MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Misleading Thing About John Gant Number One
There are two misleading things to note about Cardinal starter John Gant, both of which are directly relevant to the bet that I am recommending you to place on this game.
One misleading thing is Gant's form.
He seems to have perpetuated his poor form in his last start by allowing three runs in 5.1 innings.
But, in that game, he stretched himself. He had only allowed one run through five innings.
Because the Cardinals lost big yesterday, they didn't have to use up any of their top relievers.
So there will be no reason for them to extend Gant's outing too long.
Second Misleading Thing About Gant
Secondly, Gant's season-long pitch frequency stats mask changes that he has made to his repertoire.
One notable change has been the stark decrease in his slider usage.
In his last start, for example, he only threw one slider.
This change is important to note because the Tigers are relatively strong against the slider, as their slugging rate against this pitch shows.
Gant vs. Tiger Batters
Gant will look to build off of his successful first five innings last start against Atlanta's tough lineup.
He matches up well with the Tigers because he is relying more heavily on his sinker, when the Tigers would much rather see more sliders from him.
They rank 19th in slugging against the sinker from righties.
Matt Manning
Tiger Newcomer Matt Manning will make his second professional start today after limiting the Angels to two runs in five innings.
Scouting reports indicate that Manning is known for his tall frame and the velocity of his fastball.
He also boasts a curveball that drops vertically to a difficult degree and that he plays off of his high heater.
Manning vs. Cardinal Batters
I like Manning today because the Cardinal lineup has never seen him before as he is still a new face in the league.
For the past several years, a relatively high number of new starting pitchers have punished the St. Louis lineup for its lack of familiarity with them.
The Cardinal lineup also shows poor form, as it has exceeded two runs only once in the past seven games.
St. Louis' middle of the order, the well-reputed duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, are part of the problem because of their lack of productivity.
Manning and St. Louis' lack of hitting will help ensure that the game stays under the posted total.
Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Colorado's Hitting Struggles
It can be tough to generalize about how a team hits on the road because every ballpark is different.
But Colorado is an analytical exception because the Rockies play in a uniquely hitter-friendly home ballpark -- they play in high-altitude Coors Field in Denver.
So their road hitting statistics indicate how they perform, generally, in ballparks that are not so hitter-friendly.
On the road, they rank 26th in slugging against lefties.
This particular stat is interesting because their overall numbers against lefties are solid.
But this overall number just reflects how much they depend on Coors Field for their season hitting statistics.
Trevor Story is one good individual example of a Rockie hitter who is struggling to manage a single hit in road games.
Justus Sheffield vs. Colorado
Mariner starter Justus Sheffield gives up as many runs as he does largely because he can be vulnerable to the long ball.
This tendency is important to observe because the Rockies rank, by far, in last place in home runs hit on the road.
They do not possess the ability to hurt Sheffield in the way that Sheffield is most vulnerable.
When he doesn't surrender a home run, he tends to pitch well.
German Marquez
Rockie starter German Marquez has developed his pitching repertoire considerably as he no longer relies so heavily on his fastball.
Yet he is still a power pitcher who throws primarily a fastball and a slider.
Marquez matches up well against a Mariner lineup that slugs a paltry .349 at home against the fastball and slider from righties.
Moreover, Marquez has the same kind of home run tendency as Sheffield. But the M's hit just over one home run per game at home.
Picking A Side
While I like both pitchers to keep the game low-scoring, I perceive value with the Mariners because team rhythm is an important factor.
Whereas the Rockies have lost three in a row, Seattle has registered five straight victories.
Because oddsmakers don't account for form, the Mariners are still more cheaply priced. They shouldn't be.
Also note that the Rockies are 5-27 on the road, costing their backers -20.6 units in these games.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals/Tigers Under 9 at -118, Rockies/Mariners Under 8.5 at -120, & Mariners ML at +103 at +588 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Misleading Thing About John Gant Number One
There are two misleading things to note about Cardinal starter John Gant, both of which are directly relevant to the bet that I am recommending you to place on this game.
One misleading thing is Gant's form.
He seems to have perpetuated his poor form in his last start by allowing three runs in 5.1 innings.
But, in that game, he stretched himself. He had only allowed one run through five innings.
Because the Cardinals lost big yesterday, they didn't have to use up any of their top relievers.
So there will be no reason for them to extend Gant's outing too long.
Second Misleading Thing About Gant
Secondly, Gant's season-long pitch frequency stats mask changes that he has made to his repertoire.
One notable change has been the stark decrease in his slider usage.
In his last start, for example, he only threw one slider.
This change is important to note because the Tigers are relatively strong against the slider, as their slugging rate against this pitch shows.
Gant vs. Tiger Batters
Gant will look to build off of his successful first five innings last start against Atlanta's tough lineup.
He matches up well with the Tigers because he is relying more heavily on his sinker, when the Tigers would much rather see more sliders from him.
They rank 19th in slugging against the sinker from righties.
Matt Manning
Tiger Newcomer Matt Manning will make his second professional start today after limiting the Angels to two runs in five innings.
Scouting reports indicate that Manning is known for his tall frame and the velocity of his fastball.
He also boasts a curveball that drops vertically to a difficult degree and that he plays off of his high heater.
Manning vs. Cardinal Batters
I like Manning today because the Cardinal lineup has never seen him before as he is still a new face in the league.
For the past several years, a relatively high number of new starting pitchers have punished the St. Louis lineup for its lack of familiarity with them.
The Cardinal lineup also shows poor form, as it has exceeded two runs only once in the past seven games.
St. Louis' middle of the order, the well-reputed duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, are part of the problem because of their lack of productivity.
Manning and St. Louis' lack of hitting will help ensure that the game stays under the posted total.
Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Colorado's Hitting Struggles
It can be tough to generalize about how a team hits on the road because every ballpark is different.
But Colorado is an analytical exception because the Rockies play in a uniquely hitter-friendly home ballpark -- they play in high-altitude Coors Field in Denver.
So their road hitting statistics indicate how they perform, generally, in ballparks that are not so hitter-friendly.
On the road, they rank 26th in slugging against lefties.
This particular stat is interesting because their overall numbers against lefties are solid.
But this overall number just reflects how much they depend on Coors Field for their season hitting statistics.
Trevor Story is one good individual example of a Rockie hitter who is struggling to manage a single hit in road games.
Justus Sheffield vs. Colorado
Mariner starter Justus Sheffield gives up as many runs as he does largely because he can be vulnerable to the long ball.
This tendency is important to observe because the Rockies rank, by far, in last place in home runs hit on the road.
They do not possess the ability to hurt Sheffield in the way that Sheffield is most vulnerable.
When he doesn't surrender a home run, he tends to pitch well.
German Marquez
Rockie starter German Marquez has developed his pitching repertoire considerably as he no longer relies so heavily on his fastball.
Yet he is still a power pitcher who throws primarily a fastball and a slider.
Marquez matches up well against a Mariner lineup that slugs a paltry .349 at home against the fastball and slider from righties.
Moreover, Marquez has the same kind of home run tendency as Sheffield. But the M's hit just over one home run per game at home.
Picking A Side
While I like both pitchers to keep the game low-scoring, I perceive value with the Mariners because team rhythm is an important factor.
Whereas the Rockies have lost three in a row, Seattle has registered five straight victories.
Because oddsmakers don't account for form, the Mariners are still more cheaply priced. They shouldn't be.
Also note that the Rockies are 5-27 on the road, costing their backers -20.6 units in these games.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals/Tigers Under 9 at -118, Rockies/Mariners Under 8.5 at -120, & Mariners ML at +103 at +588 with BetOnline
