nationally last year as well. They also return all their key weapons on offense and face a pathetic Minnesota D.

I'll be all over BGSU once I get double digits...
 
lindetrain said:
CB -

You are going to get around -14 or less on Minnesota, I'm almost sure of that...unless the books decide BGSU is going to absolutely horrible again.

Right now, I have this line at Minnesota -8...no joke. From what I've been looking at, I think Bowling Green will be one of the nation's most improved teams, and could quite possibly win the MAC East. I would be awfully cautious of betting against them at a big price. If I get more than a FG difference from that line, which my power ratings produced, I'll be on it. And I'm almost sure it will be atleast +11.

How is Minnesota going to blow a team out in their first game in the newly-installed spread offense, with a shitty QB and no major threats at WR? Bowling Green returns all 4 starters from a secondary that helped produce a pass D ranking of 22nd nationally last year as well. They also return all their key weapons on offense and face a pathetic Minnesota D.

I'll be all over BGSU once I get double digits...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the solid insight Lindetrain. You know I always appreciate opposing viewpoints, so your post was definitely welcomed. I have tons more research to do on all the games above, so needless to say my initial leans could change more than once, but I will definitely keep your points in mind as I look deeper into that one. Thanks again buddy.
 
TroyStacks said:
btw what books are you using again
Click to expand...

Stacks - I just added 5dimes to the list as well, as they might be my best resource for lines on those really obscure under the radar games I like, especially the I-AA ones. Haven't funded any of my books yet though as I need to figure out how I am gonna split my bankroll between them.

Since I am an early lines and under the radar game type of player, Matchbook won't necessarily be as beneficial to me as it will be to others, so I might be stuck with the 110 everyone else offers, since I am not sure how the Matchbook model will work with how I do things.

Also concerned that I might not get my plays matched on the type of games I like, as my assumption is that more money goes down on the bigger games of course, whereas my under the radar plays might not get matched, so not sure if it is worth the hassle or not, but we'll see how the first week looks.

Right now will probably use 5dimes for the obscure games and some combination of the Greek and WSEX for early lines, although I honestly don't know who will lead this year since I never really considered either of these two great for early players like me. Matchbook I will probably save for select games that I decide on later in the week where the early line isn't as crucial for me. Again, just trying to sort through everything now before I put the bankroll in next month.
 
lindetrain said:
CB -

You are going to get around -14 or less on Minnesota, I'm almost sure of that...unless the books decide BGSU is going to absolutely horrible again.

Right now, I have this line at Minnesota -8...no joke. From what I've been looking at, I think Bowling Green will be one of the nation's most improved teams, and could quite possibly win the MAC East. I would be awfully cautious of betting against them at a big price. If I get more than a FG difference from that line, which my power ratings produced, I'll be on it. And I'm almost sure it will be atleast +11.

How is Minnesota going to blow a team out in their first game in the newly-installed spread offense, with a shitty QB and no major threats at WR? Bowling Green returns all 4 starters from a secondary that helped produce a pass D ranking of 22nd nationally last year as well. They also return all their key weapons on offense and face a pathetic Minnesota D.

I'll be all over BGSU once I get double digits...
Click to expand...

Linde - Always enjoy reading your posts as you definitely know your stuff. The big reason I lean Minny here has nothing to do with their passing game though, as I think they will run the back about 40+ times and rack up around 250+ against BGSU in the opener. They have just about their entire OL returning and I think they will push BGSU around and open up some nice holes resulting in a solid 5ypc or so in this one. This will allow the passing game to focus on the short game for the most part, in order to build confidence, but I fully expect them to hit a couple big plays as BGSU stacks the line to try and contain the run.

I know Minny's D was bad but with 10 starters back, they should be able to show some improvement this year. I think they will do better than expected in this one as many aren't giving them a lot of respect but it's not like they lost anything more than an average QB at best IMO.

I think they take this one by at least 17, which is why the opening line will be a crucial factor for me in deciding whether or not to make it a play. If I do get around 10, then it definitely will be a serious one to consider for me. Either way, appreciate the insight. I am just getting started, so I am sure you are way ahead of me in terms of research, so keep the discussion going!
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Thanks CB.. Ahh I cant wait for CFB to get here and even more I can't wait for UGA in Wk 2 but that is another story. The run in CBB was great, haha, it would be incredible if we could duplicate that.

You have a guess on the ND-GT line.. ND -3? I think GT wins outright
Click to expand...

Green - That game was pretty much crossed off the list by me as soon as I saw it on the schedule. In order to allow me to focus on matchups that I have the best feel for, every week I go through the schedule and eliminate between 10-50% of the games right off the bat, for a number of different reasons, and this was one of em. What this means is I don't even look at the game or the line so can't offer much help there. I do this for a lot of the marquee matchups by the way and it has worked well for me in the past as there are just too many games to analyze each week so gotta narrow down the list from the start or else my research and thought process suffers, but that's just me. Later!
 
Stacks - Been thinking a lot about how to breakout my bankroll for the year and here is how I will probably start out...

