California vs. Oregon College Football Week 7 Picks
California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
Odds Breakdown
This season, Oregon has been favored in four games. In those four games, the Ducks are 0-4 ATS.
Tellingly, in those four games, the Ducks were only close to covering the spread against FCS Stony Brook.
In the other three games, the Ducks were not within a touchdown of covering.
As double-digit favorites against Cal, the Ducks are therefore an awful team to back.
Broad Explanation
There are two competing theories as to why the Ducks struggle so mightily as heavy favorites. Both theories are certainly true to some degree because they are interrelated.
When Mario Cristobal needed to hire an offensive coordinator, his two finalists were current offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and Will Hall.
Both offensive coordinators are known for their proclivity for running the ball, for running offenses that prioritize a good ground game.
Neither coordinator is known for featuring a pass-heavy offense. Enter Anthony Brown.
The current Duck quarterback is not a deep ball thrower. Frankly, it should generate a relief whenever Brown simply completes a pass. Currently, he is completing passes at a 56.1-percent rate.
Far from managing to connect on deep balls, Brown's inaccuracy is repeatedly evident in the most routine pass attempts. He is comparable to Florida quarterback Emory Jones, except he is slightly less incompetent as a passer but also not remotely as dangerous as a runner.
Mario Cristobal said it best in his press conference. Brown isn't the team's starting quarterback because he's shining in any respect. He just "does enough." This is coach-speak for: "the other quarterbacks don't do enough to replace him."
So, Oregon lacks the offensive game planning via the offensive coordinator and the personnel to throw the ball downfield -- or to throw the ball effectively at all.
If a team is going to cover a double-digit point spread without much of a pass attack, then it will need to run the ball extremely well.
So, the one theory for why the Ducks struggle to cover large spreads revolves around offensive style and personnel, the other theory suggests something more deliberate.
Oregon's offense seems to play vanilla against teams it knows it can beat. Similar to Notre Dame in the first three games of the 2018 season, the Ducks want to do just enough offensively to win -- that is, they won't want to create risks by being too aggressive -- while relying primarily on their defense to seal the deal.
It is likely, given the priority that Mario Cristobal places on physical football, that the Ducks think they can out-physical heavy underdogs.
So, they rely primarily on running the ball without being able to run away from the other team.
Duck Offense vs. Cal Defense
Star running back CJ Verdell would be a huge contributor to Oregon's chances of covering the spread on Friday because he could provide the star power on the ground that could help make up for the inept passing game.
However, CJ Verdell is out for the season. This deals a brutal blow to the Duck offense because he led the team in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns.
He owned a nice mix of physicality and speed while presenting sufficient versatility to serve as an effective pass-catching option out of the backfield.
Without Verdell, the Ducks will lean heavily on Travis Dye, much of whose success comes as a product of the change of pace that he brings to the fore.
However, without Verdell, there is no change of pace because there is no pace to change. There is only Dye.
The Golden Bear defense ranks nationally in the upper half at limiting opposing ground games in terms of rushing yards and YPC.
This Cal defense is well-tested, having navigated a TCU ground game that, unlike Oregon at the moment, boasts two high-level running backs.
Before limiting Washington State to 3.3 YPC last week, the Golden Bears held Washington running back Sean McGrew to almost half the rushing total that he amassed last week against the Beavers.
Cal has the defensive quality to handle one-dimensional, crucially beleaguered Oregon.
Cal Offense vs. Oregon Defense
It quite surprises me that Oregon still didn't manage to cover against Arizona because Arizona's quarterback situation is unspeakably abysmal.
Despite throwing five interceptions, the Wildcats scored 19 points and easily covered the spread.
Cal enjoys a massively better quarterback situation headed by veteran Chase Garbers whose characteristic efficiency enabled him to lead Cal to an upset win over Oregon last year.
The dual-threat Garbers will head a Cal offense that will play comfortably against a Duck defense that ranks 99th in sack rate.
A poor pass rush helps explain why Oregon has elected to have three freshmen Ducks on defense avoid redshirting.
Oregon's linebacking unit features so many freshmen also because three linebackers are out for the season.
Cal running backs therefore stand a stronger chance when they reach the second level of Oregon's defense in order to complement Garbers' more competent passing.
An experienced Golden Bear offensive line will outperform its Oregon counterpart, which allowed back-to-back sacks against Stony Brook.
