No Booty for Pirates in Finale vs Cardinals
The Cardinals close a four game home series Sunday afternoon vs Pittsburgh. Form and familiarity are the two key words that justify a Cardinals 1H play.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: St. Louis 1H
Last season, Reds starter Amir Garrett nearly no-hit the Cardinals through six innings in his first career start. When the Cardinals saw him again, he didn’t make it past the fourth inning. The same situation is developing. Pirates starter Nick Kingham (2-1, 3.75 ERA) was close to a perfect game in his first ever start against St. Louis. He has allowed three or four runs in each of his three starts since. Kingham has to figure out how to be effective despite being a familiar commodity.
Against the Cards, Kingham threw his slider with 32% frequency, which he hasn’t been able to do since. Its funky movement, velocity differential and identical release point with his curveball deceived Cardinal batters all night, who had had no idea what awaited them, since this pitch was a new addition to his repertoire. Consequently, they batted .091 against it and more than half their swings against it were whiffs.
His slider has become less effective, yielding an opposing slugging percentage above .600 in two of his past three starts, even though those two teams rank in the bottom half in slugging against the slider. This regression partly derives from familiarity-- teams are figuring out how to hit this pitch as more scouting tape becomes available. But his slider is also deteriorating in quality. In his last two starts, its spin rate has dropped about 200 rotations per minute, which makes it less deceptive to the batter’s perception. Its vertical movement has also risen so that hitters are better able to track it. Its movement has become less tricky.
Kingham won’t be able to throw his slider as often or as well. He also throws a sinker which his last two opponents slugged over .650 against because he keeps leaving it in the middle parts of the strike zone. His other primary pitch is his fastball, which Cardinal batters will be able to sit on and thereby repeat their history with Amir Garrett. Kingham’s fastball is nothing special regarding velocity, movement, etc. In the past two weeks, the Cards rank ninth in slugging against the fastball. Look out for Jedd Gyorko, who is slugging .667 against the fastball. Marcell Ozuna is hitting over .300 in his past seven days, upstart Harrison Bader over .400 and with great power.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.71 ERA) shows great form for St. Louis. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his past eight outings and has won six consecutive decisions. Wacha's velocity is improving and his May ERA is down 1.60 from April. He’s yielding +4.4 units in home games, where his ERA is 1.42 lower than on the road.
The key for Wacha has been to improve his secondary stuff and rely less on his inconsistent fastball. Opponents are slugging .200 or lower against his curve, cutter and change-up than they did in April and have mustered only one extra-base hit.. He’s improved the command of his curveball, which he throws more often for a strike. His cutter cuts more, making it more elusive, so that hitters are producing less line drives from it and more ground balls. With his changeup, he’s able to pinpoint more frequently the lowest corners of the zone. He also uses it more often as his first pitch, which cuts into his fastball usage. Opponents can’t brace for his 94 mph first-pitch fastball anymore because they would get frozen by his changeup.
Last season, Wacha owned PIttsburgh in St. Louis, going 2-0 against them and allowing one run in 14.1 combined innings. Wacha matches up well with Pittsburgh as a pitcher who likes to hammer the lowest quadrant of the strike zone, which he’s been doing well lately. Against pitches thrown in this area, the Pirates are slugging below-average, .293.
The Cardinals close a four game home series Sunday afternoon vs Pittsburgh. Form and familiarity are the two key words that justify a Cardinals 1H play.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: St. Louis 1H
Last season, Reds starter Amir Garrett nearly no-hit the Cardinals through six innings in his first career start. When the Cardinals saw him again, he didn’t make it past the fourth inning. The same situation is developing. Pirates starter Nick Kingham (2-1, 3.75 ERA) was close to a perfect game in his first ever start against St. Louis. He has allowed three or four runs in each of his three starts since. Kingham has to figure out how to be effective despite being a familiar commodity.
Against the Cards, Kingham threw his slider with 32% frequency, which he hasn’t been able to do since. Its funky movement, velocity differential and identical release point with his curveball deceived Cardinal batters all night, who had had no idea what awaited them, since this pitch was a new addition to his repertoire. Consequently, they batted .091 against it and more than half their swings against it were whiffs.
His slider has become less effective, yielding an opposing slugging percentage above .600 in two of his past three starts, even though those two teams rank in the bottom half in slugging against the slider. This regression partly derives from familiarity-- teams are figuring out how to hit this pitch as more scouting tape becomes available. But his slider is also deteriorating in quality. In his last two starts, its spin rate has dropped about 200 rotations per minute, which makes it less deceptive to the batter’s perception. Its vertical movement has also risen so that hitters are better able to track it. Its movement has become less tricky.
Kingham won’t be able to throw his slider as often or as well. He also throws a sinker which his last two opponents slugged over .650 against because he keeps leaving it in the middle parts of the strike zone. His other primary pitch is his fastball, which Cardinal batters will be able to sit on and thereby repeat their history with Amir Garrett. Kingham’s fastball is nothing special regarding velocity, movement, etc. In the past two weeks, the Cards rank ninth in slugging against the fastball. Look out for Jedd Gyorko, who is slugging .667 against the fastball. Marcell Ozuna is hitting over .300 in his past seven days, upstart Harrison Bader over .400 and with great power.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.71 ERA) shows great form for St. Louis. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his past eight outings and has won six consecutive decisions. Wacha's velocity is improving and his May ERA is down 1.60 from April. He’s yielding +4.4 units in home games, where his ERA is 1.42 lower than on the road.
The key for Wacha has been to improve his secondary stuff and rely less on his inconsistent fastball. Opponents are slugging .200 or lower against his curve, cutter and change-up than they did in April and have mustered only one extra-base hit.. He’s improved the command of his curveball, which he throws more often for a strike. His cutter cuts more, making it more elusive, so that hitters are producing less line drives from it and more ground balls. With his changeup, he’s able to pinpoint more frequently the lowest corners of the zone. He also uses it more often as his first pitch, which cuts into his fastball usage. Opponents can’t brace for his 94 mph first-pitch fastball anymore because they would get frozen by his changeup.
Last season, Wacha owned PIttsburgh in St. Louis, going 2-0 against them and allowing one run in 14.1 combined innings. Wacha matches up well with Pittsburgh as a pitcher who likes to hammer the lowest quadrant of the strike zone, which he’s been doing well lately. Against pitches thrown in this area, the Pirates are slugging below-average, .293.
