Can any of the warm weather teams win?

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

I have a rule, that I never bet dome or warm weather teams in the cold. It is a losing proposition over time, and I don't make bets that are proven to have a negative expectation over time.

That being said, I like San Fran quite a bit this weekend. I'm riding a +1000 future on them, and I think there is a very good chance they make it to the NFC Champ game. I think they can win in Green Bay, as I don't think the Packers are very good. Not sure I like it enough to bet it though...

I think SD has NO SHOT in Cincy. Aside from Rivers, I see nothing that gives them a shot in the cold against a decent defense. As much as I will be rooting for SD, I think this line should be 10.5.

NO - they just stink outside. And its going to be cold in Philly, and the crowd will be knee walking drunk by 8 pm. They haven't had playoffs in Philly in a long time, and as counterfeit as I think that team and their coach are, I think they make it one more week before they get spanked. So, I give the Saints almost no shot.

Do any of you who are unbiased with your fan allegiances really give these teams a shot?

tipyerbartender1 · Dec 30, 2013

At least San Fran plays outside, and the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco and all that stuff. I still like the Pack at Lambeau and Rodgers with a game under his belt. If the Niners go in there and win, I'll be impressed.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

Yeah, San Fran probably doesn't qualify as a true warm weather team. I like them because they play defense and Green Bay doesn't. If the Niners run gore till his legs fall off and don't turn the ball over, they should win by 10...

Streakin · Dec 30, 2013

I agree on Cincy, doggy. But Dalton always gives the other team a chance.

D-Woww · Dec 30, 2013

id amend your theory by saying i look to fade warm weather or dome teams on the road who pass a lot. teams with a strong run game can play in any weather. but some of the bombs guys like Brees throw so well indoors dont get where they are supposed to go as much in the cold

nbafan88 · Dec 30, 2013

There is a snow storm coming to the northeast on Thursday/Friday... High of 18 on Friday for my city. Low of 3

it's probably going to be in the high 20s on Saturday during the day and in the teens during the Philly game

orangemonk · Dec 30, 2013

It was pretty cold last night when Rodgers threw his bomb to Cobb to win the game. Think the cold weather/warm weather team thing is grossly overstated.

nbafan88 · Dec 30, 2013

I don't think the cold weather hinders the passing game. Only wind. The packers are very very used to cold weather. Not an issue, if anything it helps them

orangemonk · Dec 30, 2013

Just saying Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb didn't play any games in the cold this year, they looked fine. Agree, wind/snow/rain definitely have some impact based on how the team is built, pure temperature probably does not -- at least to the point to say team A. Is from a warm climate so they'll do worse in a cold climate. For example the panthers seem to be built to play well in a cold weather game, although the sample sizes we get probably won't ever lead to data that's worth anything.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

But if you look back over history, warm weather/dome teams have struggled in the cold. I think there is something to be said for being used to practicing and living in areas where it is cold, and showing up from someplace where its 70 degrees and being expected to play well when its 20.

orangemonk · Dec 30, 2013

I haven't seen a stat that shows cold weather affecting warm weather teams. Domes you could sell me on as there is a clear difference between grass and turf, and teams built to play on turf may have trouble adjusting to the footing, but weather itself I don't think there's much, if any, difference. These guys are professional athletes that have played a cold weather game at some point, they know what it's like to feel chilly.

tipyerbartender1 · Dec 30, 2013

Interestingly, this weekend we get a rematch of one of the greatest playoff examples of cold weather playing a large part in halting one of the greatest warm climate offenses in NFL history, Air Coryell. That day was pretty fucking cold though.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

tipyerbartender said:
Interestingly, this weekend we get a rematch of one of the greatest playoff examples of cold weather playing a large part in halting one of the greatest warm climate offenses in NFL history, Air Coryell. That day was pretty fucking cold though.

Phenomenal game Tip. Loved me some Fouts and the Air Coryell offense.

Orange – I’d disagree. Take someone from Miami to Wisconsin in the winter. They’ll be bitching about the cold way more than the dude who lives there. Not even sure how you can argue this one?
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tipyerbartender1 · Dec 30, 2013

doggy, the game the week before in Miami probably got Kellen Winslow into the HOF all by itself. Many people attribute that game as the reason the Chargers spit the bit in Cincy. They weren't cold, just gassed. But I think they were cold. I can remember Fouts' face like yesterday, dude was cold. As in, he wanted to crawl under a blanket by the fire.

Joe Public · Dec 30, 2013

I think SD has NO SHOT in Cincy.

Cosign.

The Andy Dalton point is a valid one, though. I'd feel better about Cincy winning by 20 if I felt more confident in Dalton. But I do think SD gets their shit pushed in.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

I remember Fouts face too Tip. Eyes glazed over, beard all frozen. He looked beyond miserable.

Joe P - holy shit, I guess the Browns have to can a coach for you to come visit these days. Good to see you around.

Mo · Dec 30, 2013

Im still pulling for the saints

Joe Public · Dec 30, 2013

Ha. Thanks, D-Oh-Double-G.

I've been way too busy. Thank God, too, because according to my contest plays both here and otherwise, I'd have finished below .500 this year. That's what happens when you can't actually watch the games, I suppose. Ha.

Since we're sort of talking about all the games, I'm with you on Cincy, I really want to like KC given the spot—which kind of sucks because I think Indy is fun to watch. I wish this wasn't the matchup.

I also want to like NO because, as you say, the Birds (much as I love them) really are a paper tiger. Again, it would have been nice had either the Birds traveled to NO this week or had that matchup been next week in the dome. Get Philly on a fast track and as good as their defense has been this year, which is all relative, but for what at least I expected them to be, they've been great. Anyway, as good as they've been or could be, Brees would kill this team indoors.

I also want to like SF, is that so wrong?

=)

Lareux · Dec 30, 2013

Joe Public said:
I think SD has NO SHOT in Cincy.

Cosign.

The Andy Dalton point is a valid one, though. I'd feel better about Cincy winning by 20 if I felt more confident in Dalton. But I do think SD gets their shit pushed in.

Yeah, and the NFL didn't do SD any favors by having them play at 1pm ET. There's no reason SD/Cin shouldn't have been the first game on Saturday. Everyone knows how West Coast teams fare when they have to play at essentially 10am their time....and it's not pretty.

I just don't understand how/why the NFL would do this to SD? Maybe to make up for the missed call on the FG by Succop to win the game in the 4th quarter? I just figured that no-call was a "make up" call to Pit for that gift-wrapped SB they won a few years ago in Bettis' swan song.

Joe Public · Dec 30, 2013

Here's the thing to know about the NFL, which you probably already do, but it can't be repeated enough. They don't give a shit about these teams or these players. They're about maximizing revenue. Which isn't a judgment, it's just how it is.

So they want to put the teams with the most traction on in the best time slots. They figure the number of people who care about the Bengals outside of Ohio can be counted on one hand and, well, fuck San Diego. Anybody who tells you SD brings the SoCal market is selling you a load of shit.

They're trying to get that game out of the way, plain and simple, that it fucks the Chargers is really just too bad for the team and their fans.

tipyerbartender1 · Dec 30, 2013

Yeah. I could have pretty much predicted the time slots of the games, and the west team traveling east wouldn't have even entered my mind.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

I'm pysched for these games actually. The fact that I'm holding Chief and Niners futures probably has something to do with it, but hell, what's not to like when three of the four games have lines under 3?

I'm just glad I don't have to watch Miami play in the postseason. Not sure what it is about that team right now, but they are just miserable to watch.

austinhous · Dec 30, 2013

Lareux said:
Everyone knows how West Coast teams fare when they have to play at essentially 10am their time....and it's not pretty.

I fucked around with the database after reading this since it got me thinking. The database goes back to 1989. The 4 Pacific Coast teams just finished 10-4 ATS in the Eastern time zone this season. And the Chargers are 16-11-1 ATS (avg line 3.1) in the Eastern time zone in December/January. I know that may seem arbitrary, but like I said, just effing around w/ it playing devil's advocate.

