Panthers vs. Cardinals: NFL Week 3 Picks & Game Predictions
Panthers vs Cardinals
Sunday, September 25 2019 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Odds:
Carolina opened as 3.5-point favorites in Arizona. But, because bettors are influenced strongly by what they see and because they saw Carolina quarterback Cam Newton play very sloppily on Thursday night, the line is already down to 2.5 at most books, while +3 lingers at Bovada. I recommend pouncing on the current number before it drops further.
Cam Is A Scam
Betting against Cam-led Carolina has generated consistent profit as the Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games with him under center.
Towards the end of last season, Cam was struggling to complete passes downfield and he threw at least one interception in each of his last six games. Two weeks into the season, Cam is putting up career-worst numbers in terms of stats like passer rating and completion percentage.
Injury-related questions surround him, particularly concerning his shoulder and his foot. He’s also trying to develop new throwing mechanics and find rhythm with his receiving crew after offseason injury issues prevented him from getting even close to his usual preparation time with the offense.
Coach Ron Rivera can lie all he want as no coach could be dumb enough in his situation to publicly reveal Cam’s lingering injury issues. But it’s clear that Cam has some and it’s clear that Rivera is doing his best Mark Dantonio impression by continuing to trot him out.
Whether Cam’s injury is affecting his passing is harder to discern. His passes may be looking ugly due to his changing mechanics. But it’s clear that Cam is not running and the only possible explanation must be injury-related. Since 2015, Cam has performed 100 quarterback sneaks, more than twice as many as any other quarterback. They're a known strength of Newton, who in his career has converted 83 percent of 1-3 yards-to-go situations via the sneak.
Newton also hasn’t been running in general, which is critical to his personal performance and to that of Carolina’s offense. Last year, the Panthers were 6-3 SU when he ran more than five times and 0-5 when he didn’t. All-time, Carolina is 0-7 SU when Cam runs two times or fewer in a game. When he doesn’t scramble, he becomes more of a static passer, which isn’t his style. Also, defenses are able to stack the box and focus on containing superstar running back Christian McCaffrey.
If I know these trends, I promise you that Rivera does. He must think that a hurt Cam is better than a healthy Will Grier or Kyle Allen.
Kyler The Creator
Kyler Murray became the second quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 300 yards in his first two career games. And he doesn’t even need a decent offensive line to support him. Coach Kliff Kingsbury loves to line Murray up in shotgun in four wide receiver sets. In these sets, he employs a running back in David Johnson who is very comfortable to leave the backfield and make himself available in the short passing game, thereby effectively giving Murray five wide receivers.
These sets give Murray space to throw the ball and more options with which to stretch the field. He has a quick release and likes to hit slants or out routes before pressure arrives. When he gets the opportunity, he also flexes his accurate deep passing especially to Christian Kirk, who has one of the league's highest burst and agility scores and ranks 14th in catch radius.
Carolina’s pass defense ranks 12th in opposing passer rating despite facing Jared Goff, who seems stuck in the same funk that plagued him last year, and Jameis Winston, who misses his offensive coordinator from last year Dirk Koetter.
The Panther pass defense could be stellar, though, and it wouldn’t matter when it has to spend so much time on the field because Carolina’s offense is so inept and inefficient with Cam. Arizona’s up-tempo style will place additional burden on its endurance.
Best Bet: Cardinals +3 at -125 odds with Bovada
Panthers vs Cardinals
Sunday, September 25 2019 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Odds:
Carolina opened as 3.5-point favorites in Arizona. But, because bettors are influenced strongly by what they see and because they saw Carolina quarterback Cam Newton play very sloppily on Thursday night, the line is already down to 2.5 at most books, while +3 lingers at Bovada. I recommend pouncing on the current number before it drops further.
Cam Is A Scam
Betting against Cam-led Carolina has generated consistent profit as the Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games with him under center.
Towards the end of last season, Cam was struggling to complete passes downfield and he threw at least one interception in each of his last six games. Two weeks into the season, Cam is putting up career-worst numbers in terms of stats like passer rating and completion percentage.
Injury-related questions surround him, particularly concerning his shoulder and his foot. He’s also trying to develop new throwing mechanics and find rhythm with his receiving crew after offseason injury issues prevented him from getting even close to his usual preparation time with the offense.
Coach Ron Rivera can lie all he want as no coach could be dumb enough in his situation to publicly reveal Cam’s lingering injury issues. But it’s clear that Cam has some and it’s clear that Rivera is doing his best Mark Dantonio impression by continuing to trot him out.
Whether Cam’s injury is affecting his passing is harder to discern. His passes may be looking ugly due to his changing mechanics. But it’s clear that Cam is not running and the only possible explanation must be injury-related. Since 2015, Cam has performed 100 quarterback sneaks, more than twice as many as any other quarterback. They're a known strength of Newton, who in his career has converted 83 percent of 1-3 yards-to-go situations via the sneak.
Newton also hasn’t been running in general, which is critical to his personal performance and to that of Carolina’s offense. Last year, the Panthers were 6-3 SU when he ran more than five times and 0-5 when he didn’t. All-time, Carolina is 0-7 SU when Cam runs two times or fewer in a game. When he doesn’t scramble, he becomes more of a static passer, which isn’t his style. Also, defenses are able to stack the box and focus on containing superstar running back Christian McCaffrey.
If I know these trends, I promise you that Rivera does. He must think that a hurt Cam is better than a healthy Will Grier or Kyle Allen.
Kyler The Creator
Kyler Murray became the second quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 300 yards in his first two career games. And he doesn’t even need a decent offensive line to support him. Coach Kliff Kingsbury loves to line Murray up in shotgun in four wide receiver sets. In these sets, he employs a running back in David Johnson who is very comfortable to leave the backfield and make himself available in the short passing game, thereby effectively giving Murray five wide receivers.
These sets give Murray space to throw the ball and more options with which to stretch the field. He has a quick release and likes to hit slants or out routes before pressure arrives. When he gets the opportunity, he also flexes his accurate deep passing especially to Christian Kirk, who has one of the league's highest burst and agility scores and ranks 14th in catch radius.
Carolina’s pass defense ranks 12th in opposing passer rating despite facing Jared Goff, who seems stuck in the same funk that plagued him last year, and Jameis Winston, who misses his offensive coordinator from last year Dirk Koetter.
The Panther pass defense could be stellar, though, and it wouldn’t matter when it has to spend so much time on the field because Carolina’s offense is so inept and inefficient with Cam. Arizona’s up-tempo style will place additional burden on its endurance.
Best Bet: Cardinals +3 at -125 odds with Bovada
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