Cardinals vs. Padres Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Petco Park in San Diego
Ryan Weathers
In a mixture of starts and performances out of the bullpen, Padre starter Ryan Weathers has been consistently solid.
He has not allowed more than a run in any outing with his longest outing so far lasting 5.2 innings.
Generally speaking, Weathers pitches to contact. He isn’t the kind of pitcher who will strike many batters out.
He relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo, throwing both pitches with a combined 85.2 percent frequency.
His velocity or spin rate is not what makes him impressive.
Although, he can dig deep and throw his fastball at 96 mph if he needs to.
Moreover, the 99% active spin percentage of his fastball indicates that he gets a lot out of the spin that he does place on his fastball.
Active spin is an important statistic because it identifies the degree to which a pitch’s spin contributes to his movement.
Instead of relying primarily on velocity or spin rate, Weathers relies on the relatively strong movement especially of his fastball.
His fastball has more movement than most fastballs, based on inches of break compared with the average fastball.
Despite the strong movement in his fastball, he has solid command of it.
Command is Weathers’ best trait and it is the trait that distinguishes him from other pitchers.
He owns superb command of his pitches, frequently disadvantaging batters by hitting the corners of the strike zone.
With this level of accuracy, he places batters in unfavorable counts by locating his pitches in areas where they are disinclined to swing.
Weathers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Because St. Louis owns a right-heavy lineup and Weathers is left-handed, we need to assess Weathers’ ability to handle right-handed batters.
They are hitting .146 and slugging .268 against him so far. Weathers is even stronger against righties at home, where they hit .158 and slug .263 against him.
Weathers’ precision makes him effective against opposite-handed batters. He will also bust out the occasional change-up.
This pitch is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters. Weathers’ change-up has yet to be hit.
Weathers vs. Cardinal Batters
In recent history, Cardinal batters tend to struggle against pitchers they have not seen.
Cincinnati lefty Amir Garrett, for example, shut out St. Louis over the course of six innings. Before that outing, the Cardinals had not seen Garrett at all.
Another youngster in Miami’s Trevor Rogers faced St. Louis for the first time in his career in the season opener.
Rogers had the worst possible start to his season, throwing eight straight balls and otherwise struggling to find his footing.
After surrendering two first-inning earned runs, Rogers locked down the Cardinals for the remainder of his outing.
The Cardinals have not seen Weathers and are evidently disadvantaged by this lack of exposure.
They are not hitting the ball well, anyways, averaging just over two runs per game in their last four games.
Kwang Hyun Kim
Like his Padre counterpart, Cardinal starter Kwang Hyun Kim has been a consistent force for his team’s rotation.
Since a rough opening start, he has yet to allow more than a run in any single outing, while lasting more than five innings in almost every outing.
His 24 strikeouts to five walks — with three of those five walks coming in a single outing — indicates positive command,
Similar to Weathers, he relies on a fastball-slider combo. Neither pitch owns much velocity or spin.
But he plays both pitches well off of each other. By creating changes of velocity and location relative to his fastball, he makes his slider a strong put-away pitch with a 33.3-percent whiff rate.
Kim vs. Padre Batters
Kim matches up well with Padre batters because he is a lefty and they rank 24th in hitting .215 against lefties.
They also rank 25th in slugging .349 against the fastball and slider from lefties combined.
Based on BA, the top San Diego hitters so far are left-handed.
While Manny Machado is a big-named righty, his BA remains a paltry .236 this season.
Moreover, right-handed slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. remains out, as does San Diego’s top left-handed hitter, team BA leader Eric Hosmer.
Bullpens
San Diego owns the top bullpen right now as measured by ERA.
They have a large number of relievers with sub-three ERAs who did not see action yesterday.
While the Cardinal bullpen does not rank as highly, the team’s top relievers are fresh.
This is a benefit of being blown out yesterday: the Cards did not need to employ their best relievers.
Giovanny Gallegos with his 2.45 ERA and Genesis Cabrera with his 2.41 ERA are two relievers ready to support Kim.
The Verdict
A new element for tonight’s opposing batters, Weathers will continue to thrive with strong command and precision.
His Cardinal counterpart will flourish as a lefty who mirrors Weathers’ great command.
With both bullpens sufficiently fresh and able, take the full-game “under.”