Like you mentioned, this will actually be the Chargers' earliest start time since 2010, and - to confirm what you are saying - when you add up all the games that the Pacific Coast teams started before 10:30 AM in the Eastern time zone since 1989:

SU:	37-82-0 (-5.87, 31.1%)
ATS:	48-69-2 (-1.71, 41.0%)

tipyerbartender1 · Dec 30, 2013

austinhous said:
I fucked around with the database after reading this since it got me thinking. The database goes back to 1989. The 4 Pacific Coast teams just finished 10-4 ATS in the Eastern time zone this season. And the Chargers are 16-11-1 ATS (avg line 3.1) in the Eastern time zone in December/January. I know that may seem arbitrary, but like I said, just effing around w/ it playing devil's advocate.

Like you mentioned, this will actually be the Chargers' earliest start time since 2010, and - to confirm what you are saying - when you add up all the games that the Pacific Coast teams started before 10:30 AM in the Eastern time zone since 1989:

SU: 37-82-0 (-5.87, 31.1%)
ATS: 48-69-2 (-1.71, 41.0%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Damn, you beat me to it. I was just playing around with the same numbers. Except I have no database.

orangemonk · Dec 30, 2013

scdoggy said:
 Phenomenal game Tip. Loved me some Fouts and the Air Coryell offense.

Orange – I’d disagree. Take someone from Miami to Wisconsin in the winter. They’ll be bitching about the cold way more than the dude who lives there. Not even sure how you can argue this one?

well I guess what I'm saying is that not every person on the not playoff bound Miami Dolphins is from a warm weather climate. Many of these guys have played in the cold before at some level, whether it be pee-wee, college, or previous pro games. If you think about it, being cold should only affect the quarterbacks throwing hand, which he keeps warm in a towel while on the field and plenty warm under heaters while on the sideline. The cold is going to be miserable for everyone playing, not just the team who plays their home games in warm weather.

twinkie13 · Dec 30, 2013

Its the road, it aint the cold

Brees played at Purdue.

twinkie13 · Dec 30, 2013

Mo said:
Im still pulling for the saints

:thumbsup2:

scdoggy · Jan 1, 2014

Found an article written in 2006 with this stat:

Dome teams are just 15-45 (.250) on the road in the postseason.

orangemonk · Jan 1, 2014

I believe that, when domes were AstroTurf it was even bigger of a difference between that and real grass. Still don't buy the temperature argument.

tee*dub · Jan 1, 2014

my favorite weekend every year is "wild card weekend" love every match up and all very bettable games....

also pet peeve of mine with random reference above--- as Mark Twain always gets credited for "coldest winter I ever spent" quote: more info below:

“The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.”
The coolest thing Mark Twain never said.

While usually attributed to him, the actual source of these words is unknown
and there is no evidence that Mark Twain ever said this.

orangemonk · Jan 2, 2014

Bill Barnwell to the rescue

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10230516/bill-barnwell-saturday-nfl-playoff-games

