Cubbies Will Play Like Adults Against Cardinals
The Cardinals will try to bounce back tonight at 8:15 ET on Fox. Their rival Cubs embarrassed them last night in St. Louis and two different starting pitchers tonight won’t suffice to generate a different result.
Chicago Cubs (39-27) at St. Louis Cardinals (36-31)
MLB Pick: Chicago ML -109
Bettors will encounter situations where head and heart conflict. As a Cardinals fan, I am always tempted to bet them, but, based on my objective betting criteria, the Cubs look solid.
St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez (3-3, 2.50 ERA) is showing atrocious form after his month-long DL stint. In his last two games against teams that rank in the bottom half in runs per game—Miami and Cincinnati— he surrendered seven runs in 7.2 innings, walking 12 batters while only striking out 10. His velocity is fine, but his main issue is command. Problems with command are signified by variance in a pitcher’s vertical release points because if a pitcher can’t find comfort in delivering his pitches, then he won’t be able to locate them consistently. Between his two games post-DL, his five pitches showed a variation between .16 and .32 feet. Consequently, compared to his starts before hitting the DL, the ball-to-strike ratio of his fastball and change-up doubled, the same ratio of his cutter quadrupled, and he’s now throwing more balls than strikes with his slider.
Martinez is throwing less than 40% of his pitches in the zone, whereas that number had superseded 40% in his prior games. He has to throw more hittable pitches just to avoid walking every batter. Post-DL, he allowed above his season average in line drive, medium contact and hard contact percentages. Martinez might be a tempting underdog because of his low ERA, but that’s the danger of only looking at a pitcher’s ERA. A pitcher’s season-long accomplishments, as expressed by his ERA, can mask his short-term problems.
Even if he were in good form, Martinez doesn’t match-up well with the Cubs. Last season, he yielded a 4.25 ERA against them in five starts. In the past month, the Cubs rank sixth in slugging against Martinez’ two most frequent pitches, the slider and sinker, thrown by righties. The Cubs had a problem earlier in the season following up a double-digit performance with another strong performance, but they’ve responded well after the past two such occasions. Look out for Anthony Rizzo, who went 3-for-3 last night, and Willson Contreras. Both are slugging over .500 against Martinez.
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Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.48 ERA) relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it nearly half the time. It lacks velocity, but he gives it strong horizontal and vertical movement to make it more elusive. When he faces runners in scoring position, he relies especially on his change-up, which is his most effective pitch in terms of opposing slugging percentage and which cuts into his fastball usage, which is his worst pitch. His change-up is even more of a ground-ball pitch because of its sinking movement and because of how effectively he commands it. He locates it with about 70% frequency in the lowest row of the zone. He tempts batters to chase it and induces a whiff with it 20.92% of the time.
The Cards rank 27th in slugging against his top two pitches thrown in the lowest row of the zone. Hendricks shows strong form, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts, so count on him to locate his stuff well. His recent history against the Cards shows promise. In his last two starts, he yielded one run in 12.1 innings. In his other 2017 start against them, he allowed four runs, but those four runs were produced by Stephen Piscotty, who currently plays for Oakland, and Paul DeJong, who is injured. The Cards got some garbage runs last night after falling behind 11-1 after five innings. They’ve now lost five of their last seven home games, despite facing the last-placed Marlins and Padres before last night. They’re yielding -5.4 units at home.
The Cardinals will try to bounce back tonight at 8:15 ET on Fox. Their rival Cubs embarrassed them last night in St. Louis and two different starting pitchers tonight won’t suffice to generate a different result.
Chicago Cubs (39-27) at St. Louis Cardinals (36-31)
MLB Pick: Chicago ML -109
Bettors will encounter situations where head and heart conflict. As a Cardinals fan, I am always tempted to bet them, but, based on my objective betting criteria, the Cubs look solid.
St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez (3-3, 2.50 ERA) is showing atrocious form after his month-long DL stint. In his last two games against teams that rank in the bottom half in runs per game—Miami and Cincinnati— he surrendered seven runs in 7.2 innings, walking 12 batters while only striking out 10. His velocity is fine, but his main issue is command. Problems with command are signified by variance in a pitcher’s vertical release points because if a pitcher can’t find comfort in delivering his pitches, then he won’t be able to locate them consistently. Between his two games post-DL, his five pitches showed a variation between .16 and .32 feet. Consequently, compared to his starts before hitting the DL, the ball-to-strike ratio of his fastball and change-up doubled, the same ratio of his cutter quadrupled, and he’s now throwing more balls than strikes with his slider.
Martinez is throwing less than 40% of his pitches in the zone, whereas that number had superseded 40% in his prior games. He has to throw more hittable pitches just to avoid walking every batter. Post-DL, he allowed above his season average in line drive, medium contact and hard contact percentages. Martinez might be a tempting underdog because of his low ERA, but that’s the danger of only looking at a pitcher’s ERA. A pitcher’s season-long accomplishments, as expressed by his ERA, can mask his short-term problems.
Even if he were in good form, Martinez doesn’t match-up well with the Cubs. Last season, he yielded a 4.25 ERA against them in five starts. In the past month, the Cubs rank sixth in slugging against Martinez’ two most frequent pitches, the slider and sinker, thrown by righties. The Cubs had a problem earlier in the season following up a double-digit performance with another strong performance, but they’ve responded well after the past two such occasions. Look out for Anthony Rizzo, who went 3-for-3 last night, and Willson Contreras. Both are slugging over .500 against Martinez.
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Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.48 ERA) relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it nearly half the time. It lacks velocity, but he gives it strong horizontal and vertical movement to make it more elusive. When he faces runners in scoring position, he relies especially on his change-up, which is his most effective pitch in terms of opposing slugging percentage and which cuts into his fastball usage, which is his worst pitch. His change-up is even more of a ground-ball pitch because of its sinking movement and because of how effectively he commands it. He locates it with about 70% frequency in the lowest row of the zone. He tempts batters to chase it and induces a whiff with it 20.92% of the time.
The Cards rank 27th in slugging against his top two pitches thrown in the lowest row of the zone. Hendricks shows strong form, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts, so count on him to locate his stuff well. His recent history against the Cards shows promise. In his last two starts, he yielded one run in 12.1 innings. In his other 2017 start against them, he allowed four runs, but those four runs were produced by Stephen Piscotty, who currently plays for Oakland, and Paul DeJong, who is injured. The Cards got some garbage runs last night after falling behind 11-1 after five innings. They’ve now lost five of their last seven home games, despite facing the last-placed Marlins and Padres before last night. They’re yielding -5.4 units at home.
gotta pull that card lol