I will probably put the majority of my cash (60-70%) into Olympic via either DC or BW so I can try and jump on the early lines since they historically release week 1 earlier than the other books on my list. Plus, I can always move cash from Olympic to Matchbook or WSEX by doing a transfer as needed. I know everyone is all over matchbook, but I need to wait and see if my under the radar games will get enough cash generated on them to match my plays as my strategy doesn't mesh with having to wait till gameday potentially before I know if a play is a go or not as I play even units across the entire card, and getting a play only partially matched would screw with my money mgmt system to some extent.

In terms of my remaining bankroll, I will probably put 30-40% (not sure yet) into 5dimes via EWE, so that I can jump on some of the week 1 matchups between I-A and I-AA that don't get listed at Olympic. 5dimes won't have lines up till 8/22 they said, so I will have time to go through and lock my plays at Olympic and note the A vs AA matchups that aren't listed and get money into 5dimes to get on those games when they are released. Won't really use 5dimes for anything else other than the small time matchups that aren't lined anywhere else, but think it is worth it to have some cash in there so I can jump on some of the games that others won't be able to get down on.

Will probably not have anything in MB or WSEX at the start, but will do book transfers into them as needed.
 
good stuff i think i will just stick with betcris and maybe a little in olympic....who was the guy who murdered 1-aa last year i need to be on the lookout for him this year i actually watched some of the games just to have a little input on his thread......
 
CarolinaBlue,

I noticed in your early assement of the Minn/BG game that you mentioned you had past success in their opening first games. You certainy did very well as I noticed they won and covered the past five years. But these were under Coach Mason and their 1st yr Coach Brewer was not involved. Do you use those trends when they were accomplished under another coach? I usually don't tend to give them much value unless the coach was an assistant ala Boise St, which is a different case. What is your opinion on this?
 
I guess I should have posted my question to you other handicappers as well, "Do you use other coach's stats when you look at past history or do you disregard them?" I would also be interested what others think about that.
 
Observer - First, welcome to the forum, definitely a nice start as you bring up a solid point right off the bat. With regard to the coaching situation at Minny, I did take it into consideration when I did my first run through on that game, but here is my take on the impact it will have....

With Minny's move to a new spread offense, the defense with its 10 returning starters was way ahead of them in spring practice, which makes perfect sense of course. The offense has a lot of new guys on top of trying to learn the new scheme, so the learning curve will take a while. As a result, I think that Minny will really leverage Pinnix and the running game the first few games (BGSU, M OH, FAU) so that they can work out the kinks in the passing attack and give their QBs some confidence early on.

Eight of the top 10 OL is back so I expect the running game to be more emphasized early on even though they will technically be under a spread offense. Over time, I expect them to open things up more, especially as they enter Big 10 play, because by then their young QBs and WRs will be more comfortable in the system.

Therefore, my take is that early on this team will have more similarities than differences to the Glen Mason coached teams but Brewster will put his stamp on the team as the season progresses. Hope that helps, and again welcome to the forum.
 
"With Minny's move to a new spread offense, the defense with its 10 returning starters was way ahead of them in spring practice, which makes perfect sense of course. The offense has a lot of new guys on top of trying to learn the new scheme, so the learning curve will take a while. As a result, I think that Minny will really leverage Pinnix and the running game the first few games (BGSU, M OH, FAU) so that they can work out the kinks in the passing attack and give their QBs some confidence early on."

Carolina,

Thank you for the welcome and your solid input. What you said made a lot of sense, as I didn't notice all the starters back on defense, I was only noticing they have a new system and qb. I usually like to try to go against new coaches and qbs early before they get in sync. I prefer them giving dd at home and not getting dd on the road.

You must be a real genius to be so selective that you are successful playing favorites. I've never met or known anyone that could do that and I have been in Reno since 1982, so that is impressive! I am just the opposite as I look for "live" dogs at +6 and up. However, Football is not my best sport as I like college baskets better and I can still be taught.

:tiphat:I'll be keeping my eye on you!:cheers:
 
Observer - Yeah its kinda funny because the guys here always give me a hard time in a good natured sort of way because of all the favs I play. In cbb I played something like 36 in a row and was 28-8 documented during that run so hey if it ain't broke don't fix it ya know. I actually don't think I played a dog for about 2 months straight towards the end of the season and I made a ton of money in baskets as these guys can attest to, but you are right in that I am very selective in my plays as most of the time in baskets I usually had only between 1-3 plays with many no play days mixed in because I don't like to force things.

Football is a little different, but I am still a huge fav player there, but doubt I will do the 36 in a row thing again because football is a different beast to say the least. Just remember that every weekend at least 10+ favs usually cover with no problem whatsoever, and thankfully I have had a nice run the past few years of finding at least 6 out of the 10 every Saturday week in and week out. The trick of course is just finding those needles in the proverbial haystack, which of course is easier said than done! Looking forward to some good discussions with ya this year!
 
Stacks - Wait till you see the 14 games I am currently focused against for week 1. All home favs and the lowest projected spread is -6 for my lines. I plan on bathing in so much chalk opening weekend it will be insane haha.
 