[h=3]Home Truths From Abroad[/h]Let's start with the broadest fact: The Saints were much better at home than they were on the road this year. In New Orleans, the Saints went undefeated for the second time in three seasons. They scored 34 points per game and won their average contest by more than 18 points, producing nearly two takeaways for every giveaway. Once they flew out of Louisiana, the Saints were a mere 3-5. They were outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game on the road, and that unstoppable offense could only muster 17.8 points per contest. Their lowest-scoring game at home was 23 points, a figure they only topped twice on the road all season.
There are reasons to be skeptical that the difference is quite as severe as that paragraph makes it out to be. For one, a lot of this is driven by the difference in their records in the two locales as opposed to their actual level of play, and I don't know that their performance gap matches up with their win-loss figures. Consider that the Saints were probably lucky to win their game against the 49ers at home after that phantom penalty on Ahmad Brooks and likewise lost in the last moments of key road games against the Panthers and Patriots, two of the best teams in football. Those were all games where the outcome, win or loss, massively overstates the difference in play between the two teams. So flip the wins and losses in those games for a second. If the Saints are 7-1 at home (having credited them with a loss for the 49ers game) and 5-3 on the road (having now won the Patriots and Panthers games), are we even having this discussion about their performance on the road? Probably not. And if the discussion comes down to what happened in three or four plays across a number of weeks, it's probably not as meaningful as it suggests itself to be.
Oh, and about the Panthers and Patriots? They're really good football teams, and the Saints played a lot of those on the road this year. The Saints also lost on the road to the Seahawks and beat the Bears, neither of which is a fun place to tread. The disconcerting losses on the road were to the Rams and Jets, games in which they faced uncommon circumstances. In the Rams game, Brees threw interceptions on his first two possessions, with one deep in his own territory and the other in the Rams end zone, with both subsequent Rams drives producing touchdowns. St. Louis then delivered an unexpected onside kick to set up a field goal and go up 17-0 at the beginning of the second quarter. I don't know any team that does well after going down 17-0 on the road after a quarter. I will admit that I can't explain the Jets game. I think we should wait for its 'B' sample to get tested before we jump to any conclusions.
DVOA is very useful[SUP]3[/SUP] for analyzing things like home and road splits because it puts performance into context; just about every team is worse on a play-by-play basis on the road than it is at home, so the question should really be about whether they're abnormally worse on the road. (It also adjusts for quality of opposition, so no arguments from that perspective, either.) And if we all go take a look at the Saints' rank in DVOA on offense and defense split by their presence at home and on the road, it clears this all up as, um …
<aside class="mod-inline content-box border-full full">[TABLE="class: alt-rows"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH]Year[/TH]
[TH]Off-Home[/TH]
[TH]Off-Away[/TH]
[TH]Diff[/TH]
[TH]Def-Home[/TH]
[TH]Def-Away[/TH]
[TH]Diff[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: last"]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]-15[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

</aside>… a really meaningful, tangible thing! Well, that's more complicated than I imagined. The Saints go from being the league's best offense to being the league's average offense when they leave the Superdome, while the defense goes from very good to mediocre. That seems to fit the popular perception. And, of course, that matches up with how the Saints performed during their 2009-11 run of playoff teams with Sean Payton and Brees at their mercurial best, right?
<aside class="mod-inline content-box border-full full">[TABLE="class: alt-rows"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH]Year[/TH]
[TH]Off-Home[/TH]
[TH]Off-Away[/TH]
[TH]Diff[/TH]
[TH]Def-Home[/TH]
[TH]Def-Away[/TH]
[TH]Diff[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: last"]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]-15[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]-2[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]-12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

</aside>Oh, great. That doesn't help things at all. In 2010, the Saints — with the same philosophy and a fair number of the same players — were much better on the road than they were at home.[SUP]4[/SUP] In 2011, they were basically the same team at home and on the road, relative to the rest of the league. In 2009, they weren't much different on offense. This suggests that there's no real indication the Saints are significantly better at home than they are on the road.
<figure class="full">

<figcaption><cite>Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images</cite></figcaption></figure>[h=3]'Cross the Brees[/h]OK. Let's drill down a little further. When people talk about the Saints and their struggles away from home, they're not suggesting that there's something about Junior Galette's pass-rush essence in the Superdome that loses its aura once he hops on a plane.[SUP]5[/SUP] When they say the Saints need to play in the Superdome to win, they're talking about New Orleans's pass-happy scheme and their star quarterback. They want you to believe that Brees isn't anywhere near as good when he's freezing his ass off as he is when he's inside the Superdome. Well, is he?
These sorts of questions are only posed toward quarterbacks who play their home games in warm weather,[SUP]6[/SUP] and it's a question that's always unfairly biased because of one simple factor: When it gets cold, they're always playing on the road, and just about every quarterback's statistics at home are better than they are on the road, regardless of whether they play their home games in Miami or Minnesota.
So, keeping that in mind, here are Brees's numbers as a Saints quarterback split by the temperature given by the NFL at kickoff, with games played inside split off into their own category:
<aside class="mod-inline content-box border-full full">[TABLE="class: alt-rows"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH]Situation[/TH]
[TH]Games[/TH]
[TH]Cmp[/TH]
[TH]Att[/TH]
[TH]Cmp%[/TH]
[TH]Yds[/TH]
[TH]Yds/Att[/TH]
[TH]TD[/TH]
[TH]INT[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Indoors[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]2,106[/TD]
[TD]3,078[/TD]
[TD]68.4%[/TD]
[TD]24,588[/TD]
[TD]8.0[/TD]
[TD]190[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Cold (21-40 F)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]274[/TD]
[TD]65.0%[/TD]
[TD]1,949[/TD]
[TD]7.1[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Mild (41-60 F)[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]328[/TD]
[TD]518[/TD]
[TD]63.3%[/TD]
[TD]3,591[/TD]
[TD]6.9[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Warm (61-80 F)[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]546[/TD]
[TD]812[/TD]
[TD]67.2%[/TD]
[TD]6,200[/TD]
[TD]7.6[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD]Hot (> 80 F)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]225[/TD]
[TD]344[/TD]
[TD]65.4%[/TD]
[TD]2,642[/TD]
[TD]7.7[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

