Cardinal Bettors Should Hope For Kansas City’s Kennedy to Avoid Assassination
St. Louis opens a three-game series with KC Monday night at 8:15 ET. As long as KC's Ian Kennedy pitches as scheduled, the Cardinals make for a strong „first-five" bet.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: St Louis 1H
The Royals are in a peasant-like betting spot: the first-half ML is 1-6 in their first game of a road series.
But the biggest reason why KC is a bad bet is starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (1-4, 4.98 ERA). As a fly ball pitcher, Kennedy’s chief task is to ensure that batted balls stay fly balls and do not become home runs. He’s done a poor job of that, allowing four homers in his last 10 innings pitched. Expect more of the same as Kennedy resumes his career-worst month in terms of ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
Kennedy is not the pitcher he once was. Always a fastball pitcher, in Kennedy’s best years, he used his favorite pitch with greater effectivity. In 2014, his last season with a sub-four FIP and opposing home run rate at least half of what it’s been since then, he located his fastball with twice as much frequency in the most inside parts of the strike zone against same-handed batters. This season, he isn’t able to achieve the same location with nearly the same consistency. He had relied on pitching inside to enhance the perceived velocity of his fastball. Now that his fastball no longer feels as fast, hitters are having an easier time. They are slugging a career-high .639 against it. Kennedy has reduced his fastball usage in each of his past three games as he’s losing confidence with it. Nonetheless, he still throws it 60% of the time—he doesn’t really know anything else.
The declining Royal is yielding a 5.66 FIP to right-handed batters. The Cards, in terms of the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares where a team’s slugging percentage is with where it should be, are the third-most underachieving team in baseball against the fastball. But they have been rediscovering their scoring prowess, scoring 18 runs combined on May 18 and 19, largely thanks to their .545 slugging percentage against the fastball. Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez have been hot the past week. Pham is hitting over .300 against righties and boasts an OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) over 1.000 at home and at night. Martinez slugs .508 against righties and bats .345 at night. Jedd Gyorko slugs .815 against the fastball.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Miles Mikolas (5-0, 2.63 ERA) enjoys pitching in his new home, where his FIP is 1.67 in three starts and where he locates his pitches better. For instance, in his last home start vs the Cubs he left his pitches with much less frequency in the middle parts of the strike zone than on April 2nd in Milwaukee. Mikolas relies on a more balanced variety of pitches. To righties, he prefers the fastball in all situations and 45% of the time overall. Three of Kansas City’s top four batters in terms of BA hit, since 2017, below their current BA against the fastball at Mikolas’ average velocity of 95 mph, indicating that they have little with which to counter what Mikolas will offer them. Mikolas is allowing a .186 BA at home to righties. He likes to start lefties off with a sinker. Royals lefties haven’t seen much of the sinker and are metrically the second-most overachieving team against it.
Mikolas wants you to swing and make soft contact with his pitches. So he throws a first-pitch strike 69.9% of the time and induces contact in the zone 90.1% of the time. In terms of walk percentage and swing percentage both overall and at pitches in the zone, the Royals, like the Cubs lineup that Mikolas just dominated, are one of the most aggressive lineups. Their aggression will play into Mikolas’ hands.
St. Louis opens a three-game series with KC Monday night at 8:15 ET. As long as KC's Ian Kennedy pitches as scheduled, the Cardinals make for a strong „first-five" bet.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: St Louis 1H
The Royals are in a peasant-like betting spot: the first-half ML is 1-6 in their first game of a road series.
But the biggest reason why KC is a bad bet is starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (1-4, 4.98 ERA). As a fly ball pitcher, Kennedy’s chief task is to ensure that batted balls stay fly balls and do not become home runs. He’s done a poor job of that, allowing four homers in his last 10 innings pitched. Expect more of the same as Kennedy resumes his career-worst month in terms of ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
Kennedy is not the pitcher he once was. Always a fastball pitcher, in Kennedy’s best years, he used his favorite pitch with greater effectivity. In 2014, his last season with a sub-four FIP and opposing home run rate at least half of what it’s been since then, he located his fastball with twice as much frequency in the most inside parts of the strike zone against same-handed batters. This season, he isn’t able to achieve the same location with nearly the same consistency. He had relied on pitching inside to enhance the perceived velocity of his fastball. Now that his fastball no longer feels as fast, hitters are having an easier time. They are slugging a career-high .639 against it. Kennedy has reduced his fastball usage in each of his past three games as he’s losing confidence with it. Nonetheless, he still throws it 60% of the time—he doesn’t really know anything else.
The declining Royal is yielding a 5.66 FIP to right-handed batters. The Cards, in terms of the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares where a team’s slugging percentage is with where it should be, are the third-most underachieving team in baseball against the fastball. But they have been rediscovering their scoring prowess, scoring 18 runs combined on May 18 and 19, largely thanks to their .545 slugging percentage against the fastball. Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez have been hot the past week. Pham is hitting over .300 against righties and boasts an OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) over 1.000 at home and at night. Martinez slugs .508 against righties and bats .345 at night. Jedd Gyorko slugs .815 against the fastball.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Miles Mikolas (5-0, 2.63 ERA) enjoys pitching in his new home, where his FIP is 1.67 in three starts and where he locates his pitches better. For instance, in his last home start vs the Cubs he left his pitches with much less frequency in the middle parts of the strike zone than on April 2nd in Milwaukee. Mikolas relies on a more balanced variety of pitches. To righties, he prefers the fastball in all situations and 45% of the time overall. Three of Kansas City’s top four batters in terms of BA hit, since 2017, below their current BA against the fastball at Mikolas’ average velocity of 95 mph, indicating that they have little with which to counter what Mikolas will offer them. Mikolas is allowing a .186 BA at home to righties. He likes to start lefties off with a sinker. Royals lefties haven’t seen much of the sinker and are metrically the second-most overachieving team against it.
Mikolas wants you to swing and make soft contact with his pitches. So he throws a first-pitch strike 69.9% of the time and induces contact in the zone 90.1% of the time. In terms of walk percentage and swing percentage both overall and at pitches in the zone, the Royals, like the Cubs lineup that Mikolas just dominated, are one of the most aggressive lineups. Their aggression will play into Mikolas’ hands.
Last edited:
