Last Chance Value Picks For Betting Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Monday, October 19, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Andy Dalton
For the first time this season, Andy Dalton will start at quarterback over the injured Dak Prescott.
I fear that, due to recency bias, perception of Dalton is shaped by his most recent season in Cincinnati.
To be sure, Dalton had an atrocious season in terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio, completion percentage, and passer rating.
But one has to remember what surrounded Dalton in that season.
In 2019, Dalton suffered from an offensive line that ranked below-average in pass protection. His offensive line was likewise close to bottom-ranked in terms of offering him run support.
Furthermore, his favorite wide receiver A.J. Green was injured.
Folks forget that, in 2018, Dalton threw for 2,566 yards in 11 games and for 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. His passer rating was 89.6.
PFF ranked Dalton in 2018 as the 12th-best quarterback and graded him on-par with the current season of DeShaun Watson and Kyler Murray.
For sake of comparison, Dak himself ranked 17th-best — five spots below Dalton — among starting quarterbacks in 2018.
Andy achieved these numbers despite playing behind an offensive line that ranked 19th in pass protection as measured by adjusted sack rate allowed.
Dalton’s Weapons
In 2018, Dalton had primarily two weapons to throw to in Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green when they were healthy. Green and Boyd were the only Bengal wide receivers to surpass 210 yards.
Right now, Dallas has much more ability surrounding Dak.
For starters, the Cowboys own the ninth best pass protection unit as measured by adjusted sack rate and one of the very best run-blocking units. It helps to force defenses to focus on stopping running back Ezekiel Elliott.
Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are both accruing over 80 yards per game. Target-wise, Michael Gallup has largely been ignored by Dak. But he’s amassing more YPC than he did last year when he eclipsed 1,100 yards receiving.
There’s also Dalton Schultz at tight end who’s had a few big games catching passes so far.
Arizona’s Pass Defense
With its NFL prop bets, Bovada is asking Dalton to throw for more than 287 yards.
Note that in 2018 Dalton eclipsed that figure twice. He threw for over 300 yards against Atlanta and Carolina. Both pass defenses ranked bottom-10 in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
I love DVOA as a metric because it adjusts for the quality of the opponent.
Arizona’s pass defense, on the surface, appears pretty good only based on some superficial stats that do not account for opponent quality.
So far, the Cardinals have yet to encounter a quarterback who ranks top-10 in passer rating. They’ve faced one quarterback who ranks top-20 in passing yards. The man who ranks 21st in passing yards, Matt Stafford, had the best game of his season against these Cardinals.
By accounting for opponent quality, DVOA has the Cardinals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Cardinals are likely worse than their ranking suggests now that they must miss the services of elite pass rusher, injured Chandler Jones.
So, in terms of quality, the defense that Dalton faces tonight is qualitatively on-par with those that he amassed easily over 300 yards against in 2018.
Plus, remember, Dalton in 2020 has a better offensive line, greater run support, and a more elite pass-catching crew.
Dak’s Numbers
Dak was the NFL’s leading passer in terms of yardage. He threw for over 400 yards in three different games, only failing to reach 300 yards against the Rams’ third-best pass defense and in his last game that he left early.
I do not see why Dalton can’t eclipse his 2018 performance level — where he was better than Dak — with all of his weapons and with Arizona’s poor and poorly tested pass defense.
Also, it’s not at all accurate to say that Dak’s huge passing numbers reflect his performance ability. One has to keep in mind how porous Dallas’ defense is.
Currently, the Cowboys rank last in allowing 36 points per game.
Scoring breeds more scoring. In terms of pass play percentage, the Cowboys are a more passing-focused offense than Cincinnati was in 2018 and part of the reason for this is all of the scoring that the Cowboys allow. They have to keep pace with their opponent through the air.
Best Bet: Andy Dalton Over 287 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada
Michael Gallup
When Dak was healthy, Gallup was receiving minimal attention from his quarterback.
His lackluster numbers are leading oddsmakers to disrespect him.
This disrespect presupposes that Dalton will favor the same targets which Dak did, which is a baseless and ridiculous presupposition to make. Different quarterbacks will fall in love more or less with different targets.
In fact, Dalton already seems to love Gallup. When Dalton came into last Sunday's game, Gallup finally began putting up good numbers as Dalton hit him for pass completions of 19 and 38 yards, respectively.
Gallup’s 38-yard grab was a nice-looking one as he managed to catch the pass in bounds with his excellent footwork.
So, keep in mind that the over/under for Gallup’s yardage total is much too low.
