MLB Best Bet for September 29: Cardinals To Shrink The Giants
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 3:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
St. Louis' Starting Pitcher Today
A major reason why I don't understand why the Cardinals are dogged in this matchup is pitcher Michael McGreevy, who will get the start for them today.
McGreevy has done a fantastic job of inducing soft contact in all three of his starts thus far.
He induces soft contact largely by locating his pitches well.
Heat maps show his strong tendency to keep his pitches outside of the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Instead, he keeps them on the boundaries of the zone, where he uses their movement to toy with the batter's perception of whether they will land for a strike or a ball.
To be exact, McGreevy throws a good mix of pitches: from most frequent to least frequent, he throws a sinker, fastball, slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
It makes the most sense for him to throw his sinker and fastball most often because they are his most reliable pitches.
Opponents bat .115 against his sinker and .125 against his fastball.
Impressively, he has yet to yield an extra-base hit when throwing his sinker.
McGreevy's Success So Far
St. Louis is a great underdog today because it is undefeated (3-0) in McGreevy's outings.
So far, he has held the Rangers to one run in seven innings, the Pirates to zero runs in three innings — he appeared in this game as a reliever — and the Rockies to three runs in five innings.
You might say that his last outing was rather poor, but that start took place in Colorado, which is the hardest ballpark for pitchers to succeed in because of its altitude, which gives batters an advantage and affects the placement of a pitcher's pitches.
It was his first start in Colorado's venue and ultimately a successful one.
Situation and Matchup
McGreevy has owned his outings in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, as evident in his performances against the Pirates and Rangers.
San Francisco's ballpark is characteristically pitcher-friendly, so it is reasonable to expect that he will love transitioning from Colorado's ballpark, where he still pitched admirably in his last start, to San Francisco's.
He also matches up well against the Giants.
They rank 24th with a .395 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
San Francisco's Starter Today
The Giants start Hayden Birdsong today.
While Birdsong is a rookie, like McGreevy, he apparently hasn't carried with him the same element of surprise.
Opposing lineups are still trying to figure out McGreevy. Birdsong's first ever start, though, was a rather poor one.
Birdsong has remained vulnerable even to lineups that match up poorly against him on paper.
A significant difference between Birdsong and his Cardinals counterpart is that the latter appears readier for professional baseball.
Every pitcher who shows up on a mound in an MLB game has some nice stuff, but McGreevy distinguishes himself from Birdsong by locating his stuff well.
Whereas McGreevy avoids walks while placing his pitches on the borders of the strike zone, the opposite is true of Birdsong.
Birdsong walks a lot of batters — over five per nine innings — and, as heat maps show, suffers an awful tendency to leave his pitches over the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Outlook for St. Louis' Lineup
When Birdsong finally manages to throw pitches inside the strike zone, batters are commonly getting very hittable pitches because of their placement in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
The Cardinals, in their current stretch of play, are doing a much better job of seeing things. They are reducing the rate at which they swing at pitches outside the zone.
They are also more productive in general: they enter today's game having scored seven, five, eight, six, and five runs in their last five respective games.
With their strong form, they will be ready to pounce on the opportunities that Birdsong will offer them.
Bullpen
As measured by ERA, St. Louis owns the superior bullpen.
The Giants' bullpen also isn't as fresh.
Partly because its starter managed to endure less than 50 percent of the innings, San Francisco used up important relievers in order to win yesterday's one-run game.
Giants closer Ryan Walker, for example, threw 29 pitches yesterday, whereas St. Louis' sizzling closer Ryan Helsley is fresh for today's game.
If called upon, Helsley would be going for his 50th save of the season and, especially given his form, gives St. Louis an added boost if the game is close.
Takeaway
St. Louis has the better starter, the hotter lineup, and the stronger and fresher bullpen.
For the above reasons, the Cardinals are my favorite underdog today.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at +110 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 3:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
St. Louis' Starting Pitcher Today
A major reason why I don't understand why the Cardinals are dogged in this matchup is pitcher Michael McGreevy, who will get the start for them today.
McGreevy has done a fantastic job of inducing soft contact in all three of his starts thus far.
He induces soft contact largely by locating his pitches well.
Heat maps show his strong tendency to keep his pitches outside of the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Instead, he keeps them on the boundaries of the zone, where he uses their movement to toy with the batter's perception of whether they will land for a strike or a ball.
To be exact, McGreevy throws a good mix of pitches: from most frequent to least frequent, he throws a sinker, fastball, slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
It makes the most sense for him to throw his sinker and fastball most often because they are his most reliable pitches.
Opponents bat .115 against his sinker and .125 against his fastball.
Impressively, he has yet to yield an extra-base hit when throwing his sinker.
McGreevy's Success So Far
St. Louis is a great underdog today because it is undefeated (3-0) in McGreevy's outings.
So far, he has held the Rangers to one run in seven innings, the Pirates to zero runs in three innings — he appeared in this game as a reliever — and the Rockies to three runs in five innings.
You might say that his last outing was rather poor, but that start took place in Colorado, which is the hardest ballpark for pitchers to succeed in because of its altitude, which gives batters an advantage and affects the placement of a pitcher's pitches.
It was his first start in Colorado's venue and ultimately a successful one.
Situation and Matchup
McGreevy has owned his outings in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, as evident in his performances against the Pirates and Rangers.
San Francisco's ballpark is characteristically pitcher-friendly, so it is reasonable to expect that he will love transitioning from Colorado's ballpark, where he still pitched admirably in his last start, to San Francisco's.
He also matches up well against the Giants.
They rank 24th with a .395 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
San Francisco's Starter Today
The Giants start Hayden Birdsong today.
While Birdsong is a rookie, like McGreevy, he apparently hasn't carried with him the same element of surprise.
Opposing lineups are still trying to figure out McGreevy. Birdsong's first ever start, though, was a rather poor one.
Birdsong has remained vulnerable even to lineups that match up poorly against him on paper.
A significant difference between Birdsong and his Cardinals counterpart is that the latter appears readier for professional baseball.
Every pitcher who shows up on a mound in an MLB game has some nice stuff, but McGreevy distinguishes himself from Birdsong by locating his stuff well.
Whereas McGreevy avoids walks while placing his pitches on the borders of the strike zone, the opposite is true of Birdsong.
Birdsong walks a lot of batters — over five per nine innings — and, as heat maps show, suffers an awful tendency to leave his pitches over the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Outlook for St. Louis' Lineup
When Birdsong finally manages to throw pitches inside the strike zone, batters are commonly getting very hittable pitches because of their placement in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
The Cardinals, in their current stretch of play, are doing a much better job of seeing things. They are reducing the rate at which they swing at pitches outside the zone.
They are also more productive in general: they enter today's game having scored seven, five, eight, six, and five runs in their last five respective games.
With their strong form, they will be ready to pounce on the opportunities that Birdsong will offer them.
Bullpen
As measured by ERA, St. Louis owns the superior bullpen.
The Giants' bullpen also isn't as fresh.
Partly because its starter managed to endure less than 50 percent of the innings, San Francisco used up important relievers in order to win yesterday's one-run game.
Giants closer Ryan Walker, for example, threw 29 pitches yesterday, whereas St. Louis' sizzling closer Ryan Helsley is fresh for today's game.
If called upon, Helsley would be going for his 50th save of the season and, especially given his form, gives St. Louis an added boost if the game is close.
Takeaway
St. Louis has the better starter, the hotter lineup, and the stronger and fresher bullpen.
For the above reasons, the Cardinals are my favorite underdog today.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at +110 with BetOnline