Best Bet: Golden Bears +14 at -110 with BetOnline
California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
Odds Breakdown
This season, Oregon has been favored in four games. In those four games, the Ducks are 0-4 ATS.
Tellingly, in those four games, the Ducks were only close to covering the spread against FCS Stony Brook.
In the other three games, the Ducks were not within a touchdown of covering.
As double-digit favorites against Cal, the Ducks are therefore an awful team to back.
Broad Explanation
There are two competing theories as to why the Ducks struggle so mightily as heavy favorites. Both theories are certainly true to some degree because they are interrelated.
When Mario Cristobal needed to hire an offensive coordinator, his two finalists were current offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and Will Hall.
Both offensive coordinators are known for their proclivity for running the ball, for running offenses that prioritize a good ground game.
Neither coordinator is known for featuring a pass-heavy offense. Enter Anthony Brown.
The current Duck quarterback is not a deep ball thrower. Frankly, it should generate a relief whenever Brown simply completes a pass. Currently, he is completing passes at a 56.1-percent rate.
Far from managing to connect on deep balls, Brown's inaccuracy is repeatedly evident in the most routine pass attempts. He is comparable to Florida quarterback Emory Jones, except he is slightly less incompetent as a passer but also not remotely as dangerous as a runner.
Mario Cristobal said it best in his press conference. Brown isn't the team's starting quarterback because he's shining in any respect. He just "does enough." This is coach-speak for: "the other quarterbacks don't do enough to replace him."
So, Oregon lacks the offensive game planning via the offensive coordinator and the personnel to throw the ball downfield -- or to throw the ball effectively at all.
If a team is going to cover a double-digit point spread without much of a pass attack, then it will need to run the ball extremely well.
So, the one theory for why the Ducks struggle to cover large spreads revolves around offensive style and personnel, the other theory suggests something more deliberate.
Oregon's offense seems to play vanilla against teams it knows it can beat. Similar to Notre Dame in the first three games of the 2018 season, the Ducks want to do just enough offensively to win -- that is, they won't want to create risks by being too aggressive -- while relying primarily on their defense to seal the deal.
It is likely, given the priority that Mario Cristobal places on physical football, that the Ducks think they can out-physical heavy underdogs.
So, they rely primarily on running the ball without being able to run away from the other team.
Duck Offense vs. Cal Defense
Star running back CJ Verdell would be a huge contributor to Oregon's chances of covering the spread on Friday because he could provide the star power on the ground that could help make up for the inept passing game.
However, CJ Verdell is out for the season. This deals a brutal blow to the Duck offense because he led the team in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns.
He owned a nice mix of physicality and speed while presenting sufficient versatility to serve as an effective pass-catching option out of the backfield.
Without Verdell, the Ducks will lean heavily on Travis Dye, much of whose success comes as a product of the change of pace that he brings to the fore.
However, without Verdell, there is no change of pace because there is no pace to change. There is only Dye.
The Golden Bear defense ranks nationally in the upper half at limiting opposing ground games in terms of rushing yards and YPC.
This Cal defense is well-tested, having navigated a TCU ground game that, unlike Oregon at the moment, boasts two high-level running backs.
Before limiting Washington State to 3.3 YPC last week, the Golden Bears held Washington running back Sean McGrew to almost half the rushing total that he amassed last week against the Beavers.
Cal has the defensive quality to handle one-dimensional, crucially beleaguered Oregon.
Cal Offense vs. Oregon Defense
It quite surprises me that Oregon still didn't manage to cover against Arizona because Arizona's quarterback situation is unspeakably abysmal.
Despite throwing five interceptions, the Wildcats scored 19 points and easily covered the spread.
Cal enjoys a massively better quarterback situation headed by veteran Chase Garbers whose characteristic efficiency enabled him to lead Cal to an upset win over Oregon last year.
The dual-threat Garbers will head a Cal offense that will play comfortably against a Duck defense that ranks 99th in sack rate.
A poor pass rush helps explain why Oregon has elected to have three freshmen Ducks on defense avoid redshirting.
Oregon's linebacking unit features so many freshmen also because three linebackers are out for the season.
Cal running backs therefore stand a stronger chance when they reach the second level of Oregon's defense in order to complement Garbers' more competent passing.
An experienced Golden Bear offensive line will outperform its Oregon counterpart, which allowed back-to-back sacks against Stony Brook.
Best Bet: Golden Bears +14 at -110 with BetOnline