Best Bet: Michael Gallup Over 43 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Monday, October 19, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Andy Dalton
For the first time this season, Andy Dalton will start at quarterback over the injured Dak Prescott.
I fear that, due to recency bias, perception of Dalton is shaped by his most recent season in Cincinnati.
To be sure, Dalton had an atrocious season in terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio, completion percentage, and passer rating.
But one has to remember what surrounded Dalton in that season.
In 2019, Dalton suffered from an offensive line that ranked below-average in pass protection. His offensive line was likewise close to bottom-ranked in terms of offering him run support.
Furthermore, his favorite wide receiver A.J. Green was injured.
Folks forget that, in 2018, Dalton threw for 2,566 yards in 11 games and for 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. His passer rating was 89.6.
PFF ranked Dalton in 2018 as the 12th-best quarterback and graded him on-par with the current season of DeShaun Watson and Kyler Murray.
For sake of comparison, Dak himself ranked 17th-best — five spots below Dalton — among starting quarterbacks in 2018.
Andy achieved these numbers despite playing behind an offensive line that ranked 19th in pass protection as measured by adjusted sack rate allowed.
Dalton’s Weapons
In 2018, Dalton had primarily two weapons to throw to in Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green when they were healthy. Green and Boyd were the only Bengal wide receivers to surpass 210 yards.
Right now, Dallas has much more ability surrounding Dak.
For starters, the Cowboys own the ninth best pass protection unit as measured by adjusted sack rate and one of the very best run-blocking units. It helps to force defenses to focus on stopping running back Ezekiel Elliott.
Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are both accruing over 80 yards per game. Target-wise, Michael Gallup has largely been ignored by Dak. But he’s amassing more YPC than he did last year when he eclipsed 1,100 yards receiving.
There’s also Dalton Schultz at tight end who’s had a few big games catching passes so far.
Arizona’s Pass Defense
With its NFL prop bets, Bovada is asking Dalton to throw for more than 287 yards.
Note that in 2018 Dalton eclipsed that figure twice. He threw for over 300 yards against Atlanta and Carolina. Both pass defenses ranked bottom-10 in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
I love DVOA as a metric because it adjusts for the quality of the opponent.
Arizona’s pass defense, on the surface, appears pretty good only based on some superficial stats that do not account for opponent quality.
So far, the Cardinals have yet to encounter a quarterback who ranks top-10 in passer rating. They’ve faced one quarterback who ranks top-20 in passing yards. The man who ranks 21st in passing yards, Matt Stafford, had the best game of his season against these Cardinals.
By accounting for opponent quality, DVOA has the Cardinals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Cardinals are likely worse than their ranking suggests now that they must miss the services of elite pass rusher, injured Chandler Jones.
So, in terms of quality, the defense that Dalton faces tonight is qualitatively on-par with those that he amassed easily over 300 yards against in 2018.
Plus, remember, Dalton in 2020 has a better offensive line, greater run support, and a more elite pass-catching crew.
Dak’s Numbers
Dak was the NFL’s leading passer in terms of yardage. He threw for over 400 yards in three different games, only failing to reach 300 yards against the Rams’ third-best pass defense and in his last game that he left early.
I do not see why Dalton can’t eclipse his 2018 performance level — where he was better than Dak — with all of his weapons and with Arizona’s poor and poorly tested pass defense.
Also, it’s not at all accurate to say that Dak’s huge passing numbers reflect his performance ability. One has to keep in mind how porous Dallas’ defense is.
Currently, the Cowboys rank last in allowing 36 points per game.
Scoring breeds more scoring. In terms of pass play percentage, the Cowboys are a more passing-focused offense than Cincinnati was in 2018 and part of the reason for this is all of the scoring that the Cowboys allow. They have to keep pace with their opponent through the air.
Best Bet: Andy Dalton Over 287 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada
Michael Gallup
When Dak was healthy, Gallup was receiving minimal attention from his quarterback.
His lackluster numbers are leading oddsmakers to disrespect him.
This disrespect presupposes that Dalton will favor the same targets which Dak did, which is a baseless and ridiculous presupposition to make. Different quarterbacks will fall in love more or less with different targets.
In fact, Dalton already seems to love Gallup. When Dalton came into last Sunday's game, Gallup finally began putting up good numbers as Dalton hit him for pass completions of 19 and 38 yards, respectively.
Gallup’s 38-yard grab was a nice-looking one as he managed to catch the pass in bounds with his excellent footwork.
So, keep in mind that the over/under for Gallup’s yardage total is much too low.
Best Bet: Michael Gallup Over 43 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada
