MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets of the Day
Cardinals vs Nationals
Monday, October 14 2019 at 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS) at Nationals Park
Washington’s Stephen Strasburg has been enjoying a strong postseason performance. He’s yielded a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings, three of which came in relief against Milwaukee. He also had to face the same Dodger lineup twice.
Dating back to his final start of the regular season, which was against Philadelphia, Strasburg has struck out 31 batters while walking only one.
In betting terms, the „under“ is 5-2 (71.4%) in Strasburg’s starts against NL Central opponents.
This season represents a marked improvement for Strasburg over last season. His ERA, for example, was .42 lower in the 2019 regular season than in last year’s.
His biggest change has been in pitch usage. He throws his fastball with 15 percent less frequency, instead choosing to emphasize his curveball and sinker more. Especially lately, he’s thrown more of his curveball.
It’s smart of him to throw his curveball more because it’s his most effective pitch. Its opposing slugging rate, .225, would make for a solid opposing BA rate. Opponents struggle with its strong and fairly unique movement.
He also places it well, with three of its most frequent locations coming in the lowest row of the strike zone. Over 21 percent of its strikes land in the lowest-right corner of the strike zone.
This pitch also plays well off his elevated fastball because its low location and change of velocity effectively change the batter’s eye level and keeps him off-balance.
Strasburg’s emphasis on his curveball is bad news for a Cardinal lineup that ranked 23rd in slugging against the curveball during the regular season. That ranking includes phases when the Cardinal lineup was hot.
But St. Louis has been an absolute dud in the scoring department since it exploded in the first three innings of its series finale against Atlanta. St. Louis has produced one run in its last 24 innings.
Marcell Ozuna is one batter who’s gone ice cold. He’s 0-for-8 so far in this series, although the Cardinals will depend extra on his bat given his strong career numbers against Strasburg.
Jack Flaherty is St. Louis’ biggest hope today. He’s also had an excellent postseason, yielding a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings against Atlanta. Two of the three runs that he allowed came in the seventh inning while trying to extend himself beyond 110 pitches.
Now that he’s adjusted to playoff baseball, Flaherty’s postseason dominance represents a continuation of his regular season efforts. In August, he yielded a 0.71 ERA and in September he yielded a 0.82 ERA.
He typically emphasizes a fastball with above-average velocity, slide arm-side tail, and nearly identical release points with those of his sinker. But he’s been adding emphasis on his slider that’s been yielding a BA of .150 or lower in each of his past four months.
On the season, opponents hit .201 against Flaherty’s fastball and .181 against his slider and both pitches combine to account for 75 percent of his arsenal. Given Flaherty’s success, the „under“ tends to hit in his starts — in 56.3 percent of them.
National batters have barely seen Flaherty, accumulating only 19 at-bats. But Flaherty is great against both lefties and righties.
The first-half under is 2-0 so far in this series with the Cardinals’ offense bringing absolutely nothing to the table and Washington itself adding very little. Only two runs have been scored through five innings this series.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 3.5 runs at +105 odds with 5Dimes
Cardinals vs Nationals
Monday, October 14 2019 at 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS) at Nationals Park
Washington’s Stephen Strasburg has been enjoying a strong postseason performance. He’s yielded a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings, three of which came in relief against Milwaukee. He also had to face the same Dodger lineup twice.
Dating back to his final start of the regular season, which was against Philadelphia, Strasburg has struck out 31 batters while walking only one.
In betting terms, the „under“ is 5-2 (71.4%) in Strasburg’s starts against NL Central opponents.
This season represents a marked improvement for Strasburg over last season. His ERA, for example, was .42 lower in the 2019 regular season than in last year’s.
His biggest change has been in pitch usage. He throws his fastball with 15 percent less frequency, instead choosing to emphasize his curveball and sinker more. Especially lately, he’s thrown more of his curveball.
It’s smart of him to throw his curveball more because it’s his most effective pitch. Its opposing slugging rate, .225, would make for a solid opposing BA rate. Opponents struggle with its strong and fairly unique movement.
He also places it well, with three of its most frequent locations coming in the lowest row of the strike zone. Over 21 percent of its strikes land in the lowest-right corner of the strike zone.
This pitch also plays well off his elevated fastball because its low location and change of velocity effectively change the batter’s eye level and keeps him off-balance.
Strasburg’s emphasis on his curveball is bad news for a Cardinal lineup that ranked 23rd in slugging against the curveball during the regular season. That ranking includes phases when the Cardinal lineup was hot.
But St. Louis has been an absolute dud in the scoring department since it exploded in the first three innings of its series finale against Atlanta. St. Louis has produced one run in its last 24 innings.
Marcell Ozuna is one batter who’s gone ice cold. He’s 0-for-8 so far in this series, although the Cardinals will depend extra on his bat given his strong career numbers against Strasburg.
Jack Flaherty is St. Louis’ biggest hope today. He’s also had an excellent postseason, yielding a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings against Atlanta. Two of the three runs that he allowed came in the seventh inning while trying to extend himself beyond 110 pitches.
Now that he’s adjusted to playoff baseball, Flaherty’s postseason dominance represents a continuation of his regular season efforts. In August, he yielded a 0.71 ERA and in September he yielded a 0.82 ERA.
He typically emphasizes a fastball with above-average velocity, slide arm-side tail, and nearly identical release points with those of his sinker. But he’s been adding emphasis on his slider that’s been yielding a BA of .150 or lower in each of his past four months.
On the season, opponents hit .201 against Flaherty’s fastball and .181 against his slider and both pitches combine to account for 75 percent of his arsenal. Given Flaherty’s success, the „under“ tends to hit in his starts — in 56.3 percent of them.
National batters have barely seen Flaherty, accumulating only 19 at-bats. But Flaherty is great against both lefties and righties.
The first-half under is 2-0 so far in this series with the Cardinals’ offense bringing absolutely nothing to the table and Washington itself adding very little. Only two runs have been scored through five innings this series.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 3.5 runs at +105 odds with 5Dimes
