can USC cover ????

MeasyMoney

MeasyMoney

Give me Football or give me death
the line at pinny is 25.5 right now. Which is huge road chalk. But i still have a feeling they can cover after witnessing what they did to Ohio St. They are just to good and fast at every position.

Your thoughts?
 
<table class="so-table"><tbody><tr><td class="datahead" width="15%">Teams</td> <td class="datahead" width="7%">
</td> <td class="datahead">Record</td> <td class="dataheadc" width="18%">Consensus
</td> <td class="dataheadc" width="25%">Odds
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datab">USC
</td> <td class="data">
</td> <td class="data">2-0 (1-0 V) </td> <td class="datac">69.98 %</td> <td id="total_top2_25696" class="datac">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datab">OREST
</td> <td class="data">
</td> <td class="data">1-2 (1-0 H) </td> <td class="datac">30.02 %</td> <td id="spread_bottom2_25696" class="datac">25.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
See a lot of apprehension about laying the points because OSU always has played them tough in the past in Corvales.IMO this is the worst Oregon State team in a long time. No doubt USC will put up a number in the 40s or higher. The Beaver defense is laughable.I do believe the Beavers can move the chains somewhat against the Trojan D, although that could vary widely just how many yards they put up. Could be a small amount or something that makes us say that the USC D has some things to work on. I tend to say it'll be something decent, nothing embarrassing but nothing great, maybe 10-23 points, possible even 28 max. USC is coming off of a bye week right. Very tough in that spot. First Pac 10 game, in a stadium they lost their last time in, combined with the fact that Riley's team is In My Opinion not very good this year at all.--USC is a really good team but there are still some uncertainties to just how good they really are and some big chalk could expose them during the Pac 10 year. However, Oregon State is not that team.
 
I really like USC to cover this game. I think the three things you need to cover huge chalk is a quarterback who knows the offense, a good running game and a defense that can shut teams down. USC has all of that and lets look at their previous games against the Beavers:

07 24-3
USC and Oregon State both missed FG on their opening drives. USC had a terrible second half (4 drives of 4 plays or less including three three and outs) on offense. Only 3 points Oregon State got was off a fumble that OSU recovered at the USC 17. USC defense dominated them.

06 33-31 loss
USC somehow had a -4 TO rate, was 3-10 on third down, gave up 350 yards of total offense, and a special teams TD and was only a failed 2pt conversion away. They have given up 13 points to the Oregon State offense in the last six quarters.

04 28-20
Reggie Bush fumbles at the USC 18 for a FG for Oregon State, then a big play with a personal foul sets up another FG and the TD they score was set up by a 37 yard pass. Then USC goes to work and drops 28 straight on before a meaning less TD with Oregon State.

So what did we learn here? As long as USC doesn't turn the ball over or let them score a special teams/defensive touchdown, then they can pretty much handle the Beavers. My final prediction on the score: 44-10.

Stat of the game: USC has given up only four TD drives of longer than 60 yards to Oregon State the last three games and one of which was an end of game, prevent touchdown. Like I said, if USC can avoid giving them a short field, then it should be a blowout.
 
My biggest question for this game is. In the 2 games that USC has played so far, what makes us believe they won't cover this number.

Great QB Check
Great Running Game check
Great Special Teams Check
Great Defense Check.

PAC 10 that is down this year check

I expect Sanchez to have 3 TDS. McKnight should have 1, special teams should have 1, and the defense should have 1.

Week 1: Oregon St (-3.5) @ Stanford... Stan SU and ATS win
Week 2: So Car (-6) @ Vandy... Vandy SU and ATS win
Week 3: UNC @ Rutgers (-4)... UNC SU and ATS win
Week 4: WV (-3.5) @ Colorado... Col SU and ATS win...

........

with that being said, USC is a elite team and Oregon St is not. USC has another statement game in them.
 
i agree. they have been great. nothing has led us to believe they wont cover this. I will take USC all the way til 28.
 
