Cap wants some help

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Long story short. I’m in a Hilton style contest. I’m in the lead going into this last week. Some good sized money here. I’m guaranteed to finish in the top 3. Thought process here is taking both games today. Then seeing what my competitor takes and parlay or hedge on those games.

Today going with Philly +7.5 and KC -10.5

My remaining selections are down to two of these:

Minn -3.5
Atlanta +4.5
San Fran +4.5



And I’d like to take the night game. Leaning Raiders. If I need the Raiders to win it all, illl hedge with Chargers flat as well.

Basically trying to max my final outcome. But of these games, anything you hate or like more than others.

Leaned Detroit, Miami, Pitt and Houston but backed off.

Thanks if anyone has time. Picks due 4pm est.
 
Give us the details @Capaholic … how big is the lead…how many behind you…are all picks posted for contestants to see, etc?

Answers make a huge difference in strategy…
 
Capaholic said:
Long story short. I’m in a Hilton style contest. I’m in the lead going into this last week. Some good sized money here. I’m guaranteed to finish in the top 3. Thought process here is taking both games today. Then seeing what my competitor takes and parlay or hedge on those games.

Today going with Philly +7.5 and KC -10.5

My remaining selections are down to two of these:

Minn -3.5
Atlanta +4.5
San Fran +4.5



And I’d like to take the night game. Leaning Raiders. If I need the Raiders to win it all, illl hedge with Chargers flat as well.

Basically trying to max my final outcome. But of these games, anything you hate or like more than others.

Leaned Detroit, Miami, Pitt and Houston but backed off.

Thanks if anyone has time. Picks due 4pm est.
Click to expand...
Ugh, I hate to say I like Detroit. Hopefully the line gets bigger before your cut off time.
 
Up one. Third place 1.5 back. Can’t see picks till they are all in but will see them.
 
Capaholic said:
All picks released after first kick
Click to expand...
Raiders game a must pick then…

If it’s me I’m betting all the games with stale lines b/c then your opponents have to go contrarian to catch you and play into the worst (of an already bad number). I mean, look at the Vikes number for contests last week vs what it closes at after the cousins news.

Force your opposition to have to be those stale AF numbers to catch you…
 
scarf31 said:
Raiders game a must pick then…

If it’s me I’m betting all the games with stale lines b/c then your opponents have to go contrarian to catch you and play into the worst (of an already bad number). I mean, look at the Vikes number for contests last week vs what it closes at after the cousins news.

Force your opposition to have to be those stale AF numbers to catch you…
Click to expand...

Do you like the Raiders as well. Or are u just telling me to take them in that night spot. Just wondering
 
Capaholic said:
Do you like the Raiders as well. Or are u just telling me to take them in that night spot. Just wondering
Click to expand...
Do all games have a hook?

If so and it’s Raiders +3.5 I surely think that’s a play because you aren’t getting the number off 3 (and have hedge opportunities if you want to) and can freeroll that hedge opp with. LAC -3 play.

I personally think it’s an Raiders win, but strategy wise at 3.5 I think Raiders are a def play considering situation and time of the game.
 
Catching a FG against a team that chooses not to stop the run has to be attractive. Not sure if San Diego (yes!) changes their game plan with what's on the line but if not it should be a short game and Jacobs should feast/run down the clock.

Difficult week to be deciding large purses, kinda surprised they use this week.
 
Thing with Minny is they likely are playing with a lame duck coach although we already know the Bears are
 
Yes they are professionals but you have to wonder if they have any more to give for Zimmer. When they’ve had to these folded this year. Line keeps creeping toward bears too
 
Capaholic said:
Yes they are professionals but you have to wonder if they have any more to give for Zimmer. When they’ve had to these folded this year. Line keeps creeping toward bears too
Click to expand...
They may be pros but most are still twenty somethings with money and likely already one flip flop on a beach somewhere. Both teams.

And not sure if any of the Vikes actually want to play for Zimmer
 
Me

Philly +7.5, KC -10.5, Atlanta +4.5, San Fran +4.5, Vegas +3

1 behind

Atlanta, KC, SF, Tampa -8, Pitt +5.5

1.5 behind

Philly, San Fran, Vegas, Pitt, Detroit +4.5

Thanks for all the help from everyone!
 
Moral of the story, and I went against many principles, don’t get cute. Pick the games you love. Don’t go for line value (Philly). I did just fine. Played my opponents games which was good. Made out with less money but a good season in this contest
 
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