MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets of the Day
Cardinals vs Braves
Thursday, October 3 2019 at 5:02 p.m. ET (TBS) at SunTrust Park
St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) makes his playoff debut. I do want to emphasize that, just because Oakland starter Sean Manaea apparently crumbled under the pressure of making a playoff debut, doesn’t mean that Mikolas will as well. Nonetheless, the complete lack of playoff experience can’t help Mikolas in any way.
What will certainly hurt Mikolas today is the long ball. Overall, preventing home runs is actually a strength of the Cardinals’ pitching staff as a whole — St. Louis pitching ranks third in allowing the fewest homers per nine innings.
But Mikolas doesn’t share in this strength. He allows 1.32 homers on the season, which is easily more than the next three Cardinal pitchers whom Atlanta would face after today. In September, his opposing home run rate rose to 1.52 and he concluded the season by allowing four homers in his last three games.
This relative vulnerability to the home run is something that Atlanta, which ranks eighth in hitting 1.54 homers per nine innings and belts slightly more at home, can exploit.
While one wouldn’t expect Atlanta batters to do much against Mikolas given their collective numbers against him, keep in mind the following: Since 2018, Mikolas has pitched 18.1 innings against Atlanta. Only five of those innings were on the road, where Mikolas yielded a 4.56 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in September of last year, in which he enjoyed a much more successful season overall.
Home/away splits are considerable for Mikolas this year. His road FIP is a full point higher both than at home and than it was last year. Nor is Mikolas the reliable daytime starter that he was last season as his daytime ERA this season is 4.59.
One Brave batter who promises to level some damage is Freddie Freeman, who appears to be fit and pain-free. Freeman is 3-for-10 (.300) against Mikolas with two homers.
Atlanta counters with the ideal pitcher in terms of experience, Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). He boasts a 3.31 postseason ERA in 10 appearances, all with Houston.
Keuchel presents somewhat of a contrast to Mikolas in terms of style. His stuff is much slower, he’s more dependent on one pitch, and he does a much better job inducing ground balls.
He matches up well with Cardinal batters because he throws his sinker about half the time. On the season, the Cards rank 21st in slugging against this pitch and in their final month of the season they ranked 20th in the category.
Active Cardinal batters have barely faced him. The exception is Paul Goldschmidt, who’s 3-for-18 (.167) with eight strikeouts.
Best Bet: Braves first-half ML at -127 odds with 5Dimes
Nationals vs Dodgers
Thursday, October 3 2019 at 8:37 p.m. ET (TBS) at Dodger Stadium
In terms of experience, Patrick Corbin (14-4, 3.26 ERA) is just the pitcher that Washington wants to lean on today as he boasts a 3.25 postseason ERA.
He was also a hot hand until his last start of the regular season. Corbin picked the perfect time to blow up when he allowed three homers on September 28 against Cleveland.
Corbin has allowed multiple home runs on four different occasions and after each time he bounced back to allow one run or fewer in the next outing.
While the spot is good for Corbin today, so is the location. As a former Diamondback, he’s had ample opportunity to pitch in Dodger Stadium. In 11 career starts there, he enjoys a 2.97 ERA.
As a left-handed pitcher, he negates the advantage that Dodger stadium gives to left-handed batters. This advantage is why L.A. likes to stack its lineup with lefty bats like team BA leader Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson. Lefty Alex Verdugo is L.A.’s second-best hitter in terms of BA. But he’s injured.
Today's match-up favors Corbin because lefties bat .190 and slug .248 against him. Bellinger is only 2-for-8 (.250) against him with a double while Seager is 4-for-25 (.160) with nine strikeouts. Muncy is hitless in three at-bats.
For our bet to hit, we need Corbin to be at least as good as L.A.’s Walker Buehler, (14-4, 3.26 ERA) who has a 3.80 career postseason ERA. His postseason career began last year and its start was rocky. But Buehler progressively improved as he gained experience, although his career postseason ERA still reflects that rocky beginning.
Like Corbin, Buehler loves to pitch in Dodger stadium, where he owns a 2.86 ERA this season. His numbers against National batters reflect his last outing against them. But that outing came in Washington. When he faced the Nats at home back in May, he allowed four hits and zero runs in seven innings.
Buehler’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He throws it about half the time, which is smart because it’s qualitatively elite. This pitch ranks in the 88th percentile in velocity and 92nd in spin, meaning that it possesses considerable blow-by and deceptive quality.
His fastball also makes him a positive match-up against a Nationals lineup that, in September, ranked 20th in slugging against the fastball from righties and now faces one of the game’s top fastball pitchers. On the season, opponents hit .211 against Buehler’s favorite pitch.