Only things I need to know about this game:

USC is the #1 team in the country.

High profile Thursday night game.

25 point road favs.

Haven't seen a person on OSU.

I don't have an opinion on who covers, but you've got to be a bit loopy to feel comfortable with a USC bet. Those casinos didn't build themselves. Again USC may very well cover, but I'd be cautious.
 
Agree with JPicks here . First thing is Ohio State was home game and the litle things all bounced USC way . Now I pounded the shit of USC 1st H and game because they were clearly the better team and your talking about winning by DD . Here your talkinga road venue that has caused trouble in the past and winning by 4 tDS to cash . Huge differnce .

1st H vs Ohio State they stall for a FG and USC scores . Then a Ohio State punt and USC scores again now 14-3 but 14-7 wasnt out of the question . Then they drive the ballsome and miss a long but makeable FG orabout 46 Yds ...again failuer instead of 14-6 or even 14-10 still 14-3 . Then they force another punt and about 4 minutes before half . Ohio State moves the ball to about midfield and worst thing possible happens Pck 6 ! Now 21-3 when they could have moved into FG again or so w/o the INT.

So very misleading 1st H IMO . All USC breaks and not to say they didnt desreve them but little things dont always go as smoothly on the road ....

Midweek road teams have done poorly this year so far .

Just the way I see it even if USC gets there 42 cant say I dont think Oregon State gets there 17 .

Not crazy about fading USC but about as good as spot any since everyone keeps talikng Ohio State and they didnt shine asmuch as 35-3 indicates IMO....

Pretty strong lean to Orgeon State if they break 20 they cover IMO .:cheers:
 
Look at the last 3 games when playing in Corvallis. OSU has covered each.

USC does not do well in Corvallis. Just a fact.

If this game was at the Colliseum, lay the 28 and relax.
 
RJ Esq said:
Look at the last 3 games when playing in Corvallis. OSU has covered each.

USC does not do well in Corvallis. Just a fact.

If this game was at the Colliseum, lay the 28 and relax.
Click to expand...

true but this is the best i have seen USC defensively in a while and it is the worst i have seen oregon in the last few years.

But maybe you are right because the line is going down, but we will see when it gets closer to game time.

If i take USC i would lean over as well
 
Good point Jpicks, everyone on SC.

The MOST important thing I have learned in my short time in capping is identifying the KNOWNS VS. THE UNKOWNS OR STAYING AWAY FROM ALL UNCERTAINTY.

-----the hard part is capping is based on ASSUMPTIONS, and if you assume wrong, you lose.

I think there is still some uncertainty to USC. Just how good is this defense? The certainty, I assume, is they are better than average and the offense is better than average but uncertainty is can Oregon State get 21-28 here??? I think OSU possibly can.

The other certainty is this Oregon State D is replacing almost entire front 7, is horrible against the run, lost to Stanford, flat out is IMO one of the worst Oregon State teams I've seen in awhile, but still some assumptions on my part.

The other certainty is USC has played badly in Corvales. This is fact, but are we assuming too much because look at how good Oregon State was those years and the conditoins for the one game in the fog. Also, was USC coming off of a bye week those years (USC Off bye incredible), and were they opening Pac 10 play those years?? (In SOME cases can give teams more focus and better energy.)

---So what I am assuming is USC is going to get theres on a defense I am pretty certain is not that good. I say high 30s to possibly low 50s.

---The other part is uncertainty IMO. Could USC get out to a big half time lead and let it down for a backdoor, yes. Could the OSU offense just be the best test against a USC defense that has not had a real test to expose some things to work on and get better, yes. Ohio State did move the ball in the first half before things came crashing down. The Beaver offense is not a great Beaver offense to say the least, I'm not sold on Moeva, I think it's a lateral swing pass offense. The OLine is not performing up to expectations. They do have some great receivers. But they are not horrible. This is an inconference game and so OSU knows USC inside and out which lends an advantage. I do like OSU to utilize quick passes against USC blitzes and be effective because that's part of OSU's offense. Speed of USC defense will be tough though.


