Be Sharp by Betting on an Unlikely „Under“ Between Nats and Cards on Tuesday
Two Wild Card candidates Washington and St. Louis meet in the gateway to the West on Tuesday at 8:15 ET. Neither starting pitcher looks appetizing on the surface, but key trends and lineup info justify the discomfort that goes with betting the „under.“
Washington at St. Louis
MLB Pick: Under
If betting „unders“ were easy, we would bet on the „under“ whenever superstar aces Chris Sale and Max Scherzer pitched and become millionaires. But oddsmakers are a step ahead of us, putting out low totals on the MLB oddsboard without bettors understanding the concept of betting value. The result is that bettors lose a lot of money betting „under“ an infinitesimal number with superstar pitchers on the mound. The key is to find the hidden gems—the pitchers whom nobody wants to trust, but whom oddsmakers undervalue with high totals.
The „under“ is hitting in 60% of St. Louis’ John Gant’s (4-4, 3.89 ERA) home and 66% of his night games—where his ERA is 1.09 lower than daytime.
Gant’s favorite pitch is the fastball. He relies on it with 55% frequency and most in all scenarios. It boasts respectable velocity, strong arm-side movement that’s uncharacteristic for a fastball, and varied location in all parts of the plate. These elements explain why opponents bat only .222 against it despite his reliance on it. Gant’s velocity is accentuated by an abnormally strong differential in velocity between his pitches. Most pitchers have their change-ups be seven to eight mph slower. Arizona’s Zack Greinke is on one end of this spectrum—his change-up averages only a few miles per hour less. Gant is on the other, whose change-up averages 11 mph less. This change of pace keeps hitters off-balance, particularly because he also throws the change-up frequently enough in all scenarios so that batters don’t know if a 93 mph heater is coming or an 82 mph change-up with vertical bite and decent arm-side movement. The change is his favorite whiff pitch and it’s most effective for him with the batter ahead in the count and with two strikes.
The „under“ is hitting in 64.9% of Washington’s away games. The Nats have mustered three runs or fewer in four of their past five road games. Anthony Rendon’s health is questionable because of his hand.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
The „under“ is hitting in 75% of Washington’s Gio Gonzalez’s (7-8, 3.89 ERA) road games despite his 4.26 road ERA because oddsmakers know that bettors will want to go „over“ with him on the mound and shade the total accordingly.
Gonzalez is showing better form lately, allowing one run over seven innings in two of his last three starts. The southpaw Gonzalez relies on four different pitches with between 21 and 28 percent frequency. His most successful pitch is the fastball, which opponents slug .259 against. His velocity is lackluster, but he concentrates his pitches on areas in the strike zone where it’s more difficult to hit, on the periphery and bottom. He combines good location on the borders of the zone with strong horizontal movement that toys with the batter’s perception of whether the pitch will land in the zone for a strike or not. His sinker features very strong horizontal movement that makes it elusive and a reliable ground-ball pitch for him. But his top pitch is the fastball, which opponents slug only .259 against. He emphasizes it most in every situation against same-handed batters, but features his breaking and off-speed stuff against righties.
St. Louis is hitting well lately, but on the road. The „under" hitting in 56% of Cards home games, where St. Louis’ OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is under .700, but much higher on the road. Once hot, Matt Carpenter is batting .192 in his last seven days and his slugging is .198 lower at home than away.
Two Wild Card candidates Washington and St. Louis meet in the gateway to the West on Tuesday at 8:15 ET. Neither starting pitcher looks appetizing on the surface, but key trends and lineup info justify the discomfort that goes with betting the „under.“
Washington at St. Louis
MLB Pick: Under
If betting „unders“ were easy, we would bet on the „under“ whenever superstar aces Chris Sale and Max Scherzer pitched and become millionaires. But oddsmakers are a step ahead of us, putting out low totals on the MLB oddsboard without bettors understanding the concept of betting value. The result is that bettors lose a lot of money betting „under“ an infinitesimal number with superstar pitchers on the mound. The key is to find the hidden gems—the pitchers whom nobody wants to trust, but whom oddsmakers undervalue with high totals.
The „under“ is hitting in 60% of St. Louis’ John Gant’s (4-4, 3.89 ERA) home and 66% of his night games—where his ERA is 1.09 lower than daytime.
Gant’s favorite pitch is the fastball. He relies on it with 55% frequency and most in all scenarios. It boasts respectable velocity, strong arm-side movement that’s uncharacteristic for a fastball, and varied location in all parts of the plate. These elements explain why opponents bat only .222 against it despite his reliance on it. Gant’s velocity is accentuated by an abnormally strong differential in velocity between his pitches. Most pitchers have their change-ups be seven to eight mph slower. Arizona’s Zack Greinke is on one end of this spectrum—his change-up averages only a few miles per hour less. Gant is on the other, whose change-up averages 11 mph less. This change of pace keeps hitters off-balance, particularly because he also throws the change-up frequently enough in all scenarios so that batters don’t know if a 93 mph heater is coming or an 82 mph change-up with vertical bite and decent arm-side movement. The change is his favorite whiff pitch and it’s most effective for him with the batter ahead in the count and with two strikes.
The „under“ is hitting in 64.9% of Washington’s away games. The Nats have mustered three runs or fewer in four of their past five road games. Anthony Rendon’s health is questionable because of his hand.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
The „under“ is hitting in 75% of Washington’s Gio Gonzalez’s (7-8, 3.89 ERA) road games despite his 4.26 road ERA because oddsmakers know that bettors will want to go „over“ with him on the mound and shade the total accordingly.
Gonzalez is showing better form lately, allowing one run over seven innings in two of his last three starts. The southpaw Gonzalez relies on four different pitches with between 21 and 28 percent frequency. His most successful pitch is the fastball, which opponents slug .259 against. His velocity is lackluster, but he concentrates his pitches on areas in the strike zone where it’s more difficult to hit, on the periphery and bottom. He combines good location on the borders of the zone with strong horizontal movement that toys with the batter’s perception of whether the pitch will land in the zone for a strike or not. His sinker features very strong horizontal movement that makes it elusive and a reliable ground-ball pitch for him. But his top pitch is the fastball, which opponents slug only .259 against. He emphasizes it most in every situation against same-handed batters, but features his breaking and off-speed stuff against righties.
St. Louis is hitting well lately, but on the road. The „under" hitting in 56% of Cards home games, where St. Louis’ OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) is under .700, but much higher on the road. Once hot, Matt Carpenter is batting .192 in his last seven days and his slugging is .198 lower at home than away.