Quick question for you matchbook afficianados out there...

Does anyone know if they will be offering lines on all the college football week 1 games or just the division 1-a matchups? I would love to just use the greek and matchbook all season without having to bother funding 5 dimes as well, but the only reason I am considering 5 dimes is because I don't know of anywhere else that will have those tasty week 1 matchups like USF vs Elon and Kentucky vs EKU and AF vs SCSU, etc etc. Since I was always a longtime Pinny and Greek player for the most part, any insight you guys can provide on whether I will be able to get lines and matched wagers on matchbook for the 1-A vs 1-AA games would be greatly appreciated.

Just found out this evening that I am having a boy by the way! I just ordered him a UNC outfit to get him started early even though he won't be here for another 5 months haha.
 
I have been at every opening Texas game since graduating in 2002 and they have been blood baths. The Horns will roll again. I will probably play the game and 1H over as well.
 
originally like south carolina becuase spurrier likes to get that cover for alums much like tressel at ohio state.

texas i like in this spot as well.

LSU, i don't think i would lay the wood even if i got -21 because Les Miles has a tremendous amount of class and will put 3rd stringers in there so he dosen't run up the score.

Like the over in the UNC game as well.

good health
 
CB -

Good to see ya, man, some very nice thoughts in this thread. Wanted to give an opposing viewpoint, and maybe turn you on to another game that is high on my list.

As for Ole Miss/Memphis, I really think getting up to 4 points with Ole Miss is going to be hard to pass up. As you pointed out, Ole Miss has dominated this series, although all of the games are pretty close. I remember having -3 last year, and we lead the entire game, until a last second drive ended up pushing my bet. It just seems to me that Memphis doesn't have any playmakers to be deserving of laying over a FG. Ole Miss has BenJarvus Green-Ellis returning, who can certainly run over some folks, and fuckin Orgeron has finally passed the keys to the defense over to veteran defensive coach John Thompson. Although the secondary is young, the defensive line might be the strongest we have seen in a while. As we all know, P. Willy is a HUGE loss to the defense, so we'll see if someone steps up in that department. Also, remember that if Oregeron doesn't produce a winning season, he is going to be saying sayonara to Oxford.

As for Memphis, I just don't see them improving much. They have never recovered from the loss of their all star, DeAngelo Williams. Remember, this team was 2-10 last year. There is no cohesiveness in the defense, the Tigers started something like 10 different players in the secondary. And although there is some talent on the offense in WR's Robinzine, Williams, and Calhoun, I just don't see much changing from last year. Maybe the new offensive coordinator Clay Helton can get something going.

All in all, I just see the Rebels moving in a better direction than the Tigers, for some reason. Love to hear your thoughts on this.

Another game I think you should look at is Cal @ Tennessee. Cal is going to be a formidable force this year, winning at least 10 games. They're returning a bunch of talent and should be able to shred the Tennessee secondary, who is young and inexperienced. Anything less than 6 is a steal in this game, IMO.

Good luck bro, and look forward to hearing from you this Fall. :shake:
 
carolinablue said:
Oklahoma vs North Texas

The more I look into this one, the more I tend to shy away from risking jumping on the Sooners in the opener as the line will probably be too large for me to see any value here. My fear here is that the Sooners come out a little shaky as they get the offense figured out, and as a result the game ends up being something like 31-10. North Texas will be playing that spread offense and will probably take a bunch of chances, which typically means a ton of mistakes, but at least one garbage score due to a blown coverage play.

Curious to hear thoughts on this one with regard to either side as right now I am leaning no play unless the spread is under 25, but I don't expect it to be that low, although I wouldn't be shocked at a -31 due to the QB situation. And if all that isn't enough, the Sooners have the Canes coming to town in week 2. The more I look at this matchup, the more I am thinking about laying off as signs just don't point to a huge blowout, but open to thoughts on this one.
Click to expand...

It should be exciting in Denton , as the Todd Dodge era starts. After winning multiple state titles at Southlake Carroll. Three in a row including last year. Was a bit surprised he left, since Riley will be a senior this yr at Carroll, but I'm sure Todd saw his chance to move.....thus starting his progression to replace Mack at TU some day. Emotion will definitely play a good part at the beginning, but not sure UNT has enough talent in this first yr. I haven't looked at what they have ,yet. Still enjoying the summer.
I don't know if Mendoza went with him, the DC at Carroll.....that could beneficial.
I haven't looked since about December, after the state game.
I'll try to catch up in the future......
GL

Press
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B.A.R.
Summer CFB Discussion-- Texas RBs dropping like flies
2 3
Replies
109
Views
3K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
gps_3
SEC Week 0/1
Replies
35
Views
2K
gps_3
gps_3
bones
Bet the Board Bowls with Brad Powers
Replies
8
Views
738
bones
bones
BenchCoach
BenchCoach XIII
Replies
21
Views
1K
BenchCoach
BenchCoach
2daBank
2dB bowl ramblings, props, and plays
2
Replies
62
Views
1K
KJ
KJ
Back
Top