Career Offensive Line Starts Differential (Weeks 0 & 1)

[Jimmydafreak]

Using Phil Steele’s “Career Returning O-line Starts,” I compiled what we really need from it: Who has the advantage based on a given matchup. I charted all 46 games. For example, Wisconsin has 150 returning starts and Western Kentucky has just 18, so the Badgers are +132 starts. The team that has the starts advantage is listed first.

I absolutely love this stat for handicapping games the first couple of weeks of the season, because it gives me a good idea of who will control the line of scrimmage. There are some powerhouse teams that are immune from such stats, because they are so talented, they will dominate the line of scrimmage regardless. But for the most part, this stat proves itself year in, and year out. Let’s see how all the +40 or better teams fare versus the spread in week one. I bet they hit at least 70%.

I really use it more to eliminate games, or to confirm games that I already have an interest in. This year I’m going to bet one game soley off this stat, and that is Wisconsin -34. They’re going to smash WKU in the trenches. This one should get ugly.

My favorite game of the week checks in at #3 on the list with a +74. No way he Bulldogs don’t win this by at least two TDs.

These stats don’t include such things as injuries or suspensions, etc., so feel free to adjust as necessary.

Another special circumstance is that a few teams play twice. So are you going to credit NMSU an extra +5 for their matchup against Minnesota?

I will be posting plays in the next few days.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

1. +132 Wisconsin vs. Western Kentucky

2. +75 Wyoming vs. Washington St.

3. +74 Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama

4. +71 Boston College vs. UMass

5. +68 Northern Illinois @ Iowa

6. +67 Houston @ Rice

7. +62 Arizona St. vs. UTSA

8. +57 Washington vs. Auburn

9. +57 Cal vs. North Carolina

10. +48 Oregon vs. Bowling Green

11. +43 Wyoming @ New Mexico St.

12. +40 Wake Forest @ Tulane

13. +39 Florida St. vs. Virginia Tech

14. +38 Stanford vs. San Diego St.

15. +34 UCLA vs. Cincinnati

16. +33 North Texas vs. SMU

17. +29 Penn St. vs. Appalachian St.

18. +29 Oklahoma vs. Florida Atlantic

19. +27 Illinois vs. Kent St.

20. +24 Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

21. +24 Alabama vs. Louisville

22. +23 Troy vs. Boise State

23. +23 Colorado vs. Colorado St.

24. +22 UCF @ UConn

25. +20 New Mexico St. @ Minnesota

26. +20 Old Dominion @ Liberty

27. +20 Miami vs. LSU

28. +19 Hawaii @ Colorado St.

29. +17 Purdue vs. Northwestern

30. +17 Arizona vs. BYU

31. +14 Syracuse @ Western Michigan

32. +14 Oregon St. @ Ohio St.

33. +14 West Virginia vs. Tennessee

34. +12 USC vs. UNLV

35. +11 Notre Dame vs. Michigan

36. +10 Vanderbilt vs. MTSU

37. +9 Ole Miss @ Texas Tech

38. +5 South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina

39. +4 Nebraska vs. Akron

40. +3 Duke vs. Army

41. +3 Utah St. @ Michigan St.

42. +3 Texas St. @ Rutgers

43. +3 Maryland vs. Texas

44. +3 FIU vs. Indiana

45. +2 Navy @ Hawaii

46. +1 Marshall @ Miami-Ohio

 

[scarf31]

Great stuff, Jimmy. Wisky and that line facing the post-clusterfuck year of WKU is a for sure spot to look at. Best of luck this year! :cheers3:

 

[JohnnyGambler]

What were the results of the past few years?

That LT/South Alabama line is off by 7 points.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

What were the results of the past few years?

That LT/South Alabama line is off by 7 points.

m that

I love Louisiana Tech. A very experience team that beat South Alabama by 18 last season. USA is breaking in a new QB, head coach and offensive coordinator. If new head coach Steve Campbell can keep this within double digits, I'll tip my hat to him, but I'll have to pay to see it happen. I think this one has blowout written all over it! No way the Bulldogs don't win this by two TDs.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Great stuff, Jimmy. Wisky and that line facing the post-clusterfuck year of WKU is a for sure spot to look at. Best of luck this year! :cheers3:

Yeah, I just can't help myself. Gotta jump on it.

 

[s--k]

I like it, thanks for compiling.

To take it one step further, although more difficult, you could compare the OL experience vs the DL depth on the other side to give a true O vs D. Not sure how exactly to do that other than going through and manually factoring DL experience since I do not think anyone tabulates starts/snaps for DL in a summarized format.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

1st play of the season:

Wyoming @ NMSU UNDER 23 (1st Half)

Both teams are replacing their best offensive players in program history - RB Larry Rose, III for NMSU, and Josh Allen for Wyoming. Both teams will be breaking in new QBs, and defense appears to be the strength of both. Wyoming is also dealing with multiple injuries along the offensive line which I would think would hamper their offensive production as well, and probably makes their +43 in the chart above countefeit.

