Cardinals vs. Falcons NFL Week 17 Best Bets: More Complete Atlanta to Outpace Arizona
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Marcedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Best Bet: Parlay Falcons ATS & Over if McCoy starts; Falcons ATS & Under if McSorley Starts
Arizona's Vulnerable Run Defense
The Cardinal run defense has deteriorated in quality since defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence's injury.
Because Lawrence is on IR, he is not able to show his talents as Arizona's nose tackle who specializes in stopping the run.
The vulnerability of Arizona's run defense minus Lawrence has not always been apparent, because the Cardinals got to face some of the least productive rush attacks, including three of the lowest-ranking four ones.
However, recently, they lost to Denver, for example, as Bronco running back Latavius Murray enjoyed his best game of the season.
Murray's strong performance contributed to Denver achieving in that game its second-highest point total of the season.
Likewise, again without Lawrence, Arizona gave up over 30 points to Seattle and San Francisco offenses that like to run the ball and relied on running efficiently against the Cardinal defense.
Atlanta's Rush Attack
Importantly, Arizona's losses to teams featuring strong rush attacks indicate that, against Arizona, offenses can score in the upper 20s and even in the upper 30s without having an elite quarterback.
While the Falcons lack an elite quarterback, they have a top-level rush attack.
The Falcons rank third in averaging 160.8 rushing yards per game.
Relevantly to this game, their rush attack is even more potent at home, where they average 176.3 rushing yards.
To this effect, Atlanta uniquely possesses two highly capable running backs with different skill sets, which injects a degree of variety into their rush attack that keeps opposing defenses off-balance.
On the one hand, there's running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who is shifty and elusive. On the other hand, there's Tyler Allgeier, who is strong, powerful, bruising and for these reasons difficult to bring down.
This two-pronged rush attack will overwhelm an Arizona run defense that has struggled against less dangerous ground attacks.
Desmond Ridder
A Cardinal backer might say: well, an offense doesn't need an elite quarterback to score 30 points against Arizona, but Ridder is so far from elite.
Ridder's passer rating is so poor because he has only had two starts, and the first one was poor.
That first start was against New Orleans' second-ranked pass defense.
So, not only was it Ridder's first career start, but it came against tough competition.
In his second, most recent start, Ridder markedly improved, turning out an efficient performance in which he demonstrated strong chemistry especially with the team's top wide receiver Drake London.
One might be inclined to criticize Atlanta's low-scoring output in that contest.
But the referees literally cost Atlanta two touchdowns.
On first-and-goal, a terrible intentional grounding call was given to Ridder because the referee did not see Baltimore's defender affect his throw.
Furthermore, Atlanta had a touchdown called back because a Raven defender histrionically flung himself to the ground in order to get holding called on an Atlanta wide receiver.
While Ridder doesn't have a passing touchdown -- which helps explain his low passer rating -- game footage makes his ability to match his team downfield quite apparent.
Cardinal Pass Defense
Whereas Ridder's first opponent, New Orleans, is uniquely well-stocked with pass rushers and cornerbacks, Arizona pretty much has neither the former nor the latter.
The Cardinals rank 26thin pass defense because they lack a pass rush without the departed Chandler Jones and because their cornerback play is not good enough.
Regarding the latter, things are worse than ever because their top cornerback, Byron Murphy, had to be placed on Injured Reserve.
In sum, Ridder will have all day to throw and to find, above all, London but also others, such as Patterson.
Arizona's Quarterback Situation
With Kyler Murray on IR, Arizona is going to start either Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley.
The difference is decisive. McCoy is the efficient veteran. McSorley is the terribly inaccurate, low-IQ youngster.
If McCoy can play, he can connect especially with former All-Pro selection DeAndre Hopkins.
Atlanta's pass defense ranks one spot better than Arizona's, although I still like the Falcons because Arizona's rush attack is not nearly as strong as Atlanta's -- Arizona ranks 20thin rush offense and no longer possesses the scrambling services of injured quarterback Kyler Murray -- and because Ridder does not share McCoy's interception problem.
With McSorley, Arizona would field an unproven passer who is completing just barely over 50 percent of his attempts.
If McCoy plays, I will parlay Atlanta with the "over."