One National batter to expect little from Wild Card hero Juan Soto. He’s 0-for-5 with two strikeouts in his career against Buehler.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 runs at -115 odds with 5Dimes
Cardinals vs Braves
Thursday, October 3 2019 at 5:02 p.m. ET (TBS) at SunTrust Park
St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) makes his playoff debut. I do want to emphasize that, just because Oakland starter Sean Manaea apparently crumbled under the pressure of making a playoff debut, doesn’t mean that Mikolas will as well. Nonetheless, the complete lack of playoff experience can’t help Mikolas in any way.
What will certainly hurt Mikolas today is the long ball. Overall, preventing home runs is actually a strength of the Cardinals’ pitching staff as a whole — St. Louis pitching ranks third in allowing the fewest homers per nine innings.
But Mikolas doesn’t share in this strength. He allows 1.32 homers on the season, which is easily more than the next three Cardinal pitchers whom Atlanta would face after today. In September, his opposing home run rate rose to 1.52 and he concluded the season by allowing four homers in his last three games.
This relative vulnerability to the home run is something that Atlanta, which ranks eighth in hitting 1.54 homers per nine innings and belts slightly more at home, can exploit.
While one wouldn’t expect Atlanta batters to do much against Mikolas given their collective numbers against him, keep in mind the following: Since 2018, Mikolas has pitched 18.1 innings against Atlanta. Only five of those innings were on the road, where Mikolas yielded a 4.56 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in September of last year, in which he enjoyed a much more successful season overall.
Home/away splits are considerable for Mikolas this year. His road FIP is a full point higher both than at home and than it was last year. Nor is Mikolas the reliable daytime starter that he was last season as his daytime ERA this season is 4.59.
One Brave batter who promises to level some damage is Freddie Freeman, who appears to be fit and pain-free. Freeman is 3-for-10 (.300) against Mikolas with two homers.
Atlanta counters with the ideal pitcher in terms of experience, Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). He boasts a 3.31 postseason ERA in 10 appearances, all with Houston.
Keuchel presents somewhat of a contrast to Mikolas in terms of style. His stuff is much slower, he’s more dependent on one pitch, and he does a much better job inducing ground balls.
He matches up well with Cardinal batters because he throws his sinker about half the time. On the season, the Cards rank 21st in slugging against this pitch and in their final month of the season they ranked 20th in the category.
Active Cardinal batters have barely faced him. The exception is Paul Goldschmidt, who’s 3-for-18 (.167) with eight strikeouts.
Best Bet: Braves first-half ML at -127 odds with 5Dimes
Nationals vs Dodgers
Thursday, October 3 2019 at 8:37 p.m. ET (TBS) at Dodger Stadium
In terms of experience, Patrick Corbin (14-4, 3.26 ERA) is just the pitcher that Washington wants to lean on today as he boasts a 3.25 postseason ERA.
He was also a hot hand until his last start of the regular season. Corbin picked the perfect time to blow up when he allowed three homers on September 28 against Cleveland.
Corbin has allowed multiple home runs on four different occasions and after each time he bounced back to allow one run or fewer in the next outing.
While the spot is good for Corbin today, so is the location. As a former Diamondback, he’s had ample opportunity to pitch in Dodger Stadium. In 11 career starts there, he enjoys a 2.97 ERA.
As a left-handed pitcher, he negates the advantage that Dodger stadium gives to left-handed batters. This advantage is why L.A. likes to stack its lineup with lefty bats like team BA leader Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson. Lefty Alex Verdugo is L.A.’s second-best hitter in terms of BA. But he’s injured.
Today's match-up favors Corbin because lefties bat .190 and slug .248 against him. Bellinger is only 2-for-8 (.250) against him with a double while Seager is 4-for-25 (.160) with nine strikeouts. Muncy is hitless in three at-bats.
For our bet to hit, we need Corbin to be at least as good as L.A.’s Walker Buehler, (14-4, 3.26 ERA) who has a 3.80 career postseason ERA. His postseason career began last year and its start was rocky. But Buehler progressively improved as he gained experience, although his career postseason ERA still reflects that rocky beginning.
Like Corbin, Buehler loves to pitch in Dodger stadium, where he owns a 2.86 ERA this season. His numbers against National batters reflect his last outing against them. But that outing came in Washington. When he faced the Nats at home back in May, he allowed four hits and zero runs in seven innings.
Buehler’s favorite pitch is his fastball. He throws it about half the time, which is smart because it’s qualitatively elite. This pitch ranks in the 88th percentile in velocity and 92nd in spin, meaning that it possesses considerable blow-by and deceptive quality.
His fastball also makes him a positive match-up against a Nationals lineup that, in September, ranked 20th in slugging against the fastball from righties and now faces one of the game’s top fastball pitchers. On the season, opponents hit .211 against Buehler’s favorite pitch.
One National batter to expect little from Wild Card hero Juan Soto. He’s 0-for-5 with two strikeouts in his career against Buehler.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4 runs at -115 odds with 5Dimes