Let's start this season off with a nice win!

 

[Jimmydafreak]

What were the results of the past few years?

That LT/South Alabama line is off by 7 points.

Quite frankly, I'm too lazy to do the work on how it tured out last season. I've never really tracked it like that. Just like this season, I just use it as a guide. Let's see how it turns out this season.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I like it, thanks for compiling.

To take it one step further, although more difficult, you could compare the OL experience vs the DL depth on the other side to give a true O vs D. Not sure how exactly to do that other than going through and manually factoring DL experience since I do not think anyone tabulates starts/snaps for DL in a summarized format.

Yeah not sure how to objectively do that, but I kind of do it now. For example, in the LT/USA game, I compared the +74 to what USA has coming back in the front 7 (4 out of 7), and how I think they will match up. In this case I definitely think that LT's offensive line wins the day. I think their defensive line will as well. I think the game has blowout potential.

 

[wiseplayer]

1-0 with 40+. 2-0 on overall. Good stuff

 

[Jimmydafreak]

1-0 with 40+. 2-0 on overall. Good stuff

. . . and the Wyoming game played out as we would expect given their +43. They dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I don't do many futures bets, but when I do, I usually hit them. I believe that unless he misses significant time due to injuries, Tua Tagovailoa will win the Heisman. I think that because Alabama won't lose a game with him under center, he's an exceptional talent, and because has ridiculous talent around him. I don;t think I have ever been as confident in a +1353 bet in my life.

Adding:

Tua Tagovailoa to win the Heisman @ +1353 (Max Bet)

Will post my entire card soon - probably tomorrow.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Agree with you on value of O-Line. I always look at defense first, but when I move to offense the first thing I look at is the O-Line. With a team like Wisconsin that's a run first team the O-Line is even more important.

Thanks for doing all the work.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I find this particularly intriguing in udub v. Auburn game. It's kind of like wow

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Conversely, MD and Texas are a wash and that line has moved cause of drama

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I will post my plays in a separate thread as well, but here we go!

Thursday Night Game:

Wake Forest @ Tulane +7.5 (-138)

Wake Forest/Tulane OVER 23.5 (2nd half)(-125).

Friday Night Games:

Army @ Duke UNDER 22.5 (1st half)

Army will be lucky to score 10 points in this game. Let's just hope those 10 points don't come in the 1st half.

Western Kentucky @ Wisconsin -34.5 (-130)

Wisconsin will bludgeon WKU into submission. They should be able to name their score.

Saturday Early Games:

FAU @ Oklahoma OVER 72

This was a "Best Bet" for me until the line jumped 3.5 points yesterday, and Bookmaker screwed me out of the 68.5 line!

Saturday Afternoon Games:

Washington vs. Auburn ML (-135)

Not going to screw around with points here, but feel very confident Auburn wins the game. This game falls into one of the Offensive Line Starts exceptions. Even though Washington sits at +57, I still think they lose in the trenches to Auburn's front 7. I also favor Washington's defensive front versus Auburn's offensive line. The X-factor for me is Jarrett Stidham, and the fact that I'm not really buying Jake Browning versus a good SEC defense. I do like the UNDER here as well, just not crazy about the number.

UNLV +28 (-139) @ USC

Saturday Night Games:

Old Dominion -6.5 @ Liberty

Louisiana Tech -9.5 (-120) @ South Alabama ** Best Bet **

MTSU @ Vanderbilt UNDER 29.5 (1st half) ** Best Bet **

Louisiana vs. Alabama OVER 61.5 (-124)

This was my favorite play of the week when the total was 53. It has jumped almost a full 10 points since the good old days. I still love for this game to fly OVER the total. The ONLY thing that can keep this game from going OVER is Nick Saban.

With Tua in the game, Alabama will probably never punt.

Louisville vs. Alabama -23.5 (-121)

Same thing. If Saban plays Tua for the vast majority of the game, Louisville simply won't be able to keep up. I look for a final score of something like 56-24.

Akron @ Nebraska -26

Saturday Late Night Games:

UTSA @ Arizona State -18.5

BYU @ Arizona UNDER 31 (1st half)

Sunday Game:

Miami -2.5 (-145) vs. LSU

Man, I hate betting on Mark Richt in a big game. No coach does less with more than Mark Richt, except maybe Ed Orgeron. Bet at your own risk!

Monday Game:

Virginia Tech @ Florida State -6.5 (-145) ** Best Bet **

 

[Timh]

Nice card, BOL Jimmy.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Get use to Oklahoma and Alabama scoring in the 50s on a weekly basis. I expect to see a lot of OVERS in our future. Was hoping it would take a few weeks to catch up to Alabama, but it's not to be.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Adding:

Wake Forest/Tulane OVER 23.5 (2nd half).

 

[HUNT]

Like this idea

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Miami +20 is interesting but wo knowing LSU beef, I assume they will hold their own

Miami is inexperienced on their DL tho