If McSorley plays, I will parlay Atlanta with the "under."
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Marcedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Best Bet: Parlay Falcons ATS & Over if McCoy starts; Falcons ATS & Under if McSorley Starts
Arizona's Vulnerable Run Defense
The Cardinal run defense has deteriorated in quality since defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence's injury.
Because Lawrence is on IR, he is not able to show his talents as Arizona's nose tackle who specializes in stopping the run.
The vulnerability of Arizona's run defense minus Lawrence has not always been apparent, because the Cardinals got to face some of the least productive rush attacks, including three of the lowest-ranking four ones.
However, recently, they lost to Denver, for example, as Bronco running back Latavius Murray enjoyed his best game of the season.
Murray's strong performance contributed to Denver achieving in that game its second-highest point total of the season.
Likewise, again without Lawrence, Arizona gave up over 30 points to Seattle and San Francisco offenses that like to run the ball and relied on running efficiently against the Cardinal defense.
Atlanta's Rush Attack
Importantly, Arizona's losses to teams featuring strong rush attacks indicate that, against Arizona, offenses can score in the upper 20s and even in the upper 30s without having an elite quarterback.
While the Falcons lack an elite quarterback, they have a top-level rush attack.
The Falcons rank third in averaging 160.8 rushing yards per game.
Relevantly to this game, their rush attack is even more potent at home, where they average 176.3 rushing yards.
To this effect, Atlanta uniquely possesses two highly capable running backs with different skill sets, which injects a degree of variety into their rush attack that keeps opposing defenses off-balance.
On the one hand, there's running back Cordarrelle Patterson, who is shifty and elusive. On the other hand, there's Tyler Allgeier, who is strong, powerful, bruising and for these reasons difficult to bring down.
This two-pronged rush attack will overwhelm an Arizona run defense that has struggled against less dangerous ground attacks.
Desmond Ridder
A Cardinal backer might say: well, an offense doesn't need an elite quarterback to score 30 points against Arizona, but Ridder is so far from elite.
Ridder's passer rating is so poor because he has only had two starts, and the first one was poor.
That first start was against New Orleans' second-ranked pass defense.
So, not only was it Ridder's first career start, but it came against tough competition.
In his second, most recent start, Ridder markedly improved, turning out an efficient performance in which he demonstrated strong chemistry especially with the team's top wide receiver Drake London.
One might be inclined to criticize Atlanta's low-scoring output in that contest.
But the referees literally cost Atlanta two touchdowns.
On first-and-goal, a terrible intentional grounding call was given to Ridder because the referee did not see Baltimore's defender affect his throw.
Furthermore, Atlanta had a touchdown called back because a Raven defender histrionically flung himself to the ground in order to get holding called on an Atlanta wide receiver.
While Ridder doesn't have a passing touchdown -- which helps explain his low passer rating -- game footage makes his ability to match his team downfield quite apparent.
Cardinal Pass Defense
Whereas Ridder's first opponent, New Orleans, is uniquely well-stocked with pass rushers and cornerbacks, Arizona pretty much has neither the former nor the latter.
The Cardinals rank 26thin pass defense because they lack a pass rush without the departed Chandler Jones and because their cornerback play is not good enough.
Regarding the latter, things are worse than ever because their top cornerback, Byron Murphy, had to be placed on Injured Reserve.
In sum, Ridder will have all day to throw and to find, above all, London but also others, such as Patterson.
Arizona's Quarterback Situation
With Kyler Murray on IR, Arizona is going to start either Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley.
The difference is decisive. McCoy is the efficient veteran. McSorley is the terribly inaccurate, low-IQ youngster.
If McCoy can play, he can connect especially with former All-Pro selection DeAndre Hopkins.
Atlanta's pass defense ranks one spot better than Arizona's, although I still like the Falcons because Arizona's rush attack is not nearly as strong as Atlanta's -- Arizona ranks 20thin rush offense and no longer possesses the scrambling services of injured quarterback Kyler Murray -- and because Ridder does not share McCoy's interception problem.
With McSorley, Arizona would field an unproven passer who is completing just barely over 50 percent of his attempts.
If McCoy plays, I will parlay Atlanta with the "over."
If McSorley plays, I will parlay Atlanta with the "under."