---All in all, I *think* USC will cover the large spread, but I am not certain. Hope that helps, lol.
 
O-State said:
Also, was USC coming off of a bye week those years (USC Off bye incredible), and were they opening Pac 10 play those years?? (In SOME cases can give teams more focus and better energy.)
Click to expand...

Here we go:
2007 v. OSU w24-3 non-bye non-PAC-10 Opener
2006 @OSU L33-31 after bye non PAC-10 opener
2005 did not play
2004 @OSU w28-20 non-bye non-opener
2003 v. OSU w52-28 after bye non-opener
2002 @OSU w22-10 non-bye PAC-10 Opener

Take 'em for what they're worth. Unless some forensics expert can disect something else out of this all I can get is they haven't covered what will be this weeks spread in the past six years.

Also bear in mind that in 2004 when they won it all by beating #3 OK 55-19 & had arguably their best team in recent history, they only beat OSU by 8. One could argue this OSU team is worse than in 2004 but they went 7-5 that year.
 
I just went to vegasinsider.com and saw the consensus for the over on the USC/Orest game and its at 98% on the over!!!!

you almost have to take the under with a consensus like that. Is that accurate?

But i still cant see this game going under even if Oregon does cover or not, if they do cover i would imagine them to do so by putting up points, not by there defense

Anyone have a confident pick on this game yet???
 
its a beauty contest this yr as well and with a national stage and off a bye, carroll will still be throwing the ball with 4minutes left up by 35
 
A few points I will make...I took SC -23 FYI

In no particular order

1) The Beaver defense is bad. 7.5 yards per rushing attempt so far this year
2) This is the best SC team the last 5 years. I was joking, but this defense could hold up against Canadian Football League teams. Really.
3) The Beaver DL will get mauled and I bet SC easily rushes for 200+
4) Sanchez will have all day to throw back there. I think the Beavers have 3 sacks on the year.
5) The Beavers struggle with uber athletic teams. Always have and this is the most athletic team in the country.
6) Mouvao is awful. He may be the 2nd worst QB right now in the PAC
7) The Beaver offense will have a hard time scoring over 10 here and their defense shows no signs of holding SC to under 35-38.
8) SC should be able to name their score if they play SC football and don't dink around.

The PAC is down, but this is the best team I've seen out of the PAC the L5Y. This defense is simply amazing and the offense is no slouch. Part of the problem SC has had with OSU is the same as any. This isn't to be racist, but OSU has got a lot of Pacific Islanders on that squad and this is the smallest group SC has had in recent years. Put those two together and it's a huge rivalry and things get out of hand. Not in a bad way, but emotions take over instead of playing sound football, IMO.

I think Marlo said it, but why wouldn't SC cover this line in the Thursday spotlight game. On paper they should win by 30+ despite being on the road in a place where they've "struggled" recently. This is a different SC team. I see no other team beating them this year.
 
E.T.G. said:
its a beauty contest this yr as well and with a national stage and off a bye, carroll will still be throwing the ball with 4minutes left up by 35
Click to expand...

Herein lies the difficulty with this decision.

I can almost guarantee CKR will either be on OSU or lean that way on value alone. Which is normally hard to disagree with BUT as ETG put it Carroll is out for blood. He knows he giftwrapped LSU's championship last year. The players, the staff, and even the fanbase are focused on one thing and I dont see them letting the Beavers get in the way of that goal.

The talent disparity is overwhelming and for one quarter at the most the Beavers might be able to hang. Eventually the adrenaline wears off (see LSU vs Auburn) and the horses get to running. The # IS a tad large this early in the season but I see Carroll as using that # as a gauge for success. With most teams its just to much but the situation begs you to take OSU and I just dont see the Trojans letting up until less than 5 minutes remain in the game. If I could grab 23 I would nail it. 24 seems like an easy cover as well. North of that you have to treat it as a lean/small play but USC IS the right side turnovers pending.
 
