Expect High-Scoring Affair Between Rivals Cubs and Cardinals on ESPN
The Cubs host the hated Cardinals tonight at 7 ET. Both lineups are primed to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing starting pitcher and help create an ‚over.‘
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: First Five ‚Over‘
Jon Lester (1-0 4.40 ERA) starts for Chicago and looks to turn around his weak start to the season. He is struggling with his command, walking 10.6% of batters faced, which is 2.8% higher than his career average. This poor walk rate is surprising considering the very high percentage at which he is throwing first-pitch strikes. Lester has the confidence to throw strikes but is lacking the stuff to finish batters off. He is also striking out 5.8% fewer batters than his career average. The main reason for his lower-quality stuff is the lack of movement which he is creating in his pitches. Lester seems to be undergoing mechanical difficulties, which are indicated by the fluctuation in opposing ground ball vs fly ball percentage.
Lester is worth fading as he tries to figure things out. The Cards are not the team against which he can rediscover success. Last season, Lester allowed an FIP of over 4 against them. The Cards match up well against the southpaw. Last season, their OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) was .777 against southpaws, .22 higher than against righties. This season, they are slacking in the category but the sample size of lefties faced is small and the room for upside is absolutely there. They should be better against lefties this season with the addition of former Marlins star Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is batting .296 in his career against southpaws, .23 higher than against righties. He has a double and a home run in eight career at-bats against Lester. Yadier Molina has been enjoying a power-filled season so far. He’s 12-for-35 with three doubles and a homer in his career vs Lester. He’s batting .288 and slugging .596 so far.
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The Cubs should be thankful that Adam Wainwright (0-2 5.06 ERA) counters for the Cards. Waino is only in the rotation because he is a long-time Cardinal icon and perhaps because he is getting paid so much money because of his awesome past with the team. Jack Flaherty is continuing to throw gems in Triple A and is primed to replace Waino, who is a shell of his former self, in the rotation.
As long as Waino is still pitching, bettors may as well take advantage. The 36-year old veteran had offseason surgery to improve issues with velocity that were plaguing him last August. His velocity is back, but unfortunately his lack of command is as well. He continues to average one more walk per nine innings than he did in his career. He is also struggling with the long ball and striking out fewer batters. Fewer strike outs is just one symptom of his deteriorating stuff. Waino is inducing fewer whiffs, fewer swings outside the zone and yet batters are making contact with pitches outside the zone at a 20% higher rate than his career average. Like Lester, he is not getting the same kind of vertical and horizontal movement in his pitches as he should. Waino, whose FIP is 1.01 higher than it was last year, has yet to show that he belongs in the rotation. While the other Cards starters have adjusted after poor starts, he (and Michael Wacha) are still getting hit hard.
Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist look unstoppable, batting over .320 for the Cubs. Addison Russell is 6-for-15 with three doubles in his career against Wainwright.
Both bullpens rank in the better half in terms of ERA, so I want to stick to a first five play. The first five ‚over‘ has hit in two of the teams’ last three series openers against each other.
The Cubs host the hated Cardinals tonight at 7 ET. Both lineups are primed to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing starting pitcher and help create an ‚over.‘
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: First Five ‚Over‘
Jon Lester (1-0 4.40 ERA) starts for Chicago and looks to turn around his weak start to the season. He is struggling with his command, walking 10.6% of batters faced, which is 2.8% higher than his career average. This poor walk rate is surprising considering the very high percentage at which he is throwing first-pitch strikes. Lester has the confidence to throw strikes but is lacking the stuff to finish batters off. He is also striking out 5.8% fewer batters than his career average. The main reason for his lower-quality stuff is the lack of movement which he is creating in his pitches. Lester seems to be undergoing mechanical difficulties, which are indicated by the fluctuation in opposing ground ball vs fly ball percentage.
Lester is worth fading as he tries to figure things out. The Cards are not the team against which he can rediscover success. Last season, Lester allowed an FIP of over 4 against them. The Cards match up well against the southpaw. Last season, their OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is .720) was .777 against southpaws, .22 higher than against righties. This season, they are slacking in the category but the sample size of lefties faced is small and the room for upside is absolutely there. They should be better against lefties this season with the addition of former Marlins star Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is batting .296 in his career against southpaws, .23 higher than against righties. He has a double and a home run in eight career at-bats against Lester. Yadier Molina has been enjoying a power-filled season so far. He’s 12-for-35 with three doubles and a homer in his career vs Lester. He’s batting .288 and slugging .596 so far.
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The Cubs should be thankful that Adam Wainwright (0-2 5.06 ERA) counters for the Cards. Waino is only in the rotation because he is a long-time Cardinal icon and perhaps because he is getting paid so much money because of his awesome past with the team. Jack Flaherty is continuing to throw gems in Triple A and is primed to replace Waino, who is a shell of his former self, in the rotation.
As long as Waino is still pitching, bettors may as well take advantage. The 36-year old veteran had offseason surgery to improve issues with velocity that were plaguing him last August. His velocity is back, but unfortunately his lack of command is as well. He continues to average one more walk per nine innings than he did in his career. He is also struggling with the long ball and striking out fewer batters. Fewer strike outs is just one symptom of his deteriorating stuff. Waino is inducing fewer whiffs, fewer swings outside the zone and yet batters are making contact with pitches outside the zone at a 20% higher rate than his career average. Like Lester, he is not getting the same kind of vertical and horizontal movement in his pitches as he should. Waino, whose FIP is 1.01 higher than it was last year, has yet to show that he belongs in the rotation. While the other Cards starters have adjusted after poor starts, he (and Michael Wacha) are still getting hit hard.
Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist look unstoppable, batting over .320 for the Cubs. Addison Russell is 6-for-15 with three doubles in his career against Wainwright.
Both bullpens rank in the better half in terms of ERA, so I want to stick to a first five play. The first five ‚over‘ has hit in two of the teams’ last three series openers against each other.