</aside>Brees is better indoors than he is in any weather pattern. Once he gets outside, it doesn't seem to really matter all that much what the temperature's like. He's a little better in warmer weather than he is when it's colder, but is it materially different? It's a small sample at the extremes, but we're already purporting to know that Brees is worse in that extremely cold weather. Really, he's about the same in miserably cold weather as he is in scorching temperatures. When was the last time you read an article suggesting that Brees and the Saints offense couldn't handle the heat?[SUP]7[/SUP]
I don't see that the numbers suggest anything specific about Brees and his team that would make me think they can't play well on the road in cold weather. Well, except for one. Chase Stuart, as he often does, came up with the best stat of all: In the playoffs, dome-dwelling teams playing in temperatures below 35 degrees on the road are 3-22. The last time a team like that won was in 2004, when the Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay. That was the year Chip Kelly turned things around for his employer after years of misery and losing records. He was in his sixth year as offensive coordinator for the University of New Hampshire. 2004 was a long time ago, man.

Streakin · Jan 2, 2014

-30 windchill forecasted for Green Bay on Sunday?????? That is insane.

Does this affect one team more than the other? I know GB is used the cold, but that is crazy cold.

scdoggy · Jan 2, 2014

Orange - The dude writing that article is ignoring the most meaningful stat which is thrown in here at the end, which he nonchalantly dismisses:

"In the playoffs, dome-dwelling teams playing in temperatures below 35 degrees on the road are 3-22"

Brees individually may have respectable numbers when he plays outside, but I maintain my original stance on the subject based on that statistic alone. A team that is used to playing and practicing in a temperature controlled dome, will not fare as well as a team who gets to practice and prepare in those conditions. Certainly this is factored into the line, but I see a bet on the Saints this weekend as ignoring the history of what dome teams tend to do outside in the cold, which is lose..... Could they win this week? Sure, they could. Philly hasn't really done much of anything against a good team this year. But in my opinion a play on NO this week is just a bad move...

orangemonk · Jan 2, 2014

I said I buy the dome team argument since those teams are constructed to play >=50% of their games on a different surface. I think the article as a whole is debunking the cold weather narratives we often see with players . The dome teams have been historically unsuccessful franchises anyway, so while that stat is probably somewhat telling, let's be honest, the lions, Vikings, rams, and to a lesser extent falcons and saints teams that sneak into the playoffs probably aren't winning on the road in any conditions.

scdoggy · Jan 2, 2014

I guess I missed the gist of the article. I glazed over about midway through. Brain dead from Holiday fun, I guess.

So after all this back and forth, are you playing NO this weekend?

orangemonk · Jan 2, 2014

no sir, the snow makes me like philly but i'll probably just lay off as I have philly 33/1 future. I did play the pack a few days ago, but not because of temp, although with the windchill being so outrageous it will certainly be a factor and maybe that SF read option game goes to work...might be on the wrong side of that one. and bengals/KC teaser.

thought provoking and interesting discussion none the less.

scdoggy · Jan 2, 2014

Agree - me neither. I like Frisco in the Packers game though. Running game and defense are big advantages. Should be interesting to see how that one unfolds.

