Cardinals vs. Braves Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Truist Park in Atlanta
Team Rhythm
Some might think that team rhythm isn't an important factor to consider for baseball betting because, unlike in other major sports, at least one key component of the team -- the starting pitcher -- changes every game.
But there is such a thing as team rhythm. In St. Louis' case, the team can hardly figure to win.
While they did sweep the Marlins, the games were all very close and Miami is a bottom-feeder team.
The Cardinals are struggling especially against stronger teams, for which reason they've lost their last eight games as the underdog.
Including those three wins against Miami, St. Louis is suffering a prolonged 5-13 run that has brought it from 30-22 to 35-35. (This trend will alter slightly after the first leg of today's doubleheader).
Kwang Hyun Kim
Cardinal starter Kwang Hyun Kim was one pitcher to benefit from facing Miami and its 22nd-ranked lineup in terms of runs per game.
Before facing the Marlins, Kim yielded an ERA over 4.50 in three straight starts.
Kim often struggles to limit walks. Generally, his pitches find the strike zone with relatively limited frequency -- 37.8 percent of the time.
Problematically, when he throws pitches outside of the strike zone, he fails to induce batters to swing at those pitches often enough.
Kim vs. Braves Batters
As a lefty, Kim is, as you would expect. a lot stronger when facing left-handed hitting.
Whereas lefties are hitting .110 against Kim, righties are hitting .272 against him.
The Braves own plenty of solid righties with which to punish left-handed pitching, which is why the Braves collectively own the sixth-highest slugging rate so far against southpaws.
As always, look out for Ronald Acuna Jr., who leads the team with a .293 BA and .603 slugging rate.
Austin Riley is another dangerous righty. He his .293 and slugs .491 against lefties.
Guillermo Heredia is not as well known, but is extremely hot right now. He carries a five-game hitting streak into tonight's game, during which span he's elevated his slugging rate from .413 to .472.
Overall, Atlanta's lineup is sizzling. With help from the likes of Heredia, Atlanta has generated six, eight, eight, four, and nine runs in its last five respective games.
Drew Smyly
Brave starter Drew Smyly is a lefty who is all about his fastball and curveball.
Both pitches combine to make 90.9 percent of his arsenal.
He has a high first-pitch strike rate largely because of his fastball, which is also his preferred pitch in general.
Smyly is good about varying the location of his fastball. This isn't a high-velocity pitch, but he plays it well off of his curveball.
Whereas his fastball will sometimes land in an elevated spot of the strike zone and averages 92.5 mph, he'll often throw his curveball low and this latter pitch averages 78.9 mph.
So he keeps hitters off-balance by changing their eye level and changing pace.
Cardinal Batters
On paper, the Cardinals "should" be stronger against left-handed pitching.
But the reality is that they are a middle-of-the-road hitting team against lefties.
Especially right now, middle-of-the-road is much too positive of an assessment of this lineup's quality to be accurate.
Their cold lineup contributes strongly to the team's current tendency to lose.
In their past seven games, they've scored two runs or fewer six times. In the one exception, they scored four runs.
Despite the Cardinal lineup's apparent strengths on paper, opposing left-handed pitchers have contributed to its ongoing demise.
Most recently, Miami southpaw Trevor Rogers limited St. Louis to one run in six innings.
The Verdict
St. Louis' pitcher generally suffers from command problems, which he has also displayed in his previous history this season on Sunday Night Baseball's primetime stage.
Atlanta has a very hot lineup that is filled with potent right-handed hitting.
Conversely, the Cardinal lineup is cold and unable to hit anything at the moment. Overall, St. Louis suffers a negative rhythm as a team.
Because this is a double-header, it's hard to predict which arms will be fresh for the bullpen.
So it's better to confine ourselves to a first-half play.
For the above reasons, I recommend betting on the Atlanta first-half ML.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Sunday, June 20, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Truist Park in Atlanta
Team Rhythm
Some might think that team rhythm isn't an important factor to consider for baseball betting because, unlike in other major sports, at least one key component of the team -- the starting pitcher -- changes every game.
But there is such a thing as team rhythm. In St. Louis' case, the team can hardly figure to win.
While they did sweep the Marlins, the games were all very close and Miami is a bottom-feeder team.
The Cardinals are struggling especially against stronger teams, for which reason they've lost their last eight games as the underdog.
Including those three wins against Miami, St. Louis is suffering a prolonged 5-13 run that has brought it from 30-22 to 35-35. (This trend will alter slightly after the first leg of today's doubleheader).
Kwang Hyun Kim
Cardinal starter Kwang Hyun Kim was one pitcher to benefit from facing Miami and its 22nd-ranked lineup in terms of runs per game.
Before facing the Marlins, Kim yielded an ERA over 4.50 in three straight starts.
Kim often struggles to limit walks. Generally, his pitches find the strike zone with relatively limited frequency -- 37.8 percent of the time.
Problematically, when he throws pitches outside of the strike zone, he fails to induce batters to swing at those pitches often enough.
Kim vs. Braves Batters
As a lefty, Kim is, as you would expect. a lot stronger when facing left-handed hitting.
Whereas lefties are hitting .110 against Kim, righties are hitting .272 against him.
The Braves own plenty of solid righties with which to punish left-handed pitching, which is why the Braves collectively own the sixth-highest slugging rate so far against southpaws.
As always, look out for Ronald Acuna Jr., who leads the team with a .293 BA and .603 slugging rate.
Austin Riley is another dangerous righty. He his .293 and slugs .491 against lefties.
Guillermo Heredia is not as well known, but is extremely hot right now. He carries a five-game hitting streak into tonight's game, during which span he's elevated his slugging rate from .413 to .472.
Overall, Atlanta's lineup is sizzling. With help from the likes of Heredia, Atlanta has generated six, eight, eight, four, and nine runs in its last five respective games.
Drew Smyly
Brave starter Drew Smyly is a lefty who is all about his fastball and curveball.
Both pitches combine to make 90.9 percent of his arsenal.
He has a high first-pitch strike rate largely because of his fastball, which is also his preferred pitch in general.
Smyly is good about varying the location of his fastball. This isn't a high-velocity pitch, but he plays it well off of his curveball.
Whereas his fastball will sometimes land in an elevated spot of the strike zone and averages 92.5 mph, he'll often throw his curveball low and this latter pitch averages 78.9 mph.
So he keeps hitters off-balance by changing their eye level and changing pace.
Cardinal Batters
On paper, the Cardinals "should" be stronger against left-handed pitching.
But the reality is that they are a middle-of-the-road hitting team against lefties.
Especially right now, middle-of-the-road is much too positive of an assessment of this lineup's quality to be accurate.
Their cold lineup contributes strongly to the team's current tendency to lose.
In their past seven games, they've scored two runs or fewer six times. In the one exception, they scored four runs.
Despite the Cardinal lineup's apparent strengths on paper, opposing left-handed pitchers have contributed to its ongoing demise.
Most recently, Miami southpaw Trevor Rogers limited St. Louis to one run in six innings.
The Verdict
St. Louis' pitcher generally suffers from command problems, which he has also displayed in his previous history this season on Sunday Night Baseball's primetime stage.
Atlanta has a very hot lineup that is filled with potent right-handed hitting.
Conversely, the Cardinal lineup is cold and unable to hit anything at the moment. Overall, St. Louis suffers a negative rhythm as a team.
Because this is a double-header, it's hard to predict which arms will be fresh for the bullpen.
So it's better to confine ourselves to a first-half play.
For the above reasons, I recommend betting on the Atlanta first-half ML.
Best Bet: Braves First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
