Cardinals vs. Braves: NLDS Game 3 MLB Picks and Predictions
Braves vs Cardinals
Sunday, October 6 2019 at 4:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Busch Stadium
It was planned deliberately for Atlanta’s Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) to pitch in Game 3. The reason was that Game 3 is a road game for Atlanta. In the regular season, Soroka yielded a 1.55 ERA in 98.2 innings on the road.
He was a slight „under“ pitcher in general during the season while, on the road, he pitched a more decisive 60% to the „under“ and the „under“ hit in over 55% of his starts both as the favored pitcher and during the day.
Soroka faced St. Louis twice during the regular season, both times coming back in May. He actually did better in Atlanta where he shut out the Cards over seven innings. He faced them again 10 days later on the road and allowed one earned run in six innings while producing a nicer strikeout-to-walk ratio.
He matches up well with the Cardinals because he’s primarily a sinker-throwing pitcher. He throws this pitch 44 percent of the time and the Cards rank 24th in slugging against this pitch.
We already saw in Game 1 how St. Louis batters repeatedly hit Atlanta starter Dallas Keuchel’s sinker into the ground. They did make an adjustment when they faced Keuchel a second time, but still could only achieve a ‚push‘ on the first-half money-line by scoring a single run.
Soroka will be tougher to adjust to because he has a more robust repertoire. In particular, he amps up his slider usage especially when runners enter into scoring position. This pitch is lethal as opponents hit .156 against it. Card batters went hitless against this pitch when Soroka pitched in St. Louis.
St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA) is in the perfect spot to succeed today. He’s pitching in the postseason, where his career ERA is 3.03. He’s pitching at home, where his ERA this season is 2.56. Finally, he’s pitching during the day where his 2019 ERA is 1.61.
The difference between his performance at home versus on the road and between his day- and nighttime efforts is drastic. The betting numbers reflect this: at home, the „under“ hit in 73.3 percent of Wainwright’s starts. Even more impressively, the „under“ was 8-1 (88.9%) in Waino’s daytime starts.
Wainwright is a pretty good ground ball pitcher as he induces grounders 48.8 percent of the time. He’s able to throw a lot of his stuff off the plate, but still get hitters to put the ball in play. They tend to make weak contact with the pitch since it’s out of the strike zone, leading to an easy out.
His curveball is his most effective pitch based on opposing BA. He conceals its delivery well by making its vertical and horizontal release points extremely similar to those of his fastball. His curveball also enjoys extremely strong and unusual movement that makes it elusive. Moreover, its three most frequent strike locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
In comparing lineups, Cardinal batters have accrued 40 at-bats against Soroka. They hit .200 and haven’t produced a single extra-base hit. Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt are the only ones with two hits. The rest have one hit or zero. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 0-for-6.
Brave batters have seen much more of Waino. In 127 at-bats, they’ve hit zero homers against him. Waino allowed zero homers in four different September starts. During that four-start span, he allowed a total of one run.
Best Bet: 1H Under 4.5 runs at -108 odds with 5Dimes
Braves vs Cardinals
Sunday, October 6 2019 at 4:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Busch Stadium
It was planned deliberately for Atlanta’s Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) to pitch in Game 3. The reason was that Game 3 is a road game for Atlanta. In the regular season, Soroka yielded a 1.55 ERA in 98.2 innings on the road.
He was a slight „under“ pitcher in general during the season while, on the road, he pitched a more decisive 60% to the „under“ and the „under“ hit in over 55% of his starts both as the favored pitcher and during the day.
Soroka faced St. Louis twice during the regular season, both times coming back in May. He actually did better in Atlanta where he shut out the Cards over seven innings. He faced them again 10 days later on the road and allowed one earned run in six innings while producing a nicer strikeout-to-walk ratio.
He matches up well with the Cardinals because he’s primarily a sinker-throwing pitcher. He throws this pitch 44 percent of the time and the Cards rank 24th in slugging against this pitch.
We already saw in Game 1 how St. Louis batters repeatedly hit Atlanta starter Dallas Keuchel’s sinker into the ground. They did make an adjustment when they faced Keuchel a second time, but still could only achieve a ‚push‘ on the first-half money-line by scoring a single run.
Soroka will be tougher to adjust to because he has a more robust repertoire. In particular, he amps up his slider usage especially when runners enter into scoring position. This pitch is lethal as opponents hit .156 against it. Card batters went hitless against this pitch when Soroka pitched in St. Louis.
St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA) is in the perfect spot to succeed today. He’s pitching in the postseason, where his career ERA is 3.03. He’s pitching at home, where his ERA this season is 2.56. Finally, he’s pitching during the day where his 2019 ERA is 1.61.
The difference between his performance at home versus on the road and between his day- and nighttime efforts is drastic. The betting numbers reflect this: at home, the „under“ hit in 73.3 percent of Wainwright’s starts. Even more impressively, the „under“ was 8-1 (88.9%) in Waino’s daytime starts.
Wainwright is a pretty good ground ball pitcher as he induces grounders 48.8 percent of the time. He’s able to throw a lot of his stuff off the plate, but still get hitters to put the ball in play. They tend to make weak contact with the pitch since it’s out of the strike zone, leading to an easy out.
His curveball is his most effective pitch based on opposing BA. He conceals its delivery well by making its vertical and horizontal release points extremely similar to those of his fastball. His curveball also enjoys extremely strong and unusual movement that makes it elusive. Moreover, its three most frequent strike locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
In comparing lineups, Cardinal batters have accrued 40 at-bats against Soroka. They hit .200 and haven’t produced a single extra-base hit. Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt are the only ones with two hits. The rest have one hit or zero. Marcell Ozuna, for example, is 0-for-6.
Brave batters have seen much more of Waino. In 127 at-bats, they’ve hit zero homers against him. Waino allowed zero homers in four different September starts. During that four-start span, he allowed a total of one run.
Best Bet: 1H Under 4.5 runs at -108 odds with 5Dimes
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