MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets Of The Day
Cubs vs Cardinals
Thursday, September 19 2019 at Wrigley Field
St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) has displayed superb form for a prolonged period of time. He’s allowed one run or fewer against 10 of his last 15 lineups faced, extending back to July.
His solid performances have had demonstrable repercussions for the total. The „under“ has hit in each of his last four starts and it’s 10-1-3 since July. The „under“ is also hitting in 59.3 percent of his starts overall and 61.5 percent of them on the road.
During the second half of the season, Flaherty has injected more variety into his arsenal. He throws his fastball less while increasing his sinker, slider, and curveball usage. Nine of his last 10 opponents went hitless against his sinker. His sider yielded a .115 BA in July, .140 in August, and .000 in September. His curveball enjoys a .091 opposing BA in this month.
His success with these three pitches is relevant because they combine to form over 60 percent of his arsenal. One can attribute his success to the strong movement that he gives his pitches, the similar release points that some of them enjoy, with which he conceals his delivery, and his reliable command. He’s more consistent about starting off the count with a strike, throwing strikes in general, and his ability to closely miss the strike zone induces a higher rate of swings at would-be balls.
Since his improvement began in July, he faced the Cubs once and allowed only one hit in seven innings. Even accounting for his starts prior to July. active Cub batters own poor numbers against him.
In 110 career at-bats, their BA is .182 and slugging rate .373 against Flaherty. Kris Bryant, for example, is 2-for-15 (.133) with eight strikeouts.
Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26 ERA) also enjoys strong form, allowing one run in each of his last three starts and one run or fewer in four of his last five starts. He’s been especially reliable at Wrigley Field, where he boasts a 1.75 ERA. He’s allowed one run or fewer in six of his last seven home starts.
Like Flaherty, Hendricks is an unambiguous „under“ pitcher. The „under“ is hitting in 65.4 percent of his starts overall, in 69.2 percent of his home starts, and in 75 percent of his starts against NL Central rivals.
Hendricks does not so much rely on velocity. But he’s developed more robustly his ability to conceal pitches while using their distinctive qualities to his advantage.
For example, he keeps the release points of his sinker and curveball similar to each other with the result that batters require time to discern which pitch approaches them and must belatedly adjust their swing to either a sinker with strong arm-side movement or a curveball with powerful glove-side motion.
This season, Hendricks has owned Cardinal batters. In three starts, he yields an 0.39 ERA against them. Expect little from Paul DeJong, who’s 3-for-27 (.111) lifetime against the Professor.
Best Bet: First-Half Under
Yankees vs Angels
Thursday, September 19 2019 at Yankee Stadium
New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (10-8, 4.60 ERA) looks forward to returning home, where he’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. The Yankees have won in seven of his last eight starts at home.with six of those wins coming by multiple runs. On the season, his home backers have gained a unit.
Tanaka is in a favorable spot as he’s coming off five days’ rest, in which scenario his ERA is 3.70. Also, given his success at home, his ERA in Yankee Stadium is 3.24, compared to 6.16 on the road.
Lately, Angel batters don’t look ready to hit anybody. In their past nine games, they’re averaging just over two runs per game. Six of those 20 runs came in one game. Expect nothing from superstar Mike Trout, whose injury will prevent him from improving his already strong numbers against Tanaka.
L.A.’s Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.76 ERA) has been a consistent punching bag lately, having allowed four runs or more in each of his last three starts. While Heaney is a profitable pitcher overall, he’s amassed the bulk of his profit from his starts as the favored pitcher. As the underdog, the Angels are 2-4, yielding -1.6 units.
Heaney is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher who’s having struggling to keep batters’ fly balls from leaving the ballpark. He’s allowed a total of five home runs in his past three games combined.
As a fly ball pitcher, Heaney presents the Yanks with a propitious match-up for they slug .505 against fly ball pitchers and promise to defend their top rank in home runs per game.
In 51 career at-bats against Heaney, Yankee hitters are hitting .294. Edwin Encarnacion has hit two homers.
Tonight’s spot is perfect for New York because the Yanks are coming off a loss. New York has won its last eight games after a loss by a combined margin of victory of 50 runs or an average of 4+ runs per bounce-back win.