Conference road games have not went the Trojans way ATS, in the past few years. But, I don't think that this is the game to take OSU and the points.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that the Beaver's have enough talent. There will be be a time to fade USC ATS, when they are on the road. But, it might not come until the AZ game. I don't think that Wash. St. will be able to cover, either, unless the books overreact.

Like some have said, this isn't the past few year's Trojan team. IMO Both sides of the ball are better. IMO The Beavers are definitely worse than their past few years.

I think OSU will have to play ball control, create turnovers, recover onside kicks (I hope they took notes from the Jets), and hope that USC has a bad game, to have a chance to keep this one close. If that doesn't work, they hope that the fog will roll in and cut into the field visibility.

I think the over will hit, unless USC shuts them down to about 10 or less. The Beavers should be fired up, at home, and score around 14-17. Then, USC would have to score around 40-45 to cover (depending on when you lock it in). If OSU can score more than that, then that would make the over safer than laying the points.

So, I think OSU's offense against USC's defense will be the key to making money. Just my $O.O2 :cheers:
 
ive decided...im taking USC and the over, the only thing that was scaring me was that the public was all over them, but this USC is like the patriots of college football this year, and i never hopped on the patriots train last year until the playoffs (which they never fuckin covered)

so BOL to all of you
 
I look at it this way.The pub loves the over and USC on a nationally televised game.The books show a low total for this one with 52 and a low spread for the #1 team at 22.It is now 25 and getting pounded still on USC.LSU is a 24 point fave against a SEC team at home who can beat most teams in the Pac-10.All I am saying is it is really a low spread and total for a team who is suppose to beat the shit out of little ole OSU,on national tv with USC being the media darling. Looks too easy and nothing is ever easy with this business. I will probably take OSU tomorrow after the pub keeps driving up the spread and may take the under also.
 
pags11 said:
my first rule in betting college football is: don't bet against Pete Carroll...ever...
Click to expand...


If you did what you say and bet ON Pete the last 3 regular seasons you'd be 18-18 ATS.

The real cash cow w/ Petey has been the under....he's gone UNDER 18/24 the past 2 seasons.

Maybe UNDER 53...hope USC D holds em to less than 13:popcorn:
 
Very difficult game to get a good read on, and most of us would probably leave this alone if it was on Saturday.

I think eveyone agrees that USC is the superior team here, but is the defense really as dominant as they have shown in the first two games? Virginia is flat out pathetic, and Ohio St couldn't get the offense going against anybody without Wells and with Boeckman at QB.

I'm also not sold yet that this is the best USC team of the last few years, it's way too early to even hint at that, and this is their first road and conference game of the season.

I can see USC winning by 28 here, but everything about this line is telling me to take the home dog and the points. With the total of 52 they are telling me that USC is going to completely shut down the Beavers, but I honestly don't see that happening.

I'm going to fight every degenerate bone in my body and just leave this one alone, I think it's the right thing to do.
 
aplous said:
If you did what you say and bet ON Pete the last 3 regular seasons you'd be 18-18 ATS.

The real cash cow w/ Petey has been the under....he's gone UNDER 18/24 the past 2 seasons.

Maybe UNDER 53...hope USC D holds em to less than 13:popcorn:
Click to expand...

That 18-18 ATS record is due to the huge spreads the Trojans face every week.

So, thinking about it from pags perspective, he's absolutely right. Why bet against Pete when he covers those ridicuously high spreads half the time? I lean USC here, but it would kill me to lay 25.5 on the road.

