Cardinals vs. Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, June 13, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Cardinal Team Form
Despite the fact that a team sends out a different starting pitcher for every game, team form is a valuable thing to consider.
No matter who is pitching, the Cardinals are struggling to win any games. Currently, they are suffering a 2-10 run.
Carlos Martinez
In those two wins, St. Louis was able to count on a solid performance from its starting pitcher.
This fact makes a win for the Cardinals tonight seem all the less likely because tonight's starting pitcher for them, Carlos Martinez, is experiencing awful form.
He has allowed 15 earned runs in his past two starts, totaling 4.2 innings, combined.
Several flaws in his game prevent him from surviving five innings. He is inducing soft contact very rarely. He is also struggling to locate his pitches in the strike zone.
Considering these flaws, you might wonder: if Carlos is so bad, why doesn't he get relegated to Triple-A?
The answer is that this team has no other choice. Jack Flaherty is out until early August with a bad oblique.
Kwang-Hyun Kim is out indefinitely because of his back.
Miles Mikolas is out at least until August with forearm problems.
St. Louis lacks the depth in their pitching rotation to do anything with Carlos except feed him to opposing lineups.
Cub Batters vs. Martinez
Chicago has scored seven or eight runs in three of its past four games.
Look out especially for Ian Happ and Anthony Rizzo. In a significantly sized data sample, both are slugging over .550 in their respective career against Martinez.
Other Cub players still hit Carlos well without generating as much power against him. Jason Heyward, for example, is, 10-of-34 (.294) against Martinez while Willson Contreras is 7-of-21 (.333) against him.
Zach Davies
Contrary to his Cardinal counterpart, Cub starter Zach Davies is enjoying strong form.
Davies has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his past four starts while enduring at least five innings in those three starts.
He distinguishes himself from Carlos also by generating a lot more soft contact. Davies' change-up is particularly effective.
Batters often fail to make any contact with this pitch. He keeps his change-up low, gives it strong movement, and creates a change of pace with it, relative to his other pitches, in order to keep hitters off-balance.
Also note that Davies is in a profitable spot tonight. He's generating +3.7 units in night games and +4.3 units when his team is favored in his start.
Cardinal Batters vs. Davies
Lately, St. Louis has maybe hit well for one inning, if this team hits well at all, and one good inning isn't enough.
A Cardinal optimist might point to the strong numbers that Cardinal batters generally own against Davies.
But these numbers reflect performances in earlier years when Davies was on a different team under a different pitching coach. For tonight's game, we're not focused on the past, but on the here-and-now.
In his last three starts, Davies has allowed two earned runs or fewer when facing the Cards.
Cubs' Bullpen
There are plenty of Cub relievers available and at least fresh enough to protect the lead that Davies' pitching will help secure.
Dan Winkler owns a 0.79 ERA. He pitched yesterday, but didn't throw too many pitches, and reliably pitches back-to-back.
Ryan Tepera, Keegan Thompson, and Dillon Maples are all fresh after resting yesterday. All three pitchers own an ERA better than 2.10.
Cubs Team Form
Unlike St. Louis, the Cubs are hot and they've been one of the best teams for an extended period of time now.
Currently, the Cubs are experiencing a four-game winning streak. They won all four of those games by multiple runs.
This last trend is worth noting because the Cub money-line opened a bit on the expensive side. If the line moves in Chicago's direction before you can place your wager on Chicago, you may want to consider playing the Cubs on the run-line.
Furthermore, Chicago has won five straight and eight of their last nine home games.
Best Bet: Cubs ML at -135 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, June 13, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Cardinal Team Form
Despite the fact that a team sends out a different starting pitcher for every game, team form is a valuable thing to consider.
No matter who is pitching, the Cardinals are struggling to win any games. Currently, they are suffering a 2-10 run.
Carlos Martinez
In those two wins, St. Louis was able to count on a solid performance from its starting pitcher.
This fact makes a win for the Cardinals tonight seem all the less likely because tonight's starting pitcher for them, Carlos Martinez, is experiencing awful form.
He has allowed 15 earned runs in his past two starts, totaling 4.2 innings, combined.
Several flaws in his game prevent him from surviving five innings. He is inducing soft contact very rarely. He is also struggling to locate his pitches in the strike zone.
Considering these flaws, you might wonder: if Carlos is so bad, why doesn't he get relegated to Triple-A?
The answer is that this team has no other choice. Jack Flaherty is out until early August with a bad oblique.
Kwang-Hyun Kim is out indefinitely because of his back.
Miles Mikolas is out at least until August with forearm problems.
St. Louis lacks the depth in their pitching rotation to do anything with Carlos except feed him to opposing lineups.
Cub Batters vs. Martinez
Chicago has scored seven or eight runs in three of its past four games.
Look out especially for Ian Happ and Anthony Rizzo. In a significantly sized data sample, both are slugging over .550 in their respective career against Martinez.
Other Cub players still hit Carlos well without generating as much power against him. Jason Heyward, for example, is, 10-of-34 (.294) against Martinez while Willson Contreras is 7-of-21 (.333) against him.
Zach Davies
Contrary to his Cardinal counterpart, Cub starter Zach Davies is enjoying strong form.
Davies has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his past four starts while enduring at least five innings in those three starts.
He distinguishes himself from Carlos also by generating a lot more soft contact. Davies' change-up is particularly effective.
Batters often fail to make any contact with this pitch. He keeps his change-up low, gives it strong movement, and creates a change of pace with it, relative to his other pitches, in order to keep hitters off-balance.
Also note that Davies is in a profitable spot tonight. He's generating +3.7 units in night games and +4.3 units when his team is favored in his start.
Cardinal Batters vs. Davies
Lately, St. Louis has maybe hit well for one inning, if this team hits well at all, and one good inning isn't enough.
A Cardinal optimist might point to the strong numbers that Cardinal batters generally own against Davies.
But these numbers reflect performances in earlier years when Davies was on a different team under a different pitching coach. For tonight's game, we're not focused on the past, but on the here-and-now.
In his last three starts, Davies has allowed two earned runs or fewer when facing the Cards.
Cubs' Bullpen
There are plenty of Cub relievers available and at least fresh enough to protect the lead that Davies' pitching will help secure.
Dan Winkler owns a 0.79 ERA. He pitched yesterday, but didn't throw too many pitches, and reliably pitches back-to-back.
Ryan Tepera, Keegan Thompson, and Dillon Maples are all fresh after resting yesterday. All three pitchers own an ERA better than 2.10.
Cubs Team Form
Unlike St. Louis, the Cubs are hot and they've been one of the best teams for an extended period of time now.
Currently, the Cubs are experiencing a four-game winning streak. They won all four of those games by multiple runs.
This last trend is worth noting because the Cub money-line opened a bit on the expensive side. If the line moves in Chicago's direction before you can place your wager on Chicago, you may want to consider playing the Cubs on the run-line.
Furthermore, Chicago has won five straight and eight of their last nine home games.
Best Bet: Cubs ML at -135 with BetOnline
