Cardinals Red With Anger in Opener Against Rival Cubs
The Cardinals begin a three-game home series with the hated Cubs on Friday at 8:15 ET on the MLB Network. This is the spot for the Cards to wake up from their slump. Let’s bet on it.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: Cardinals
When capping my favorite team, I use feel as my guide. On the one hand, bettors should intuit a low-scoring Cardinals loss in the game after they produce double-digit runs or experience some kind of dramatic win, such as a late comeback. On the other hand, Friday’s home opener offers a positive spot for them. After an ugly road stretch, they’ll be revived by an energized Friday night home crowd anticipating the rival Cubs. St. Louis is 4-1 in a home game immediately preceded by a loss on the road. This trend is especially meaningful considering their overall struggles at home. After leaving lots of runners on base in their last game, expect the Cards to buckle down with runners in scoring position.
Cardinal Luke Weaver (5-9, 4.79 ERA) showed rust in his first start after the All-Star Break, a five-walk outing against the Cubs. He had been enjoying a strong July, allowing three runs in 14 innings and producing a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Although the young talent can be spotty with his command, he always bounces back after an unsharp performance. After each of the four starts in which allowed three walks or more, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.33 or better. In his two starts against the Cubs before the last one, he yielded an FIP under 3.20. He was the victim of an unfortunately high opposing BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) despite inducing a high soft contact rate.
Weaver has performed better lately because he is throwing more strikes and inducing batters to chase his pitches more frequently. Weaver throws a 92-97 mph fastball with well above-average spin rate more than half the time and mixes in a change-up and curveball. In his stronger games, he has a feel for elevating his fastball. His change-up has gained horizontal and vertical movement throughout the season. He throws hitters off-balance with his curveball because of its strong velocity differential with his other pitches and because he often works backwards, starting off with his curveball and finishing the batter with his fastball.
He lives and dies with his favorite pitch. In his two unlucky starts against the Cubs, they batted .500 against his fastball. But, their average exit velocity against it was only 77 mph, meaning that they failed to make good contact with it. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, they strongly overachieved against his fastball.
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In his last start, Chicago’s Mike Montgomery (3-3, 3.73 ERA) benefitted from facing the Cardinals a day after they produced 18 runs. Before his last start, Montgomery yielded an FIP over 4.00 in four straight outings. He is a poor bet against division opponents, yielding -4.1 units against them.
The southpaw Montgomery relies on four different pitches with between 16 and 34 percent frequency. His favorite pitch is the sinker. He relies on it most in every scenario except with two strikes. It’s lost some velocity even since he switched into the starting rotation, averaging 91 mph in July. Four of his last seven opponents slugged .500 or better against it. St. Louis ranks second in slugging against the sinker from lefties and is metrically the most underachieving team against it.
Watch for Matt Carpenter, the NL player of the week. He had averaged a strong exit velocity, but suffered from an unluckily low BABIP and was due for statistical progression. In his past seven days, he is slugging 1.231. He slugs .631 against lefties. Yadier Molina and Tommy Pham are batting .300 in July.
The Cardinals begin a three-game home series with the hated Cubs on Friday at 8:15 ET on the MLB Network. This is the spot for the Cards to wake up from their slump. Let’s bet on it.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Pick: Cardinals
When capping my favorite team, I use feel as my guide. On the one hand, bettors should intuit a low-scoring Cardinals loss in the game after they produce double-digit runs or experience some kind of dramatic win, such as a late comeback. On the other hand, Friday’s home opener offers a positive spot for them. After an ugly road stretch, they’ll be revived by an energized Friday night home crowd anticipating the rival Cubs. St. Louis is 4-1 in a home game immediately preceded by a loss on the road. This trend is especially meaningful considering their overall struggles at home. After leaving lots of runners on base in their last game, expect the Cards to buckle down with runners in scoring position.
Cardinal Luke Weaver (5-9, 4.79 ERA) showed rust in his first start after the All-Star Break, a five-walk outing against the Cubs. He had been enjoying a strong July, allowing three runs in 14 innings and producing a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Although the young talent can be spotty with his command, he always bounces back after an unsharp performance. After each of the four starts in which allowed three walks or more, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) of 3.33 or better. In his two starts against the Cubs before the last one, he yielded an FIP under 3.20. He was the victim of an unfortunately high opposing BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) despite inducing a high soft contact rate.
Weaver has performed better lately because he is throwing more strikes and inducing batters to chase his pitches more frequently. Weaver throws a 92-97 mph fastball with well above-average spin rate more than half the time and mixes in a change-up and curveball. In his stronger games, he has a feel for elevating his fastball. His change-up has gained horizontal and vertical movement throughout the season. He throws hitters off-balance with his curveball because of its strong velocity differential with his other pitches and because he often works backwards, starting off with his curveball and finishing the batter with his fastball.
He lives and dies with his favorite pitch. In his two unlucky starts against the Cubs, they batted .500 against his fastball. But, their average exit velocity against it was only 77 mph, meaning that they failed to make good contact with it. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, they strongly overachieved against his fastball.
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In his last start, Chicago’s Mike Montgomery (3-3, 3.73 ERA) benefitted from facing the Cardinals a day after they produced 18 runs. Before his last start, Montgomery yielded an FIP over 4.00 in four straight outings. He is a poor bet against division opponents, yielding -4.1 units against them.
The southpaw Montgomery relies on four different pitches with between 16 and 34 percent frequency. His favorite pitch is the sinker. He relies on it most in every scenario except with two strikes. It’s lost some velocity even since he switched into the starting rotation, averaging 91 mph in July. Four of his last seven opponents slugged .500 or better against it. St. Louis ranks second in slugging against the sinker from lefties and is metrically the most underachieving team against it.
Watch for Matt Carpenter, the NL player of the week. He had averaged a strong exit velocity, but suffered from an unluckily low BABIP and was due for statistical progression. In his past seven days, he is slugging 1.231. He slugs .631 against lefties. Yadier Molina and Tommy Pham are batting .300 in July.