Best Bet: Under 7 at -108 with Heritage
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Petco Park in San Diego
Ryan Weathers
In a mixture of starts and performances out of the bullpen, Padre starter Ryan Weathers has been consistently solid.
He has not allowed more than a run in any outing with his longest outing so far lasting 5.2 innings.
Generally speaking, Weathers pitches to contact. He isn’t the kind of pitcher who will strike many batters out.
He relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo, throwing both pitches with a combined 85.2 percent frequency.
His velocity or spin rate is not what makes him impressive.
Although, he can dig deep and throw his fastball at 96 mph if he needs to.
Moreover, the 99% active spin percentage of his fastball indicates that he gets a lot out of the spin that he does place on his fastball.
Active spin is an important statistic because it identifies the degree to which a pitch’s spin contributes to his movement.
Instead of relying primarily on velocity or spin rate, Weathers relies on the relatively strong movement especially of his fastball.
His fastball has more movement than most fastballs, based on inches of break compared with the average fastball.
Despite the strong movement in his fastball, he has solid command of it.
Command is Weathers’ best trait and it is the trait that distinguishes him from other pitchers.
He owns superb command of his pitches, frequently disadvantaging batters by hitting the corners of the strike zone.
With this level of accuracy, he places batters in unfavorable counts by locating his pitches in areas where they are disinclined to swing.
Weathers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Because St. Louis owns a right-heavy lineup and Weathers is left-handed, we need to assess Weathers’ ability to handle right-handed batters.
They are hitting .146 and slugging .268 against him so far. Weathers is even stronger against righties at home, where they hit .158 and slug .263 against him.
Weathers’ precision makes him effective against opposite-handed batters. He will also bust out the occasional change-up.
This pitch is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters. Weathers’ change-up has yet to be hit.
Weathers vs. Cardinal Batters
In recent history, Cardinal batters tend to struggle against pitchers they have not seen.
Cincinnati lefty Amir Garrett, for example, shut out St. Louis over the course of six innings. Before that outing, the Cardinals had not seen Garrett at all.
Another youngster in Miami’s Trevor Rogers faced St. Louis for the first time in his career in the season opener.
Rogers had the worst possible start to his season, throwing eight straight balls and otherwise struggling to find his footing.
After surrendering two first-inning earned runs, Rogers locked down the Cardinals for the remainder of his outing.
The Cardinals have not seen Weathers and are evidently disadvantaged by this lack of exposure.
They are not hitting the ball well, anyways, averaging just over two runs per game in their last four games.
Kwang Hyun Kim
Like his Padre counterpart, Cardinal starter Kwang Hyun Kim has been a consistent force for his team’s rotation.
Since a rough opening start, he has yet to allow more than a run in any single outing, while lasting more than five innings in almost every outing.
His 24 strikeouts to five walks — with three of those five walks coming in a single outing — indicates positive command,
Similar to Weathers, he relies on a fastball-slider combo. Neither pitch owns much velocity or spin.
But he plays both pitches well off of each other. By creating changes of velocity and location relative to his fastball, he makes his slider a strong put-away pitch with a 33.3-percent whiff rate.
Kim vs. Padre Batters
Kim matches up well with Padre batters because he is a lefty and they rank 24th in hitting .215 against lefties.
They also rank 25th in slugging .349 against the fastball and slider from lefties combined.
Based on BA, the top San Diego hitters so far are left-handed.
While Manny Machado is a big-named righty, his BA remains a paltry .236 this season.
Moreover, right-handed slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. remains out, as does San Diego’s top left-handed hitter, team BA leader Eric Hosmer.
Bullpens
San Diego owns the top bullpen right now as measured by ERA.
They have a large number of relievers with sub-three ERAs who did not see action yesterday.
While the Cardinal bullpen does not rank as highly, the team’s top relievers are fresh.
This is a benefit of being blown out yesterday: the Cards did not need to employ their best relievers.
Giovanny Gallegos with his 2.45 ERA and Genesis Cabrera with his 2.41 ERA are two relievers ready to support Kim.
The Verdict
A new element for tonight’s opposing batters, Weathers will continue to thrive with strong command and precision.
His Cardinal counterpart will flourish as a lefty who mirrors Weathers’ great command.
With both bullpens sufficiently fresh and able, take the full-game “under.”
Best Bet: Under 7 at -108 with Heritage
