Up-and-coming Pitchers Take Centerstage in Wednesday’s Rockies-Cardinals Clash
Two Wild Card contenders, St. Louis and Colorado, meet in St. Louis on Wednesday at 8:15 ET. Both starters are young studs who are ready to flex their stuff in what should be a tight affair.
Rockies at Cardinals
MLB Pick: Under
A common mistake that bettors make is cite meaningless trends—trends that have no logical reason for them, that are actually superstition. When a trend is meaningless, it can of course continue, for the same reason that a coin can land on heads eight consecutive times. But if heads hits eight times in a row, that’s not a reason to bet on heads again. On the contrary, if there is a 50% chance of heads or tails, then bettors should expect tails to finally land. The same concept applies to meaningless trends. So it’s tempting to bet on Colorado because St. Louis starter Luke Weaver (6-9, 4.70 ERA) is 0-4 after a win. But this trend is misleading because it implies that Weaver struggles after a win. Actually, Weaver’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.20 and he yielded one run after three of five wins.
Weaver leans on his fastball, throwing it with 55% frequency and relying on it most in all scenarios. He tends to keep it elevated with his above average spin rate, which is a major reason for his high opposing fly ball percentage. Weaver adds variety to his arsenal with a change-up that averages eight mph fewer than his 94 mph heater. He concentrates it low in the zone, placing it with 55% frequency in the bottom row. It’s his favorite whiff pitch because of how it plays off his fastball in terms of velocity and location, combined with which its vertical movement entices a futile swing with two strikes.
He shows good form, conceding two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts, and will continue it against the Rockies, who match up poorly with him. They rank 22nd in slugging away against the fastball from righties and 27th against Weaver’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up, from righties, away. Weaver is undervalued. The „under“ is hitting in 66% of his home starts.
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Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, (9-6, 3.13 ERA) like Weaver, shows strong form, allowing one run or fewer in three of his past four starts and two or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. The „under“ is 16-5 (76%) in his starts.
The southpaw Freeland relies on five different pitches with between eight and 38% frequency, although he occasionally throws his least frequent pitch, the slider, with up to 41% frequency, and his most frequent one, the fastball, with only 13% frequency. His variety makes him unpredictable. For instance, against right-handed batters he's throwing each of his five pitches with at least 10% frequency as a first pitch.
What Weaver brings in velocity, Freeland brings in location. Freeland avoids the middle of the plate. His five most frequent pitch locations are on the outer peripheries of the zone. His location, that’s either precise or just misses the zone, helps him induce the 12th-highest soft contact rate. He also doesn’t allow many homers despite pitching in Coors Field. This fact makes him an insanely good „under“ pitcher at home, where oddsmakers set a higher game total in anticipation of homers.
Freeland has allowed five homers in his past ten games, which would give him the fourth-best opposing home run rate after Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom. This strength makes him a positive match-up against the Cards’ lineup, which is homer-dependent. It ranks ninth in homers per game, but 17th in runs per game. Familiarity has hurt the Cards, who have mustered two or three runs in their last three game-threes in a series with their hottest hitter, Matt Carpenter, achieving no more than a hit in each of them.
St. Louis has seen immediate results after cleaning up its bullpen, conceding zero runs in its last four games after the sixth inning. Colorado’s bullpen ranks 10th in FIP. Scott Oberg and Adam Ottavino boast sub-three ERA’s.
Two Wild Card contenders, St. Louis and Colorado, meet in St. Louis on Wednesday at 8:15 ET. Both starters are young studs who are ready to flex their stuff in what should be a tight affair.
Rockies at Cardinals
MLB Pick: Under
A common mistake that bettors make is cite meaningless trends—trends that have no logical reason for them, that are actually superstition. When a trend is meaningless, it can of course continue, for the same reason that a coin can land on heads eight consecutive times. But if heads hits eight times in a row, that’s not a reason to bet on heads again. On the contrary, if there is a 50% chance of heads or tails, then bettors should expect tails to finally land. The same concept applies to meaningless trends. So it’s tempting to bet on Colorado because St. Louis starter Luke Weaver (6-9, 4.70 ERA) is 0-4 after a win. But this trend is misleading because it implies that Weaver struggles after a win. Actually, Weaver’s FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.20 and he yielded one run after three of five wins.
Weaver leans on his fastball, throwing it with 55% frequency and relying on it most in all scenarios. He tends to keep it elevated with his above average spin rate, which is a major reason for his high opposing fly ball percentage. Weaver adds variety to his arsenal with a change-up that averages eight mph fewer than his 94 mph heater. He concentrates it low in the zone, placing it with 55% frequency in the bottom row. It’s his favorite whiff pitch because of how it plays off his fastball in terms of velocity and location, combined with which its vertical movement entices a futile swing with two strikes.
He shows good form, conceding two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts, and will continue it against the Rockies, who match up poorly with him. They rank 22nd in slugging away against the fastball from righties and 27th against Weaver’s two favorite pitches, the fastball and change-up, from righties, away. Weaver is undervalued. The „under“ is hitting in 66% of his home starts.
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Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, (9-6, 3.13 ERA) like Weaver, shows strong form, allowing one run or fewer in three of his past four starts and two or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. The „under“ is 16-5 (76%) in his starts.
The southpaw Freeland relies on five different pitches with between eight and 38% frequency, although he occasionally throws his least frequent pitch, the slider, with up to 41% frequency, and his most frequent one, the fastball, with only 13% frequency. His variety makes him unpredictable. For instance, against right-handed batters he's throwing each of his five pitches with at least 10% frequency as a first pitch.
What Weaver brings in velocity, Freeland brings in location. Freeland avoids the middle of the plate. His five most frequent pitch locations are on the outer peripheries of the zone. His location, that’s either precise or just misses the zone, helps him induce the 12th-highest soft contact rate. He also doesn’t allow many homers despite pitching in Coors Field. This fact makes him an insanely good „under“ pitcher at home, where oddsmakers set a higher game total in anticipation of homers.
Freeland has allowed five homers in his past ten games, which would give him the fourth-best opposing home run rate after Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom. This strength makes him a positive match-up against the Cards’ lineup, which is homer-dependent. It ranks ninth in homers per game, but 17th in runs per game. Familiarity has hurt the Cards, who have mustered two or three runs in their last three game-threes in a series with their hottest hitter, Matt Carpenter, achieving no more than a hit in each of them.
St. Louis has seen immediate results after cleaning up its bullpen, conceding zero runs in its last four games after the sixth inning. Colorado’s bullpen ranks 10th in FIP. Scott Oberg and Adam Ottavino boast sub-three ERA’s.
