Can someone explain to me..

[bluedevilboy]

How an 0-6 Rice Owls team is laying 4.5 points on the ROAD at 2-4 UTSA? Look, I completely understand the Roadrunners squad has tons of major issues on offense and defense. But my power numbers say Rice is 0.06 pts better with the home field edge factored in. Essentially a 50/50 ball game and I’m getting +170 on the ML

 

[twinkie13]

I’m guessing the rumors that the coach may be out at UTSA? That’s all I can think of, so affect the team

 

[B.A.R.]

I was wondering the same thing when I looked at lines but I don't really follow these teams as much as others.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Rice is 0-6, but look at their schedule.....this will be their easiest game by a mile.....

 

[s--k]

10/12 UAB was -12 at UTSA, UAB won by 19

10/5 UAB was -10 home vs Rice, UAB won by 15

Phil Steele rates the UTSA HF advantage at 2.75 and UAB at 3.

With no adjustment for game results or performance, if we flipped the UAB - UTSA game to neutral that would mean a UAB -14.75. If we moved the UAB - Rice game to neutral that would mean a UAB -7.

14.75 - 7 = Rice a 7.75 pt favorite vs UTSA.

Spreads don't always work out mathematically like that, but that is one explanation.

 

[EL CAPO]

rice is a different team if they play against a team with no explosiveness on offense. Look at the army game. They play hard and hold up in the run game. UTSA is very anemic

 

[s--k]

I don't make or use power ratings, but do have access to pointwise's weekly power rating. They have Rice at 29 and UTSA at 18 with a 2pt HF for the dome.

29 is same as Ball ST, ECU, ODU, Ore ST, UNLV - compared to that, I would say Rice at 29 is too high. I would favor all those teams over Rice except maybe ODU. 18 is same as UConn, NMSt, UTEP - based on that, I would say 18 is about right for UTSA.

 

[s--k]

Speaking of explosiveness, Rice is on par with UTSA.

Through 6 games for each team compared here: 20+ yard plays, Rice ranks 128th with 14. UTSA ranks 123rd with 17. Oklahoma is the leader with 60.

Both these defenses are probably going to matchup well with pretty pedestrian offensive units.

 

[2daBank]

Rice is 0-6, but look at their schedule.....this will be their easiest game by a mile.....

I thought they showed themselves really well in few games early on. Havnt paid much attention lately but seems like best chance for them to get a W.

 

[s--k]

I watched all of the Rice first half vs UAB. If Rice can play like that on O for 4 quarters they will win. But it was kind of an unexpected thing to see them drive the ball that well and score 3 TDs in one half. Their game vs LaTech, which I did not see, but appeared to be a really strong effort out of them as well that they could've won.

UTSA D isn't good, but probably can match what Rice O wants to do. The question is...what can UTSA O do?

 

[M.W.]

How an 0-6 Rice Owls team is laying 4.5 points on the ROAD at 2-4 UTSA? Look, I completely understand the Roadrunners squad has tons of major issues on offense and defense. But my power numbers say Rice is 0.06 pts better with the home field edge factored in. Essentially a 50/50 ball game and I’m getting +170 on the ML

Rice's schedule is 13 points per game tougher.

 

[M.W.]

Rice's schedule is 13 points per game tougher.

Or to put it another way, the six teams Rice has lost to are, on average, 26 points better than UTSA.

 

[bluedevilboy]

If Rice wins their first game I’ll cut my losses..I bet UTSA o2.5 wins before the season I just need a victory here or against ODU

 

[bluedevilboy]

UTSA wins 31-27!!!!! I trust my numbers (Jeff sagarin’s which showed rice by 0.06 with the UTSA HFA. Basically a coin flip game I got +200 on the ML

 

[B.A.R.]

UTSA wins 31-27!!!!! I trust my numbers (Jeff sagarin’s which showed rice by 0.06 with the UTSA HFA. Basically a coin flip game I got +200 on the ML

Yup, superior team.

 

[s--k]

UTSA wins 31-27!!!!! I trust my numbers (Jeff sagarin’s which showed rice by 0.06 with the UTSA HFA. Basically a coin flip game I got +200 on the ML

Always, always, always trust yourself.

If you are like me, if you trust yourself and make your own decisions you can handle any potential outcome and sleep at night.

But if you sway from your convictions for whatever reason, stay off a game or flip a game and then see your original side win that you would've had - bad news, hard to handle. I can't handle that. I handle me losing by me being bad. I can't handle me losing by somebody else being bad.

Always trust yourself, win lose or draw.

Good job. Offensive explosion down there in the Dome!