I actually think NO is much better than Philly, but I'm not betting them due to the dome team out in the cold thing.

Aside from KC, I'm having a hard time finding much to like in this slate of games.

Coverdatspred · Jan 2, 2014

Streakin said:
-30 windchill forecasted for Green Bay on Sunday?????? That is insane.

Does this affect one team more than the other? I know GB is used the cold, but that is crazy cold.

Neither team will be ready for that weather. They are calling for one of the coldest games in NFL history in GB this weekend. Now the thing to consider is that the Pack can practice in the cold and lots of guys on the roster have played in a very cold game before while the niners probably haven felt anything like it before. In GB they call it Packers weather. I wouldn't want to be catching any hard passes in that weather.

aplous · Jan 2, 2014

2 Chargers notes to everyone assured Cincy is winning:

-Bolts have one of the 2 best wins in the NFL this year.....at Denver (other being AZ at Sea)
-Bolts won 2 cold weather road games, at Denver and at KC ( I was at the game in KC, it was balls cold....20ish)

If a defense can stiffle Manning it cant do the same to Dalton? Just playing devil's advocate.....

Joe Public · Jan 2, 2014

Funny thing, Ap, I talked to Joe Public Sr. last night who as many know is a die-hard Donks fan. He was really happy to see SD likely not on the Broncos' radar. They're the team he fears the most in the playoffs, believe it or not.

That said, I think you can only put so much on that win at Denver being that it was a Thursday night game. Oddly, that would have been my only bet of the last eight or so weeks had that game been in SD. I was sure SD would win that game, only I didn't think it was a road game so when I re-read the schedule I just laid off. Bad move by me, point being, that spot was great for them.

I do think they play better than the line suggests, but I don't see them winning and kind of think Cincy finds a way to pull away late.

And by "pull away" I mean to win 23-13 or so. Ha.

Capaholic · Jan 2, 2014

aplous said:
2 Chargers notes to everyone assured Cincy is winning:

-Bolts have one of the 2 best wins in the NFL this year.....at Denver (other being AZ at Sea)
-Bolts won 2 cold weather road games, at Denver and at KC ( I was at the game in KC, it was balls cold....20ish)
If a defense can stiffle Manning it cant do the same to Dalton? Just playing devil's advocate.....

This

aplous · Jan 2, 2014

Joe Public said:
Funny thing, Ap, I talked to Joe Public Sr. last night who as many know is a die-hard Donks fan. He was really happy to see SD likely not on the Broncos' radar. They're the team he fears the most in the playoffs, believe it or not.

That said, I think you can only put so much on that win at Denver being that it was a Thursday night game. Oddly, that would have been my only bet of the last eight or so weeks had that game been in SD. I was sure SD would win that game, only I didn't think it was a road game so when I re-read the schedule I just laid off. Bad move by me, point being, that spot was great for them.

I do think they play better than the line suggests, but I don't see them winning and kind of think Cincy finds a way to pull away late.

And by "pull away" I mean to win 23-13 or so. Ha.

If SD wins Sunday they will be very much be on Denver's radar......

emkee · Jan 3, 2014

'The Saints have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams in general have a poor record in cold-weather games. In playoff games when the weather was 35 degrees or below, dome teams have won 3 of 25 games. The three exceptions: Minnesota in Green Bay in 2004, Atlanta in Green Bay in 2002 and Indianapolis in Kansas City in 1995.'

B.A.R. · Jan 3, 2014

emkee said:
'The Saints have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams in general have a poor record in cold-weather games. In playoff games when the weather was 35 degrees or below, dome teams have won 3 of 25 games. The three exceptions: Minnesota in Green Bay in 2004, Atlanta in Green Bay in 2002 and Indianapolis in Kansas City in 1995.'

:shake:

bones · Jan 3, 2014

http://www.latimes.com/sports/footb...armer-20140103,0,4880815.column#axzz2pLj47X8R

Green Bay's playoff history (going back and small sample) in extreme cold....interesting to see no advantage

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/tricks-of-the-trade-for-playing-in-a-freezing-game-in-green-bay-010214

Can any of the warm weather teams win?

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