Best Bet: Yankees RL
Cubs vs Cardinals
Thursday, September 19 2019 at Wrigley Field
St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) has displayed superb form for a prolonged period of time. He’s allowed one run or fewer against 10 of his last 15 lineups faced, extending back to July.
His solid performances have had demonstrable repercussions for the total. The „under“ has hit in each of his last four starts and it’s 10-1-3 since July. The „under“ is also hitting in 59.3 percent of his starts overall and 61.5 percent of them on the road.
During the second half of the season, Flaherty has injected more variety into his arsenal. He throws his fastball less while increasing his sinker, slider, and curveball usage. Nine of his last 10 opponents went hitless against his sinker. His sider yielded a .115 BA in July, .140 in August, and .000 in September. His curveball enjoys a .091 opposing BA in this month.
His success with these three pitches is relevant because they combine to form over 60 percent of his arsenal. One can attribute his success to the strong movement that he gives his pitches, the similar release points that some of them enjoy, with which he conceals his delivery, and his reliable command. He’s more consistent about starting off the count with a strike, throwing strikes in general, and his ability to closely miss the strike zone induces a higher rate of swings at would-be balls.
Since his improvement began in July, he faced the Cubs once and allowed only one hit in seven innings. Even accounting for his starts prior to July. active Cub batters own poor numbers against him.
In 110 career at-bats, their BA is .182 and slugging rate .373 against Flaherty. Kris Bryant, for example, is 2-for-15 (.133) with eight strikeouts.
Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26 ERA) also enjoys strong form, allowing one run in each of his last three starts and one run or fewer in four of his last five starts. He’s been especially reliable at Wrigley Field, where he boasts a 1.75 ERA. He’s allowed one run or fewer in six of his last seven home starts.
Like Flaherty, Hendricks is an unambiguous „under“ pitcher. The „under“ is hitting in 65.4 percent of his starts overall, in 69.2 percent of his home starts, and in 75 percent of his starts against NL Central rivals.
Hendricks does not so much rely on velocity. But he’s developed more robustly his ability to conceal pitches while using their distinctive qualities to his advantage.
For example, he keeps the release points of his sinker and curveball similar to each other with the result that batters require time to discern which pitch approaches them and must belatedly adjust their swing to either a sinker with strong arm-side movement or a curveball with powerful glove-side motion.
This season, Hendricks has owned Cardinal batters. In three starts, he yields an 0.39 ERA against them. Expect little from Paul DeJong, who’s 3-for-27 (.111) lifetime against the Professor.
Best Bet: First-Half Under
Yankees vs Angels
Thursday, September 19 2019 at Yankee Stadium
New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (10-8, 4.60 ERA) looks forward to returning home, where he’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. The Yankees have won in seven of his last eight starts at home.with six of those wins coming by multiple runs. On the season, his home backers have gained a unit.
Tanaka is in a favorable spot as he’s coming off five days’ rest, in which scenario his ERA is 3.70. Also, given his success at home, his ERA in Yankee Stadium is 3.24, compared to 6.16 on the road.
Lately, Angel batters don’t look ready to hit anybody. In their past nine games, they’re averaging just over two runs per game. Six of those 20 runs came in one game. Expect nothing from superstar Mike Trout, whose injury will prevent him from improving his already strong numbers against Tanaka.
L.A.’s Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.76 ERA) has been a consistent punching bag lately, having allowed four runs or more in each of his last three starts. While Heaney is a profitable pitcher overall, he’s amassed the bulk of his profit from his starts as the favored pitcher. As the underdog, the Angels are 2-4, yielding -1.6 units.
Heaney is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher who’s having struggling to keep batters’ fly balls from leaving the ballpark. He’s allowed a total of five home runs in his past three games combined.
As a fly ball pitcher, Heaney presents the Yanks with a propitious match-up for they slug .505 against fly ball pitchers and promise to defend their top rank in home runs per game.
In 51 career at-bats against Heaney, Yankee hitters are hitting .294. Edwin Encarnacion has hit two homers.
Tonight’s spot is perfect for New York because the Yanks are coming off a loss. New York has won its last eight games after a loss by a combined margin of victory of 50 runs or an average of 4+ runs per bounce-back win.
Best Bet: Yankees RL
