California races

[daveniner]

Here are the driver matchups I am dealing with, for the 500.

Kahne -150
Stewart +120

Gordon -115
Johnson -115

Harvick even
Junior -130

Edwards -115
Ky. Busch -115

Biffle -145
Mears +115

Ku. Busch even
J. Burton -130

Bowyer -155
Newman +125

Truex -115
Martin -115

Sadler -170
Gilliland +140

Kenseth -110
Hamlin -110

 

[Fondybadger]

Is that for qualifying Dave?

 

[Fondybadger]

Either way good luck to you sir.

 

[madshooter]

dave, is that kurt busch even against Jeff Burton?

If so, Kurt has won the last two poles at Cali, seems odd that he would be the dog in that matchup.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

He's never got in the top 15 in either race last year despite sitting on pole though bro...so it makes a bit of sense..he's been saying their working on race setup a bunch more to fun consistent speed though..


“We’re probably best known right now for winning both poles at California during the 2006 season and we’d love to be even better known for winning both races at Fontana this year,” said Busch, who won this race in 2003 and has three top-five finishes in his nine career Cup starts here. “Last year, we certainly knew how to get our Miller Lite Dodge around there very fast for one lap. This year, we’re looking at what it takes to keep it fast for 250 laps.”

I was looking at the chassis Burton is running too though and it's been less than impressive..

Busch does offer value.

 

[madshooter]

He's never got in the top 15 in either race last year despite sitting on pole though bro...so it makes a bit of sense..he's been saying their working on race setup a bunch more to fun consistent speed though..


“We’re probably best known right now for winning both poles at California during the 2006 season and we’d love to be even better known for winning both races at Fontana this year,” said Busch, who won this race in 2003 and has three top-five finishes in his nine career Cup starts here. “Last year, we certainly knew how to get our Miller Lite Dodge around there very fast for one lap. This year, we’re looking at what it takes to keep it fast for 250 laps.”

I was looking at the chassis Burton is running too though and it's been less than impressive..

Busch does offer value.

my bad, I thought they were odds for qualifying matchups, not race matchups.:spank:

 

[daveniner]

Thanks for the thoughts, guys.

I can't get any lines for qualifying, sorry for the confusion.

Early thoughts:

I see some value with Smoke over Kahne, but will wait to see more practice speeds.

I think that you can take Johnson over Gordon every time they are matched against each other and you will profit.

Biffle looks good over Mears. I read Jump's thread about Biffle not having the same cars, from last year. But, I heard "the Biff" say that he has a capable car, in an interview after qualfiying. He knows how to drive this track and played it a little conservative in qualifying and practice.

Bowyer over Newman looks good, but it's pretty juiced.

Martin over Truex looks good, too.

I originally was thinking Gilliland over Sadler. But, after practice and qualifying, will have to rethink it. Sadler has a fast car, but didn't show it in qualifying. Gilliland said that they have to work on the car, as well. They're both starting in the back and Sadler has an interim crew chief.

An interesting side note is that they are running their first race with unleaded fuel. We might see some motor problems, Sunday. The Busch and Truck series have been using unleaded fuel, but they don't run 500 miles, so we will see how it plays out.

 

[daveniner]

No Busch matchups at VIP.

To win:

Kenseth +450 to win 2.25 units

Harvick +550 to win 2.2 units

J. Burton +700 to win 2.8 units

Good luck, everyone.

 

[madshooter]

nice call on kenseth

 

[daveniner]

Thanks, MS.

Driver matchups for the 500:

Johnson -175 over Gordon
Edwards -125 over Kyle

Both to win .5 unit

And:

Kenseth -130 over Hamlin
Gilliland +165 over Sadler

Both to win 1 unit

Top 5:

Bowyer (7 to 2) to win 1.4 units

GLTA

 

[JumpOnBoard]

BOL today Dave...

betting on the 99, 48 and 17 at Fontana should make for a nice day..

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Some pretty tough breaks there Dave...

Looking forward to making some money this year discussing these w/ ya...

BOL.

 

[TWITA]

If Gilliland and Bowyer finish one position better, you're looking at a hell of a day.

Tough break Dave. I look forward to your picks and discussion the rest of the year man.

 

[daveniner]

Thanks, guys. I don't want to sound like a whiner, but that's 2 races in a row that I've taken a hit on the last lap.:spank:

The Johnson matchup would've been a winner, too, if he would've passed Gordon on the last lap. He said, after ther race, that he would've tried harder if it wasn't his teammate.

:animated-Dead12:

 

[daveniner]

California results:

Busch to win 1-2 +1.45 units

Cup matchups 1-3 -1.11 units

Cup top 5 0-1 -.4 unit

Overall weekend 2-6 -.06 unit

Posted season record:

Busch 1-2 +1.45 units

Cup matcups 2-3 -.11 unit

Cup top 5 0-1 -.4 unit

Overall Cup record 2-4 -.51 unit

Kenseth winning Saturday saved me from having a terrible weekend. Vegas should be better. I just hate that it's 2 weeks from yesterday.