:popcorn:
 
You've gotta figure though, that the PAC 10 collectively is on their way to being a middle of the pack conference this year. This means that if things keep going how they're going, the one loss winners of the SEC and Big 12 may very well pass up an undefeated USC team to go to the MNC game; UNLESS Southern Cal wins these type of games convincingly (i.e. cover these spreads) in order for the pollsters to see them as one of the best two teams in the nation. I think that Pete is well aware of this, and is more than willing to beat an Oregon St all the way to the Fat Lady.
 
I'm also not sold yet that this is the best USC team of the last few years, it's way too early to even hint at that, and this is their first road and conference game of the season.

No way this team is better than the Leinhart, bush, lendale, jarret, smith and company had.
 
Why not look at the Oregon State team total . Would think they need to score 14 to cover . Granted 13 would be the perfect TT to play with a 25 spread on 52 total but it seems like the best option and one can still play USC if thats what they prefer....
 
SportsNut said:
Why not look at the Oregon State team total . Would think they need to score 14 to cover . Granted 13 would be the perfect TT to play with a 25 spread on 52 total but it seems like the best option and one can still play USC if thats what they prefer....
Click to expand...

Fucking brilliant. I didn't even think about that SN. You got me looking hard at that.I can't believe the line is dropping as we speak.It has to be smart money.Those fuckers got it around 21 and now betting it at 25. I bet you this is whats going on. A middle. I think OSU can get 17 -21 on USC but did lean under as well.hmmm.
 
i will preface this with the fact that i am fighting my addiction not to play these crazy games tonight...

ohio state scored 3 points. how does ore st get to 17-21? i don't get it guys.
 
scraps@midnight said:
i will preface this with the fact that i am fighting my addiction not to play these crazy games tonight...

ohio state scored 3 points. how does ore st get to 17-21? i don't get it guys.
Click to expand...


Because I capped the game at OSU scoring 17.Thats why.Maybe we all are putting too much thought in a shitty ohio state team.Also I believe USC was giving it there all against Ohio State.Letdown spot for USC maybe. Not saying they lose because they won't just might not match that intensity they had for Ohio State. In gambling,expect the unexpected every day. Just trying to make a dollar Scraps and looking for any edge on this game.
 
i hear you nawlins. i'm just not sure ore st can score even if usc mails this in. ohio st surely is not the power house some expected however they are far superior to ore st. just trying not to miss the obvious here. good luck whatever you decide, as i mentioned...trying to sit this one out. i am leaning hard on laying the massive wood though...
 
scraps@midnight said:
i hear you nawlins. i'm just not sure ore st can score even if usc mails this in. ohio st surely is not the power house some expected however they are far superior to ore st. just trying not to miss the obvious here. good luck whatever you decide, as i mentioned...trying to sit this one out. i am leaning hard on laying the massive wood though...
Click to expand...


Scraps I know its tempting.Hell I am tempted to lay the wood on USC. Don't do it. It may cover but it is probably the public play of the week. Everybody is in love with USC. I am just trying to find some action tonight.Playing real small if I do tonight.I don't like anything till Saturday and should just sit out but the degenerate in me is saying make a bet big boy..your the man...when I am clearly not.

Oregon State can score.They have some very good WR's. USC likes to blitz a lot and if they can get some completions off hot reads they will move the chains.The question is can they punch it in or will there suspect kicker come through on 30-45 yard field goals.
 
Here's some food for thought:

I've got the line now at 26.5. The final line between these two teams over the last 30 years has only exceeded this number ONE time (1982, 30).

The line hasn't been this high between these two teams in Corvalis in at least the past 30 years. (As far as my database goes back)

The last time USC beat OSU in Corvalis by this margin or greater was 1990.
 
CroPro said:
line for USC down to -24.5? What does this say boys?
Click to expand...

Books going to reel them in tonight.

This line has moved up and down all week.I still think it goes back up.Wait till those Cali boys get off work and start putting their bets in.

I may be wrong but its one sided basically in this game.
 
i got scared haha...im just going to play the under. I only like USC but the whole world is betting on them, and i dont feel comfortable betting on Ore

Under it is...BOL
 
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